Story of the Day:
Tim Martin – pub companies need to listen to their licensees: JD Wetherspoon founder Tim Martin has argued that major pub companies do not understand the threats to the sector as well as their licensees. In an article for Propel Opinion, he writes: “The last government’s approach to pubs was fraught with unintended consequences. It sought to reduce binge drinking by more regulation and higher taxes. This had the desired result (for them) of pushing up pub prices, but the unforeseen effect of reducing the average price for drinks as customers deserted pubs in their droves and switched to supermarkets. Each pint consumed at home also produced less tax for the government and fewer jobs for the country. A further unplanned consequence was that the 10,000 pub closures (so far) also had a malevolent effect on the delicate financial and social ecosystems in which they existed. Any town planner will tell you that successful high streets invariably comprise 30% to 40% or so of non-retail uses, including pubs, coffee shops, restaurants, bookmakers and so on. Since the pub is often the hub, closures have had a predictable knock-on effect on shops and other businesses, as well, reducing employment and tax revenue. The effects of pub closures and high street dereliction are most keenly felt in less well-off neighbourhoods – often in the north of England, Wales and Scotland. Customers in these areas can’t afford the widening differential between pub and supermarket prices. PLCs often boast about their exposure to the affluent south-east for this reason. There are many taxes and regulations which contribute to the problem but the main ones are VAT and rates – pubs pay 20% VAT on food sales and supermarkets almost nothing, and we pay an astronomic 15 pence or so a pint for rates, far more than the off-trade. In effect, the tax system, by charging supermarkets less, is encouraging the public to by-pass pubs, usually located in and around high streets, for mainly drive-to supermarkets. Faced with these economic mountains, there is little Mary Portas can do to fix the problem. Whether by instinct or analysis, publicans at the coal-face understand the threat from supermarkets and seek fairness from their pubco and political masters. A recent survey by Cardinal Research showed that 96% believe their companies should campaign for VAT parity and 94% recommend support for the VAT Club itself. Lessees are the strongest supporters with, for example, 100% of Enterprise and Marston’s tenants backing the Club. Yet the views of licensees are not universally supported in boardrooms – Enterprise and Marston’s, for example, have been mute, or almost mute, on the subject of VAT inequality. Why does this gap exist between the directors of some pubcos, their licensees and the rest of the industry?” (See the later Propel Opinion e-mail for the full article)
Industry News:
Survey finds correlation between Cask Marque accreditation and hygiene ratings: A survey has found that pubs that achieved Cask Marque accreditation also tend to have higher food hygiene ratings than non-accredited pubs – 87% of Cask Marque pubs have either four or five food hygiene stars compared to 67% of non-accredited pubs. Cask Marque director Paul Nunny said: “The results show that Cask Marque pubs, on average, deliver a better pint to their customers and the food hygiene scores prove they take pride in all aspects of retailing. On average cask ale makes up 31% of beer sales at Cask Marque pubs against 18% in non Cask Marque pubs. They also sold less standard but more premium lager. Overall beer sales were 3% higher at Cask Marque, which shows that quality cask beer drives increased trade and premiumise the outlet. Taken in context with the overall market, cask is still gaining market share and the above only confirms how good retailers are achieving their success.”
ALMR welcomes 24-hour weekend Tube plan: As Transport for London announced that it will implement 24-hour operation on the London Underground at weekends by 2015, the ALMR’s strategic affairs director, Kate Nicholls, said: “This is something we have been campaigning for over the past five years, and it will be a huge boost to pubs and bars in London when it is delivered. Customers coming in to go to the theatre or to shop will feel more comfortable staying for a drink or meal, confident that they can get home quickly and safely at the end of the night. We will finally have a modern transport system which meets the needs of a £1.5 billion industry. More importantly, later running of the Tube will make it safer for our staff and customers to get home and reduce crime, disorder and nuisance by encouraging gradual dispersal. That will be the biggest benefit – the trade will no longer get the blame for flashpoints caused by an inadequate transport infrastructure. London is one of the most-visited cities in the world and Leicester Square alone receives over 225,000 visitors on an average Saturday night. The West End Commission’s 2013 Report recommended an overhaul of London’s night-time transport arrangements to reflect the needs of patrons of the city’s night-time economy, as later operation will prevent flashpoints from developing.”
