Brands warned to take care using mobile phone ads to reach Generation Y: A survey of “Generation Y” consumers in the UK, those born between 1981 and 1995, found almost half said they treat their mobile phones as an extension of themselves. However, according to the research company Trajectory, which carried out the survey, brands need to be careful using mobile phone advertising to try to reach 19 to 33-year-olds. Although the mobile phone is the “Swiss Army knife” of marketing, delivering everything from mobile commerce and mobile payments to coupons, in-store mapping and location services, and mobile phone usage is heavily weighted towards young people, brands need to make sure they are not seen to be invading users’ personal space, the company warned in a presentation yesterday. Tom Johnson, trends and research consultant at Trajectory, said: “Although Generation Y are doing everything on their mobiles, and there is a greater opportunity to reach them that way, it’s crucial to make sure that what you are doing is on their terms. Mobile phone advertising is still in its infancy and we’re still learning. The things that come out as very important are control, flexibility, customisation and the ability to respond.” Paul Flatters, chief executive of Trajectory, discussing the perceived poor reaction to mobile advertising even among 19 to 33-year-olds, said: “If anybody is going to engage with mobile advertising, it’s going to be Generation Y, in greater numbers than older generations, which does suggest we haven’t cracked it yet with mobile advertising, rather than any particular resistance from this generation. One of its great strengths, its immediacy, can be one of its greatest weakness if it’s poorly targeted and irritating.”

Lidl claims consumers cannot spot artisan food: The supermarket chain Lidl has claimed that consumers are unable to tell the difference between artisan food and the food it sells. The company built a farmers’ market in the East End of London and filmed people shopping. It reported that many shoppers were surprised at the “good value” of the fresh market produce, only to be informed upon purchase that it came from Lidl. Lidl will feature the footage in a “Lidl surprises” television advertising campaign that will air next month. Ronny Gottschilch, Lidl’s UK managing director, said: “We’ve always believed that there doesn’t need to be a compromise between offering excellent quality and excellent value and, as our sales figures show, the British public increasingly shares that belief.”

Former whisky trade body boss claims business leaders feared signing pro-Union letter: More than a hundred Scottish business leaders wanted to sign a letter backing the Union but stayed silent because they feared “consequences” from the SNP government, it has been claimed. Gavin Hewitt, the former Scotch Whisky Association chairman who helped gather signatures, said around half the executives he approached agreed the business case for independence was not yet made but declined to go public amid worries of a Nationalist backlash. More than half a dozen industry leaders feared planning applications would be stonewalled by SNP-run local authorities if they spoke out, Mr Hewitt alleged in an interview with The Telegraph.

Deadline looms for food and drink entrepreneur awards: Food and drink entrepreneurs have just over two weeks to enter the first Investec Food & Drink Entrepreneur of the Year 2014 awards. The deadline is 12 September. A spokesman said: “We seek top food and drink entrepreneurs from the nation whose food is now the envy of the world. Whether small or large, producer or a retailer, the unique chance is here for you to tell your story, parade your business success before the country’s greatest entrepreneurs themselves – and win £5,000.” Judges include Luke Johnson, Lord (Karan) Bilimoria of Cobra Beer, Pret A Manger and Itsu founder Julian Metcalfe and restaurateur Mitch Tonks.

Economic Policy Institute – US restaurant workers’ wages have stagnated: A report by the Economic Policy Institute in the United States has shown that the restaurant industry is a massive and growing source of employment. It accounts for more than 9% of US private-sector jobs, up from a little more than 7% in 1990, an almost 30% gain. However, the report claims that the industry’s wages have stagnated at an extremely low level. Restaurant workers’ median wage stands at $10 per hour, tips included, and has not increased, in inflation-adjusted terms, since 2000. For non-restaurant US workers, the median hourly wage is $18. That means the median restaurant worker makes 44% less than other workers. Just 14.4% of restaurant workers have employer-sponsored health insurance and 8.4% have pensions, versus 48.7% and 41.8%, respectively, for other workers.

