Starbucks reports 8% like-for-likes in First Quarter: Starbucks has reported global like-for-like rose 8% in its First Quarter to 27 December 2015, with the US up 9%. Global traffic was up 4%. Consolidated net revenues rose 12% to a record $5.4bn, with consolidated operating income up 16% to a record $1.1bn. It opened 528 net new stores in the quarter globally, including a record 281 stores in China/Asia Pacific and a record 79 stores in EMEA. The company served over 23 million more customer occasions from its global comparable store base – 18 million in the US – in Q1 over the prior year. A record $1.9 billion was loaded on Starbucks Cards in the US and Canada, with one in six American adults receiving a Starbucks Card over Christmas, up from one in seven in the comparable quarter. Membership in the company’s My Starbucks Rewards loyalty plan increased 23% – the company now has more than 11 million active members in the US. Chief executive Howard Schultz said: “Starbucks record Q1 2016 financial and operating results, highlighted by comparable sales increases of 9% in the US, 8% globally, another 4% increase in global traffic – and record performance from our Channel Development segment – underscore the accelerating strength and relevance of the Starbucks brand around the world. Successful retail, CPG, digital, mobile, loyalty, card and investment strategies are combining to accelerate our revenue growth and drive significant margin expansion and EPS leverage.” Starbucks chief financial officer Scott Maw added: “We’ve entered fiscal 2016 with another record-breaking quarter and a continuation of the accelerating momentum we saw in our business throughout 2015. The investments we are making in our people and our business are driving record, industry leading operating and financial performance and consistently strong comp growth, and are both paying off today and setting us up for continued strong performance into the future.” 

 

McDonald’s US franchisees report improved fourth quarter: All-day breakfast, higher prices and better weather all contributed to higher sales at McDonald’s restaurants in the fourth quarter, according to a survey of franchisees by Nomura analyst Mark Kalinowski. Surveyed franchisees suggest McDonald’s foray into all-day breakfast was a success. In fact, many surveyed franchisees commented the biggest challenge was the limited nature of the menu – only nine breakfast items are offered after 10:30am, and many customers want more options. All-day breakfast “raised the brand profile”, one franchisee said. It “brought in some people who have become bored with McDonald’s”. Kalinowski poll surveyed 26 operators who own 209 units – a tiny fraction of the company’s 3,000 operators and 14,000 locations. Surveyed franchisees said their like-for-like sales rose 4.1% in the fourth quarter – if reflective of the wider company it’s the best quarter since the company reported an 8.9% like-for-like sales increase in the first quarter of 2012.

 

Suntory to sell 65% stake in Subway Japan to parent company: Suntory Holdings is to sell a 65% interest in a unit running the sandwich chain Subway in Japan to the brand’s worldwide owner. The Japanese food and beverage giant in 1991 acquired rights to develop the Subway brand in Japan as a franchise chain, running the stores through subsidiary Subway Japan. That agreement will expire at the end of March. Suntory has agreed to return franchise rights to Subway International, based in the Netherlands, around April and sell 65% of shares in its subsidiary to the company. The stake looks likely to fetch several hundred million yen. Suntory will keep a 35% interest in Subway Japan, and will remain involved in tasks such as supplying shops with beverages. Subway International will select a new president for the company from April onward. But current chief Naoaki Oikawa will stay on as a vice-president. Other employees assigned to the company will remain in place as well. Subway has more than 44,000 stores in 110 countries, making it the world’s biggest branded chain. Japan was home to 448 outlets at the end of 2015, and the franchise chain’s overall sales came to about 20 billion yen ($168m at current exchange rates) in 2014. Subway Japan logged about 2.5 billion yen in sales in 2014.

 

Deloitte – food and beverage to go from strength-to-strength in Dubai, hotel occupancy to drop to lower levels: Rising competition among Dubai’s hotel operators will bring a “new norm” for occupancy rates in the city of between 70-75% in 2016, according to a new report. Deloitte’s annual Real Estate Predictions Report for Dubai said occupancy levels are set to drop from the 77.5% witnessed last year as new hospitality projects continue to enter the market. The report also predicted that operators compete for occupancy, it is expected average daily rates will soften further during 2016, which should encourage growth in visitor volumes required to support the investment in tourism infrastructure. Deloitte also said serviced apartments are likely to be an area of focus in 2016, driven by key source market trends, growing visitor demand for longer average lengths of stay and better value accommodation. The report added planned capacity increase at Dubai’s airports to approximately 97 million in 2016 would present more opportunities to capitalise on hospitality demand from transit and destination visitor growth. Deloitte’s report also predicted there will be a further moderation in retail sales growth in 2016 against a strong dollar and slowing demand from international source markets, such as Russia, China and parts of Europe. It said retail rental growth would be relatively flat in 2016, with the exception of super prime malls, adding some secondary malls will need to incentivise the major retail groups to retain brands. Deloitte forecast the food and beverage retail sector will go from “strength to strength” in 2016, driven by greater brand penetration and expansion, while there will also be good prospects for fashion retail following the completion of the initial phase of D3 Design District in Dubai.