Coffee shops top venues for illicit trysts: A survey of 8,000 members by IllicitEncounters.com, the site that enables married people to cheat by providing a platform to hook up, has found coffee shops are rated as the best venues to meet up for illicit trysts. The top five venues were: 1 Costa Coffee, 2 Caffe Nero, 3 A selection of independent coffee shops, 4 Starbucks, 5 Pret A Manger.
NPD – independent chippies need to fight hard against big chains: The research and insights firm NPD Group has reported that Britain’s fish and chip shops saw a small increase in total spend (sales) of 1.1% to the year ending September 2013. Consumers are now spending an average of £3.20 per person each time they visit their local chippie. Guy Fielding, director of business development for the NPD Group, said: “The independent chippies will need to fight hard to compete with the might of the big chains in terms of promotions and overall marketing activity. Our chippies need to think ‘family’ and attract adults with their kids, offering real value rather than just cheap food at low prices. But despite our love affair with fish and chips, survival isn’t guaranteed. Many of the chain competitors selling burgers and chicken directly over the counter are offering great family deals, something that is not replicated in the chip shop channel. You can feed a family for £12 at a fast food chain – can the same be said for the independent British chippie?”
Restaurants face annual £17,000 bill in food waste: Food waste is costing the UK hospitality and food service sector £2.5 billion per year. Overview on Waste in the UK Hospitality and Food Service Sector, published by Waste Action and Resources Programme (WRAP), reports that restaurants alone are wasting almost a million tonnes of food each year, three quarters of which is avoidable and could have been eaten. It means the equivalent of one in five meals served is ending up in the bin, costing restaurants £17,000 each a year.
TV ad features alcohol scare story: A 40-second TV ad showing a cancerous tumour growing in a glass of beer has started playing on screens across the north-east of England. The campaign by regional anti-alcohol group Balance is designed to shock viewers into realising that alcohol is in the same cancer-causing category as tobacco smoke and asbestos. As the tumour grows in the man’s beer glass, a voiceover says: “The more you drink and the more often you drink, the more you increase your risk of developing cancer.”
McDonald’s drops McRib in the US in favour of Mighty Wings: McDonald’s will not offer the McRib nationally in the US this year. The company said it was up to local franchise groups to decide whether to offer the deal, which comes with pickles, onions and barbecue sauce. For the past three years, when McDonald’s had put the McRib on the national menu as a way to boost sales in the latter half of the year. Tyler Litchenberger, a McDonald’s spokeswoman, said the company had “other national priorities” this year, such as its new Mighty Wings.
Company News:
Geronimo Inns sells £60,000 of lobsters in a month: Geronimo Inns, the 35-strong premium operator owned by Young’s and led by Ed Turner, sold £60,000 of lobster in September at between £18 and £20 each. Excluding Geronimo’s two sites at Stratford, where trading was stratospheric during the Olympics last year, the division saw 7.1% like-for-like growth in the 26 weeks ended 30 September. Young’s chief executive, Stephen Goodyear, said: “The Oyster Shed came into its own during the summer and Half Moon in Putney has been a runaway success.” The Bull’s Head in Barnes, a former tenanted site, will re-open as a Geronimo pub in a fortnight’s time after a £1m investment. Goodyear said: “It’s going to look gorgeous. We’re still looking to add Geronimo site in airports, railways stations and shopping centres. But I think everything is hotting up [in the property market]. Everybody wants pubs in London and it is a very competitive market. We’re looking outside of London as well – we’ve had a look at a West Country group of pubs.”
Young’s acquires Guildford pub from Heartstone Inns: Young’s has acquired the Boatman pub, a riverside outlet in Guildford, Surrey, from Heartstone Inns, led by James Birch. The company has also exchanged contracts on the Guard House in the Berkeley Group Woolwich Arsenal development in South East London. Young’s also added three Enterprise tenanted pubs in London to its estate earlier this year, in Clapham North, Ealing and Bethnal Green. Aside from the Bull’s Head in Barnes, three pubs have been transferred from the tenanted to the managed estate: the King’s Arms, Epsom, Surrey, Marquess Tavern, Islington, North London and Three Lords, Minories, in the City. Chief executive Stephen Goodyear told Propel: “We can afford to buy more pubs and we would like to buy more pubs. We have a facility of £100m in place – the banks are eager to lend to us.”