ALMR – undetected fraud a growing burden on business: Responding to the news that almost four million instances of fraud are being omitted from crime statistics, the Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers (ALMR) has warned that failure to address card and insurance fraud is imposing costs on businesses. Analysis by the Office for National Statistics has shown that incidents of bank and credit card fraud are being left off the Crime Survey for England and Wales and that including them would increase the estimated annual number of offences by 50%. The ALMR’s strategic affairs director, Kate Nicholls, said: “Fraud imposes myriad costs on businesses, whether through artificially high insurance premiums as a result of dishonest claims, unnecessary police scrutiny following dishonest theft reports or the ‘double whammy’ of lost stock and revenue following card fraud by what the business thought were legitimate customers.” Though estimating the scale and value of undetected fraud is fraught with difficulty, the Association of British Insurers detected £1.3bn of fraudulent claims in 2013 and estimates that a further £2.1bn goes undetected.

Harrogate planning figures reveal the rise in foodservice openings: Figures from Harrogate Council’s food licensing department show that there are 134 registered food businesses in the town and the number looks to be increasing. The number of planning applications to convert buildings to a cafe, restaurant or drinking establishment has trebled in two years. In the year 2013-14 the planning department received 12 change of use application, up from five in 2012-13 and three in 2011-12.

Brazil coffee output set for longest decline since 1965: A prolonged drought in Brazil means the country is heading for the first three-year output decline since 1965. Production in Brazil, the world’s top grower, may drop as much as 18% to 40.1 million bags when the harvest ends next month, the National Coffee Council estimates, after a 3.1% slide last year.

BrewDog launches 15% student day-time discount in its UK bars: The Scottish brewer and retailer BrewDog has launched a trial 15% day-time discount offer for students across its UK bar estate. The company said: “After countless enquiries and a lot of thirsty students requesting we make it easier for them to get their paws on great craft beer, we will be offering students a trial 15% discount on all food and drinks in all UK BrewDog bars on weekdays, Monday to Friday between 12pm and 5pm. Students are social creatures on a tight budget, anyone who’s been one will know that all too well. Craft beer is not cheap to produce, and its price reflects that. These two truths mean that if you’re a student who loves craft beer, the facts don’t really work in your favour! We’ve now got bars in 13 university cities in the UK, and a total of 17 bars across the UK, so there’ll be thousands of students who can get involved with this offer. Not only will the discount be pretty good news for hard-working hop heads, but we also have free Wi-Fi in our bars. We’ve also got great coffee as well as beers to perk you up and get those cogs whirring after an all-nighter, and there’s plenty of food as well for a little sustenance (all also included in the student discount offer).”

Hummus Brothers reports record sales: Hummus Brothers, the four-strong operator led by Jon Hassell, who joined in March this year, has reported record sales in July, exceeding the previous highest month by 17%. Year-on-year growth was 27% and like-for-like restaurant growth was 15%. The company reported a record number of Hummus Bros pop-ups, with 55 pop-ups in corporate, entertainment and public spaces including Barclays Bank, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, Chelsea Football Club, Wembley and Goldman Sachs. The Hummus Bros recipe book launch has also been launched and is currently at No 3 in the Amazon recipe book chart in its category. The company said: “In September we are running a series of kitchen take-overs and more pop-ups. We will be arriving on Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights serving our innovative menu in trendy, upcoming and well-established venues. Our first is in Shoreditch, and happening from 18 September. Each night will have a theme and we will work with the host venue to recommend the best craft beer, wine, spirits or cocktail to suit our dishes and desserts. We are also ‘popping up’ in HSBC, KPMG and a second unit in JP Morgan, We are already working with Compass, Restaurant Associates, BaxterStorey, ISS and Aramark and have discussions with a number of other catering partners.” The company is in talks for its next two sites. Christian Mouysset, Hummus Brothers’ owner and founder, said: “The book is a fantastic milestone on the Hummus Brothers journey. We’re really excited to be continuing our story where, without spoiling the plot, the next chapters could include more pop-ups, franchising and our first retail product.”

Geof Collyer – we are ‘Hold’ on Spirit shares: Deutsche Bank’s leisure analyst Geof Collyer has issued a ‘Hold’ note on Spirit shares ahead of fourth quarter results due on 12 September. He said: “At the nine-month (40-week) stage, managed retail like-for-likes were up strongly at 5.2% and in the tenanted and leased estate (T&L) LFL net income had grown 3.6%. Both of these were against soft comps, as it was not until Q4’13 that trading really picked up last year. The strong performance was also partially driven by investment in both estates and a positive consumer environment. We expect trading to lose some of its momentum in Q4’14E as market like-for-like sales over June-July remained muted (Source: Coffer Peach Business Tracker). Full year LFL sales growth should however remain upbeat, helped by the extra week. The shares are broadly flat year-to-date, underperforming the DJ Stoxx 600 T&L index by circa 6%. The current rating of 11.6x EV/Ebitda for FY’14E and 11.2x for FY’15E (ex-provisions) is at the lower end of the peer group. We highlighted in our April sector note that Spirit was the most operationally geared group in the sector. We remain mystified as to why this doesn’t come through from such strong like-for-likes growth. We maintain ‘Hold’.”

Thurlby Group changes named to Knead: The award-winning East Midlands pub operator Thurlby Group, headed by farmer and publican Michael Thurlby, has changed its name to Knead. The new name reflects the company’s key food offer, which is artisan oven-baked pizza. Sophia Thurlby said the name that has “more metaphorical meaning and less individual attachment than the Thurlby Group”. She said: “At the moment Knead encompasses the Lord Nelson, the Tobie Norris, Smith’s and the Prince Rupert. We have decided to join these four together as not only will it help us from a management point of view but also it will help us define each site and continue to build a better offering. One of the most exciting things we will be launching is our Knead loyalty cords – which can be used throughout the sites.” Industry sources suggest that Michael Thurlby has bought his sister Sue Olver’s share of the Crown Hotel in Stamford, Lincolnshire, which was on the market through the property agent Christie + Co for £3.8m. The company’s Tobie Norris site in Stamford won the 2008 Camra Conversion to a Pub award.

McDonald’s UK puts spotlight on work-based qualifications: In the wake of last week’s GCSE results, McDonald’s UK has been drawing attention to the benefits of work-based qualifications for young people in the UK. McDonald’s is one of the biggest UK employers of people under the age of 26, providing jobs for an estimated 70,000 young people in the 16-25 bracket. Almost three in four of its part-time staff are studying in some form of education, and McDonald’s staff have completed more than 50,000 qualifications in the past eight years. Jez Langhorn, senior vice-president and chief people officer at McDonald’s UK, said: “More and more employers like McDonald’s are offering work-based learning programmes, so young people no longer need to make a straight choice between employment and education. Work-based qualifications such as apprenticeships are a great way to gain on-the-job experience, earning as you learn while building broader skills that are vital to long-term career success, skills like communication, teamwork and time management.”

Fuller’s negotiates new £180m loan facilities: Fuller, Smith & Turner, the London brewer and premium pub operator, has arranged new £180m bank loan facilities, with immediate effect. The new facilities replace the company’s previous bank borrowing arrangements which were due to expire in May 2015. The new facilities have a five-year term expiring in August 2019, no amortisation requirements and provide £30m of additional funding over and above the previous funding arrangements. The facilities are on improved terms and the savings should offset expected increases next year in Libor.