Stephen Goodyear – consumers moving away from bigger brands: Young’s chief executive, Stephen Goodyear, has reported success stocking brands such as Estrella and Meantime. Sales of traditional summer drinks, such as sparkling wine and cider, rose 27.7% and 24% respectively thanks to the summer’s good weather. “Consumers are looking to explore different things an moving away from bigger brands,” he said. Goodyear said food was now 30% of the sales mix at Young’s pubs and drives “50% of the reasons why people go to the pub”.
Wetherspoon acquires Orchid pub in Hertfordshire: JD Wetherspoon has bought the Salisbury Arms in Hoddesdon, Hertfordshire (population: 20,250) from Orchid Group. It comes three years after the last attempt to open a site in the town. The pub closes next Wednesday, although there is no indication yet when it will re-open.
Glendola wins go-ahead for 900-capacity Edinburgh Waxy: Glendola Leisure, leaded by Alex Salussolia, has won planning consent to convert the historic Charlotte Baptist Chapel in Rose Street, Edinburgh into an Irish-themed Waxy O’Connor’s bar with a capacity of 900. The scheme won support from council officials despite a raft of objections, and the city’s own environmental impact assessment, which highlighted the poor practice of siting “potentially noisy and disturbing premises adjacent to residential properties”. Salussolia insisted the pub group’s bid was the only “commercially viable” option to preserve the Edwardian chapel, and would provide “significant investment and employment opportunities”. He said a range of noise mitigation measures and management procedures would limit the impact on residents.
Diageo to “reframe” Guinness brand: New premium Guinness taps and glassware are being installed in 8,000 pubs in the UK as part of owner Diageo’s “massive overhaul” of the brand in response to slowing sales. John O’Keefe, global head of innovation, beer and Baileys at Diageo, told the company’s annual investor’s conference in Dublin: “Slow sales have been driven by worsening macroeconomic conditions in Western Europe, particularly in Ireland. The last six months of our last financial year, we really felt the austerity programs biting in.” The company is now targeting its three key markets in Ireland, the UK and Africa, to “reframe” the brand. O’Keefe said: “We’re massively overhauling what this brand is about, in terms of our pack through to how we show up in bar through to a new global positioning, and how we’re going to regionally bring that to life in a way that’s culturally relevant and resonant for the next generation.”
M&B’s White Horse in Parson’s Green selling up to 2,000 pints of tank beer a week: Mitchells & Butlers’ White Horse in Parson’s Green is selling between 1,500 and 2,000 pints of unpasteurised Pilsner Urquell tank beer a week from two copper tanks that hold 880 pints each, Miller Brands UK managing director Gary Haigh has told The Times. The company now plans to introduce tank beer at up to half a dozen more London pubs and a few more outside of London. The tanks are refilled once a week by tanker lorries that have driven from the company’s brewery in Pilsen. Haigh reported that Pilsner Urquell had gone from accounting for 6% of beer sales at The White Horse to 45%.
Coffee shop with ambitions to grow opens in Worcester: A coffee shop with ambitions to grow into a chain has opened in Worcester city centre after securing a start-up loan from HSBC. My Coffee and Co, in The Cross, was founded by Debbie Coulter, her partner Jeff Whiteley, and their son Andrew. The trio, who employs seven staff, secured a small business loan from the bank to support the launch. They are to launch other My Coffee and Co shops once the Worcester shop is established. Andrew Coulter said: “The three of us all have a passion for good quality coffee and we believe we can offer something different from the high-street competitors. Worcester is an ideal location for our first store because it is not over-saturated with coffee shops and it attracts strong footfall to its centre. The support from HSBC was an important step in helping us launch the shop. I will be focused on running the shop, along with a management team, and will eventually oversee our shop network as we develop the business. There is a real opportunity to grow a chain of independent shops which focus on delivering quality to customers and we are excited by this challenge.” Lisa Moseley, the HSBC local business manager, who worked with the company, said: “Our high streets need independent stores like this that focus on offering something different to the consumer.”