River Cottage teams up with Skinner’s to devise menu at Truro site: Chefs from Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall’s River Cottage have partnered with Skinner’s Brewery in Cornwell to devise a menu for the Old Ale House pub in Truro. The partnership is part of a £100,000 investment that will see the pub’s upstairs dining area renovated in time for the launch of the new menu on 27 September. The launch will coincide with the Great Cornish Food Festival being held on Lemon Quay in Truro on the same weekend. Last year, River Cottage and Skinner’s Brewery collaborated to produce a new English pale ale, River Cottage EPA. River Cottage decided to return the favour by helping Skinner’s to revamp its menu. Gary Richmond, River Cottage’s chef tutor, said: “The new menus embrace our ‘SLOW’ philosophy: seasonal, local, organic and wild produce. The fish will be from sustainable sources, and the meat is from higher welfare Cornish farms.” For the past year the pub’s staff have been travelling to River Cottage HQ to learn about the cooking process.

Great British Menu star starts work on first pub with microbrewery: The Great British Menu star Colin McGurran, who operates Winteringham Fields near Scunthorpe, has begun a £500,000 project to renovate and re-open a pub swamped and closed by December’s tidal surge. The chef wants to make the Hope and Anchor at South Ferriby, Lincolnshire the “heart of the community” after the village was devastated by the 2013 floods. Although McGurran cannot get insurance for the business because of the floods, he plans to create 18 jobs. He said: “After being flooded last year, which was devastating, people lost houses, cars and furniture. We will use local produce and have a micro-brewery on site. I also want local beers like Tom Woods and beautiful bottles of wine. I can understand that people will think prices will be the same, but that won’t be the case. I want to have starters for £5 or £6, mains for £8 to £10 and puds for £5 to £6.”

Starbucks completes US roll-out of premium La Boulange bakery items: Starbucks in the US has completed the roll-out of La Boulange Bakery premium items across its store network. La Boulange was acquired in June 2012 and the roll-out completion is ahead of schedule. Pascal Rigo, founder of La Boulange, said: “I am amazed at what we have accomplished in such a short amount of time. I have talked with a number of customers who tell me they love that a company as big as Starbucks creates products with such high-quality ingredients. It is fantastic that we have achieved this.” La Boulange makes pastries, breads and sandwiches from scratch using premium ingredients and French baking traditions. An additional trio of bakery items by La Boulange will be available on 2 September: Pumpkin Scone, filled with pumpkin pie spice, brown sugar, cinnamon and topped with icing; Pumpkin Cream Cheese Muffin, topped with a sprinkling of chopped caramelised pepitas (pumpkin seeds) and cream cheese filling; and Washington Apple Pound Cake, a traditional pound cake with fresh roasted apples from Washington state.

Five Guys secures second Scottish site: Five Guys is to open its second restaurant in Scotland at Silverburn, the flagship out-of-town shopping centre in Glasgow. The new 3,637 sq ft restaurant will be in Silverburn’s new leisure extension, the first phase of which opens this year. Chris Daly, catering leasing executive at developer Hammerson, added: “Five Guys’ decision to open in Silverburn is confirmation of the centre’s status as a leading retail and leisure destination in the Glasgow region. Their arrival completes the leisure extension’s offer, and will significantly add to Silverburn’s already strong retail success. Furthermore, it highlights the desire amongst leading brands to open flagships in Silverburn.” Richard Collier, property director at Five Guys, said: “Silverburn was identified immediately as we planned the expansion of the Five Guys brand in Scotland. It is a highly successful destination popular with consumers from throughout the region and the leisure extension creates the perfect opportunity for Five Guys. Our fast casual concept adds something new to the tenant mix and will appeal to existing customers and attract new visitors, driving Silverburn’s appeal as both a day-out and evening destination.”

Former Domino’s Pizza outlet to become contemporary European restaurant: A former Domino’s Pizza outlet in Tamworth, Staffordshire is to become a contemporary English and European restaurant. The Domino’s unit stood at the front of the Peel Hotel in Aldergate, Tamworth, which is run by the Gill family. The Gills decided to acquire the space when the lease came up for renewal, and revive the name of a restaurant the family had previously run in the town, Christopher’s. The restaurant was named for the head of the family, Chris Gill, who has more than 40 years of experience in the food industry, having trained as a chef at the Savoy Hotel at the age of 16. His son, also called Chris, said: “Business has been growing so well that we decided to open the new restaurant. We’re really excited about the forthcoming opening, we’ve had lots of positive feedback and encouragement. It will have a more contemporary feel but will still be based on the fantastic food my father cooks.” The new development will enable the hotel’s current restaurant space to be used for meetings and training purposes. Tens of thousands of pounds have been invested in the new restaurant, along with a £7,700 conservation grant from Tamworth Council.

Snoozebox confirms press speculation on World Cup contract: Snoozebox, the provider of temporary hotel accommodation, has confirmed press speculation that it has secured a World Cup contract. The company said: “Snoozebox notes the media speculation regarding its discussions to provide a portable hotel accommodation solution and fanzone for the 2018 World Cup with the host city of Saransk in Russia. The company can confirm a preliminary agreement has been signed and now a feasibility study and further commercial negotiations will take place. The company will make further announcements on this project as appropriate.”

Marston’s documentary starts tonight: A documentary featuring the staff of brewer and retailer Marston’s starts tonight at 8pm on Channel Five. It is being narrated by Al Murray, the Pub Landlord. The three-part series follows the men and women of Marston’s as they go about their everyday business at the brewery site in Shobnall Road, Burton upon Trent. If it proves to be a success a whole series could be commissioned.

Nando’s to take Blockbuster site in Huntingdon: Nando’s is to on in a former Blockbusters site in Huntingdon. The chain is to move into a building at Towerfields Leisure Park after the owner, Legal and General, was given planning permission to revamp and extend the former Blockbuster unit with additional space for the kitchens and dining area. The scheme also needed permission for a change of use from retail to restaurant/café, which has also been granted by Huntingdonshire Council. The move will create 40 new jobs, split equally between full and part-time roles.

Council accused of bias in Wetherspoon plan for Felixstowe: A local council has been accused of bias in the way it handled proposals for a £2.6m new JD Wetherspoon pub in Felixstowe. It has been alleged that Suffolk Coastal Council gave more weight to a few letters supporting the JD Wetherspoon development than it did to dozens of objections urging the authority to reject the application. Councillors approved the project to replace the old Central Surgery in Felixstowe in line with officers’ recommendations. Gareth and Steffi Lomax, whose home in High Road West is opposite the site, have written to the council’s monitoring officer, Hilary Slater, to lodge a formal objection. Lomax claimed the council’s planning officers had been “at best unhelpful and at worst obstructive” during the planning process, and he felt the decision in favour of development had been “railroaded”. He said the council’s website recorded 59 objections and only one supporting comment from all comments received.

Pub and restaurants plan for Aberdeenshire retail park: Developers have resurrected plans for a major new retail park for the Buchan Gateway area on the outskirts of Peterhead, Aberdeenshire, including a hotel, pub, shops, restaurants and a supermarket. Hermiston Securities, which brought the DIY giant B&Q to the port, previously had permission for a retail park and 45-bedroom hotel at the site, but let the planning consent expire. John Agnew, an agent for Hermiston Securities, said: “The economic climate is such that there is now renewed interest from potential operators and the proposed development would represent a considerable investment in Peterhead.” The revised proposal is substantially larger than a plan approved in 2006.

Costa Coffee signs up to paper cup recycling scheme: Costa Coffee has joined the Simply Cups recycling scheme, the only dedicated service currently in operation in the UK, to help address the burgeoning issue of how to recycle paper cups within its concession outlets at corporate offices, universities and transport hubs. Simply Cups is a partnership formed between Closed Loop Environmental Solutions and Simply Waste Solutions that will provide paper-cup manufacturers, organisations operating in the supply chain and beverage and hospitality outlets with a cost-efficient collection and recycling service that will reduce their operating costs and improve their environmental credentials.