Hope after cafe-bar operator collapses: Staff made redundant last week after the collapse of Yales Leisure, which ran a cafe/bar, a club and a music venue in Wrexham, North Wales have been taken on again after administrators granted a licence to a potential purchaser to occupy the company’s freehold premises while a sale of the properties is finalised, and all staff were taken on again as business continued. Yales Leisure ran Yales Cafe, South Central and Central Station in Hill Street and Town Hill, Wrexham, with 35 employees, mostly part-time bar staff. Chris Pole, a director at KPMG’s restructuring practice and joint administrator, said: “The business suffered significant losses in the wake of the recession which was exacerbated by the general challenging conditions facing the licensed trade. We are pleased to have been able to secure a deal to ensure trading continues from the premises, and hope to complete a sale of the properties within the next 28 days.”
Boujis set to open second international site in Barcelona, eyes other territories: Matt Hermer, the founder of the Boujis nightclub brand, is to open a second international branch in Barcelona after an opening in Hong Kong. He told the Huffington Post: “I have a hit list of several countries across Europe, Asia and the Middle East, but I’m also always looking at new opportunities that will be right for the brand. Boujis will only be open in a handful of countries across the world, as I want to keep the brand and experience premium and exclusive. Even though we will have several locations, I still need to control the brand.”
Marston’s eyes 50 new-build pubs in Scotland within five years: Marston’s has opened another new-build pub restaurant, this time in Lichfield, Staffordshire, The Saxon Penny. At the same time the company is eyeing as many as 50 new-builds in Scotland. Ed Hancock, director of property developments at Marston’s, told UK Business Property: “We have a target to build between 55 and 60 pubs nationwide over the next two years. We are expanding into geographies where we aren’t represented at the moment. We are a Midlands company, and in Scotland we had no representation until very recently. We have opened three already, and we plan to open between 40 and 50 pubs in Scotland over the next five years. We see a real opportunity to expand geographically.”
Heathcote banned for ignoring trading ban: Chef Paul Heathcote has been ordered to pay more than £10,000 for ignoring a trading ban. Heathcote, from Preston, Lancashire, had been warned by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) that unless he put up a cash security to safeguard payment of VAT, he could no longer supply taxable goods or services at his PH restaurants in Preston and nearby Longridge. However, Preston Magistrates Court was told he continued to trade for more than three months after the ban was imposed. Colin Spinks, HMRC’s assistant director of criminal investigation said: “Mr Heathcote was given numerous opportunities to continue trading legitimately but he chose to flout the law. We will take action to ensure the correct tax is paid and investigate those who are subject to a trading ban because they owe VAT.” The court heard Heathcote came to the attention of HMRC when his previous company, the Longridge Restaurant, de-registered for VAT in 2011 owing almost £100,000 in unpaid taxes. On the same day he registered two new companies, PH Restaurants (Longridge) Ltd and PH Restaurants (Preston) Ltd.
Nicholson’s chain unveils cask ale one-offs: Mitchells & Butlers’ 77-strong Nicholson’s Pubs estate, where cask ale has grown from 11% of ales to 20% in three years, has launched three exclusive Christmas ales created by the brand’s Cask Masters, in collaboration with three of the UK’s leading breweries and established beer writers. Available now until Christmas, the beers were created by more than 70 of the chain’s staff, in an initiative to increase enthusiasm, pride and better knowledge into the production of cask ale. Last month, three teams were challenged to create their own Christmas ales in conjunction with the Adnams, Brains and Harviestoun breweries, led by beer writers and team leaders Ben McFarland, Melissa Cole and Richard Taylor respectively. The finished ales will now accompany the full range of 25 winter ales on rotation until February. Ben Lockwood, assistant brand manager for Nicholson’s Pubs, said: “Our team works extremely hard to ensure we deliver quality ale to our guests and, through this challenge, we wanted to extend their understanding of the full brewing process. Our partner breweries and experienced writers were able to offer invaluable insight, guidance, expertise and engagement, fuelling their knowledge and enthusiasm, which will naturally filter through to the Nicholson’s guest experience.”
Pitcher & Piano moves to all-day offer with £400,000 investment: The Pitcher & Piano in Tunbridge Wells, Kent is set to re-open this month, unveiling a new look after an extensive refurbishment costing £400,000. The 2,900 sq ft, 268-cover site will move away from a late-night venue and will now have an all-day offering, open for breakfast and lunch right through to post-work drinks, dinner and cocktails. The “stylish and modern” new look, designed by Concorde BGW, includes communal high tables with zinc tops, wooden benches, leather Chesterfield sofas and low industrial stools. Colin Sadler, managing director of Pitcher & Piano, said: “Our aim was to create a relaxed and welcoming bar and restaurant, where people could come anytime of day for drinks and good quality, casual food at a fair price. We feel this has been achieved and are delighted with how the venue is looking after the refurbishment.”
Oakman Inns ditches foie gras: Oakman Inns and Restaurants has pledged to take foie gras off the menu. Chief executive Pete Borg-Neal made the promise to PETA. the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals. He said: “I have come to the conclusion that it is too difficult to monitor farming practices with respect to foie gras and, consequently, the risk of cruelty is too high to be acceptable to me. I therefore can confirm that we will not be putting foie gras on our menus nor will we be using it as an ingredient in any other dishes.”
Cosmo to open in Trinity Leeds: The pan-Asia restaurant chain Cosmo is opening an 11,000 sq ft outlet in the Trinity Leeds shopping centre on 28 November. The announcement comes just over two weeks after Cosmo announced it had taken a site at Town Centre Securities’ New Front leisure scheme at the Merrion Centre in Leeds, close to Leeds Arena, which is due to open at Easter 2014. The chain is investing more than £1m in the 200-cover Trinity Leeds restaurant, which will create 50 jobs. Cosmo offers Chinese, Thai, Japanese, Indian, British, Italian and Brazilian cuisine. It opened its first restaurant in 2003 and now has 13 outlets across the UK. James Brion, creative director at Cosmo, said: “We’re really excited to confirm Cosmo will be launching a restaurant in Trinity Leeds later this month, followed by the Arena Quarter restaurant next year.”
ASA upholds complaint over Luminar direct mail: The Advertising Standards Authority has upheld a complain over a piece of direct mail advertising party deals with alcohol at its Kuda site in Leeds that was received by a 12 year-old. The judgement stated: “Although the ASA understood that restrictions were in place to prevent the mailing being sent to under-18s, we nevertheless noted that errors could occur and were concerned that the mailing offered alcohol to the recipient and his friends.” Luminar’s mailing agency reported that these mistakes tended to occur when a minor’s name had been incorrectly added to the edited version of the electoral register.
Punch launches free legal advice line: Punch Taverns has launched a free legal advice line for its licensees. Punch Partners can now phone the advice line 24 hours/seven days a week to speak to qualified advisers on a range of issues including HR and employment law, consumer law, trading standards and taxation. Punch will be trialing the advice line for six months through Compass Partnership. The Compass Partnership is a UK leading legal advice line that offer practical guidance on employment law and consumer law matters, as well as health and safety and taxation. The line provides access to fully qualified lawyers on a 24/7 basis with no limit on the number of calls and no time restriction to each call. Punch also offers commercial advice and guidance on licensing and repairs through its risk department and provides online articles on the Punch Buying Club website. John Healy, commercial director at Punch Taverns, said: “This initiative has been launched as a direct response from the Partner forums, which took place to identify what services we could help support our Partners in. We plan to develop a number of initiatives to provide greater support for our Partners and are continually reviewing opportunities to support this activity; the advice line is one of these. Since the service was launched, we have already received a lot of positive feedback from our Partners, who like the fact that we can offer them access to this type of advice in a simple way with no legal jargon and at no cost to them.”
Punch Taverns and Priestpeople invest £700,000 in Hexham hotel: Punch Taverns and Priestpeople Partnerships have re-opened a Hexham Hotel, The County Hotel, after a £700,000 investment. As a result, the investment created 25 new jobs. Inside, the pub was completely redecorated to reflect the traditional community feel, whilst including some stylish finishes. The hotel’s seven bedrooms have also been upgraded to en-suite and decorated in the contemporary style that runs throughout. To strengthen the hotel’s food and drink offer, the County now boasts a new menu featuring local produce with daily specials. It has extended its drinks selection to include six cask ales as well as a range of coffees and a traditional afternoon tea.