Healthy street food arrives in Spalding: Street food has arrived in Spalding, Lincolnshire with the opening of a new noodle takeaway. The Wok Aroma Noodle Bar in Holland Market said it aimed to give people a more convenient and healthy option when it came to fast food. Owner Tim Chan, originally from Hong Kong, has 20 years’ experience working in the catering industry, including in Lakeside in Essex. He said: “My background is in noodle bars and street food, so I wanted to bring the modern concept of East Asian food to Spalding. I believe it’s convenience food and a healthier alternative to other food stops round here.”

Hook Norton looks to stock key country pubs with defibrillators: Hook Norton is looking at where best to equip its Oxfordshire pubs with life-saving defibrillators. The company is looking at its estate, which includes 20 country pubs, to work out where publicly accessible defibrillators would most benefit communities. It comes as the company unveiled a device outside the Red Lion in Chipping Norton after funding from Chipping Norton Lions Club. Managing director James Clarke, who is a community first responder in Hook Norton and Banbury, told The Witney Gazette: “We have a number of pubs that are the focus of the village, so it’s a good place for people to know where [defibrillators] are. They are very important, because if someone has a cardiac arrest ,they may only have a ten-minute window. We’re looking at every potential pub where it could help, but in some places it won’t be appropriate because there may be one already nearby.”

New Jamie Oliver cookbook released: “Treat yourself” and “Treat the ones you love” will be the messages used to advertise Jamie Oliver’s latest cookbook, Jamie’s Comfort Food, which was released yesterday (28 August). The £30 hardback, published by Michael Joseph, will be supported with outdoor advertising and a range of print and TV interviews, with a push on weekends before Christmas. A TV series featuring recipes from the book, filmed at Oliver’s Essex home, will begin airing on Channel 4 on 1 September, with each of the six episodes showing Jamie cooking for a member of his family or a close friend.

Zizzi freehold in Nottinghamshire sold: The freehold of a Zizzi site in Newark, Nottinghamshire, a Grade II-listed former coffee house which dates back to the 1800s has been sold. The commercial property specialist NG Chartered Surveyors, Acting on behalf of GW Price Ltd, has bought Ossington Coffee House, in Newark. The majority of the building in Castle Gate is currently let to Zizzi on a long-term deal, along with nine residential units and a small gift and ladieswear shop. Jonathon Seddon, of NG Chartered Surveyors, who brokered the deal, said: “Opportunities like this are few and far between and we’re delighted to have completed this deal for GW Price, seeing off strong interest in the process. Newark’s retail and restaurant scene is vibrant and is attracting serious investment, as we’ve recently seen with Topland’s acquisition of the St Mark’s Shopping Centre.”

State-of-the art McDonald’s opens in Kilmarnock: A second McDonald’s restaurant has opened in the Scottish town Kilmarnock, offering a play pit for kids and a side-by-side drive-through. It has twice as many ordering points as the other McDonald’s restaurant in the town, in Armour Street, and it is also one of the first McDonald’s restaurants in the area to offer customers the choice of placing their order using either the traditional till service or with new self-order kiosks. Franchisee Andrew Gibson, who runs the new store, took over the franchise of the Armour Street store in March this year. In total, Gibson employs 165 people across his two Kilmarnock restaurants.

Increasing competition from major restaurant groups in Leeds is driving up rents says expert: A bidding war between restaurant operators is driving up rents on former retail units in the centre of Leeds after a resurgence of the city’s dining scene, according to a retail expert. James Fox, associate director of retail at CBRE, said the “ripple effect” from the Trinity Leeds development has created strong restaurant demand in and around the traditional retail pitches of Leeds, which in turn is increasing competition for retail units that can potentially be turned into restaurants. He estimated that at least 20 to 30 new restaurants and other eateries have arrived in and around Trinity Shopping Centre since it opened almost 18 months ago, and competition for space is forcing up rents by up to 40% on the most popular units. Fox said at least ten operators are still looking for units in and around Trinity but with fewer opportunities becoming available, competition is fierce. Earlier this year, four or five restaurants fought to take over the Austin Reed store on Albion Street. In the end, Sainsbury’s won the bidding war, but Fox said the demand from restaurants had driven up the rent. Meanwhile, Byron Hamburgers recently moved into the former La Senza store, paying an annual rent of £165,000. The increasing buoyancy within the restaurant sector is also being witnessed outside the city centre in shopping centres such as Bradford’s Westfield development, which will include a large food offering, and the White Rose Shopping Centre in Leeds, which is being extended to include more restaurants, while the existing food court has been invested in, he said.

Admiral Taverns launches key legislation workshop: Admiral Taverns has taken a major step in helping its licensees navigate the minefield of rules and regulations that go hand-in-hand with running a licensed pub business. The pub group has further strengthened its tenant training programme with the launch of a dedicated workshop designed to help licensees ensure 100% compliance at all times and to aid licensee awareness of business critical issues. Focusing on ever-changing legislation, the course will give licensees the knowledge necessary to ensure they are fully up to speed with employment, health and safety and licensing laws, in an industry where a license is a prerequisite to trade. Suzanne Smith, head of recruitment and people development at Admiral, said: “This addition to our training programme is an important step as we know that licensees can feel over-whelmed by new laws, changing regulations and red tape. Staying on top of all of this is time-consuming, and can be stressful, distracting from the day-to-day demands of running a licensed business. The ‘Rights and Responsibilities’ workshop is designed to take some of this burden away, giving licensees a clear understanding of all the key legislation involved with running a pub, and to give them the confidence that they are 100% compliant.”

Geof Collyer – JD Wetherspoon set for five years of margin erosion: Deutsche Bank’s leisure analyst Geof Collyer has forecast “good top line growth again, but margin erosion for the fifth straight year” in JD Wetherspoon’s full-year results, which are due on 12 September. He said: “The shares have been the worst performing among the pub and restaurant retail stocks over the past quarter, driven by downgrades at the year-end IMS in July. In our note on 15 Sept 2013 and our sector note on 27 April 2014, we suggested that JDW needed to maintain its rollout programme to generate positive momentum, as cost inflation – either input or self-inflicted – was eating up the benefits of like-for-like sales growth. This remains the situation. At the current share price, JDW is trading on an EV/Ebita premium [FY’15E] to its peers (excluding the Restaurant Group, reporting first half results on 29 August) of between 10% and 20%, yet its three-year compound annual growth rate earnings growth is lower than all of them. With the margin pressures persisting, we see the shares as fairly valued around this level (745p). After 49 weeks, like-for-like sales were up 5.4% and total sales up 9.8%. The ebita margin expectations for FY’14E & FY’15E were downgraded again to 8.1% and (in the region of) 7.7% to 8.1% respectively. Our plan in September 2013 to leave our forecasts unchanged for a year – after 14 changes to forecasts in the previous three years – failed miserably. At this stage last year, we were forecasting Financial Year 2015 profit before tax of £96m. This figure is now higher than our Financial Year 2016 forecast, with Financial Year 2015 profit before tax 11% lower than at the same stage last year; this being the fourth downgrade in 12 months. Growth in Financial Year 15E is being driven by 9% top-line growth (up 3% in like-for-likes, up 4.5% for average number of pubs trading, up 1.5% for estate maturity), offset by a 21 bps decline in ebita margin, but enhanced by a 10% drop in net finance as the new swap kicks in. Earnings per share growth of 13% is also aided by Financial Year 2014’s £21m share buyback programme (funded by borrowings).”