Team with Gordon Ramsay experience to open Derbyshire site: Independent restaurateurs Lizzy and Adam Devey Smith are opening a destination Italian bar and restaurant in the village of Melbourne, Derbyshire today. The restaurant has been two years in the planning and is in a building once the home of the Melbourne Liberal Club and Public Hall. “The venue offers private dining events, celebrations, Christmas menus and parties, being delivered by a top quality team with experience working with Gordon Ramsay, Raymond Blanc, and Carluccio’s,” said Lizzy Devey Smith, managing director of Amalfi White. “The key is delivering consistent quality at around £18-£30 for a main course.”
Analyst – growing consumer demand backdrop for expansion: Numis Securities’ leisure analyst, Douglas Jack, has issued an upbeat investment note on the growth prospects for a number of major quoted sector companies. He said: “Capital is flowing and consumer demand is growing, providing a favourable backdrop for expansion into segments with superior demand/supply dynamics, such as leisure parks, transport hubs and food-led pub restaurants. Our target prices assume less re-rating in 2014, but there is still sufficient growth to drive attractive equity upside, particularly for Domino’s Pizza and Spirit Pub Company. Demand is growing for both pubs and restaurants, encouragingly against a backdrop of pub supply falling at 3% per annum. However, restaurant supply rose 8.6% in the year to June 2013, a level of over-expansion that is likely to lead to casualties when the economy inevitably starts to tighten. Thus, it is unsurprising that pubs have outperformed restaurants in the Peach Tracker over the vast majority of 2013. Quoted managed pub/restaurant like-for-like sales are currently growing at an average of 4.2%, with margins increasing slightly. Against this backdrop, operators are stepping up expansion, critically targeting superior segments (like leisure parks, transport hubs and food-led pub restaurants). Fuller Smith & Turner, Domino’s Pizza and Greene King have the strongest like-for-like sales. Prezzo, The Restaurant Group, Domino’s Pizza and JD Wetherspoon have the strongest expansion. Cost inflation is 2.5%-3.0%, helped by low-inflation items typically accounting for two thirds of the cost base. In 2014E, we estimate that 2.5%-3.0% LFL sales (higher if discounting steps up) will be needed on average, before cost mitigation, to maintain EBIT margins. All quoted tenanted/leased pub estates are stable or in like-for-like profit growth, boosted by investment, tail-end disposals and the adoption of managed pub disciplines. The proposed statutory code is an unnecessary risk, in our view. For 2014E, we forecast average earnings growth of 8.1% (excluding Punch Taverns, our forecasts are 0.3% above consensus on average) after assuming average like-for-like sales slow to 2.7%, from 4.2%. Our forecasts assume minimal improvement in the consumer backdrop, cautiously expecting big-ticket retail to be the main beneficiary if economic policy remains growth-orientated until the May 2015 general election. Of last year’s 37% average share price growth, 30% was due to re-rating. However, we believe the licensed retail sector is slightly undervalued overall at 9.2% equity FCF yield, 9.4x EV/EBITDA (in line with the ten-year historical average) and 14.1x P/E. In comparison, for 2014E, we forecast average earnings growth of 8.1%, average dividend yield of 2.5% and 4.4% average debt reduction. Overall, our target prices assume that the re-rating process is largely complete. On this basis, if forecasts hold, there is sufficient debt reduction/EBITDA growth to drive attractive equity upside, particularly for Domino’s Pizza (Buy; target price of 710p) and Spirit Pub Company (Buy; target price of 100p). We believe Domino’s Pizza is capable of over 20% earnings growth in 2014E, implying a sub 1x PEG for the almost debt/capex-free company. In our target prices, re-ratings are limited to Enterprise Inns (Add; reflecting efforts to sustain like-for-like net income growth; target price; 170p), Marston’s (Buy; undervalued; target price: 185p), Mitchells & Butlers (Buy; undervalued; target price of 500p) and Spirit Pub Company (Buy; undervalued; target price of 100p). We also target a de-rating for Prezzo (Hold), which we view as overvalued.” His recommendations for other companies are: Restaurant Group (Add with a target price of 600p), JD Wetherspoon (Add with a target price of 815p), Greene King (Add with a target price of 925p) and Fuller, Smith and Turner (Add with a price target of 1,050p).