 

Costa names UK staffer as global barista of the year, first UK winner for five years: Klara Rohel, a Costa barista from St Ann’s in Dumfries, has been named the company’s 2015 barista of the year at a global final in Tobacco Dock, London. Rohel, who works at the Annadale Roadchef store on the A74, beat Costa baristas from around the world. The judging panel consisted of Costa’s master of coffee Gennaro Pelliccia, celebrity chef Phil Vickery and restaurateur and author Dipna Anand. As well as the trophy, Rohel won a ten-day trip for two to a country with a Costa connection of her choice. In its tenth year, the international championship judged baristas on their ability to produce a perfect cup of handmade coffee, personality and performance, flair and passion for coffee, knowledge of the industry, and creativity by inventing their own signature drink – Rohel’s was the peanut long macchiato. Head judge Pelliccia said: “Our people are the most important ingredient in our coffee. With over 30,000 Costa Coffee baristas around the world, Klara did a fantastic job against outstanding competition. She has everything we look for in our baristas – pride, passion and personality.”

 

Sky to give away 10,000 football and racing tickets in exclusive pub promotion throughout February: As part of an exclusive promotion for the on-trade, Sky Business has partnered with Sky Bet Football League and At The Races to give away 10,000 tickets, only available to customers of participating Sky Sports pubs throughout February. At participating Sky Sports venues, 5,000 Sky Bet Football League tickets and 5,000 Race Day tickets will be up for grabs, with winners receiving a pair of tickets to their preferred event. David Rey, managing director of Sky Business, said: “This promotion offers licensees the chance to attract more customers into their pub and put more cash in their tills. With 72 teams in the Sky Bet Football League, as well as some of the best racing events in the calendar covered by At The Races, there’s something for everyone, bringing more people through the doors of Sky Sports venues this February.” To win a pair of tickets, pub customers log on to a dedicated website and enter a unique code. They will then be prompted to select their preferred choice of team or race venue, and will be notified by Sky if successful. The first 1,000 Sky Sports-licenced venues to sign up to the promotion will receive a full promotional kit to promote the ticket giveaway.

 

Gordon Ramsay goes mobile with new game: Celebrity chef Gordon Ramsay is set to be involved in a game for mobile phones. App developer Glu Mobile said it was teaming up with Ramsay to create a game using his name. Niccolo de Masi, Glu chairman and chief executive, said: “We believe that the combination of Gordon’s global fan base and Glu’s leadership in the time-management genre, with titles such as Cooking Dash and Diner Dash, make this partnership a recipe for success.” Glu Mobile is behind other celebrity titles such as Kim Kardashian: Hollywood.

 

New survey finds 92% of US restaurant meals exceed daily recommended calorie intake: Meals consumed at fast food restaurants are often seen as one of the biggest contributors to the obesity epidemic. But according to a new study in the Journal of the American Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, 92% of 364 measured restaurant meals from both large-chain and non-chain (local) restaurants exceeded recommended calorie requirements for a single meal. In 123 restaurants in three cities across America, the research team found a single meal serving, without beverages, appetisers, or desserts sometimes exceeded the caloric requirements for an entire day. “These findings make it clear that making healthy choices while eating out is difficult because the combination of tempting options and excessive portions often overwhelm our self-control,” said senior author Susan Roberts, director of the energy metabolism laboratory at the Jean Mayer USDA Human Nutrition Research Center on Ageing (HNRCA) at Tufts University in Boston.

Pub is The Hub launches rural services scheme in Scottish Borders with £30,000 government funding boost: Pub is The Hub launched its rural services initiative in the Borders as the Scottish government announced it would also back the scheme with a £30,000 funding boost. Richard Lochhead, cabinet secretary for rural affairs, food and environment, said at the launch: “Pubs are often at the heart of rural communities and in some places are the only outlet left in the village. This scheme is a great way for businesses, the public sector and communities to work together to provide viable local services.” Pub is The Hub is a not-for-profit organisation that has supported hundreds of licensees to diversify their pubs since its inception in 2001 by HRH The Prince of Wales. Pub owners and operators in the Borders can apply for grants up to £4,000 towards diversification schemes such as siting post offices, libraries and internet cafes in pubs.

Boparan Restaurant Holdings buys Cinnamon Collection: London’s three-strong Cinnamon Collection group of restaurants has been sold to Harry Ramsden’s owner Boparan Holdings. The estate includes The Cinnamon Club, based in the grade II-listed Westminster Library, the informal City-based Cinnamon Kitchen, and Cinnamon Soho. The existing Cinnamon team, including Vivek Singh, chief executive and executive chef for the Collection, and commercial director Tina English, remain in their current roles. Ranjit Singh, who owns Boparan Holdings, said: “We invest in businesses that add value to our restaurant portfolio, and Cinnamon Collection represents an appealing proposition for our customers. We believe the business has significant potential for further growth and look forward to working with Vivek and his team to scale the business, particularly as Indian food is one of the UK’s favourite cuisines and is a roll-able proposition.” Vivek Singh said: “It’s very much business as usual at our three restaurants and we are looking forward to working with Boparan. The acquisition presents Cinnamon with great opportunities for growth and for the team to be involved in an exciting stage of the Collection’s development.” Boparan, which also owns the Fishworks restaurant chain, said it is seeking further opportunities and acquisitions within the hospitality industry. Cinnamon Club operator Indian Restaurants reported turnover of £8,417,221 in the year to 31 March 2015, up from £8,312,85 the year before. Pre-tax profit climbed to £211,171 from £200,994 the year before. The company stated: “The year has been a positive one for Cinnamon Soho, which is now delivering a positive Ebitda and creating a loyal customer base for the future. The Cinnamon Club continues to trade strongly, taking into account a brief closure in early January 2015, for some essential heating and air-conditioning upgrades. The balance sheet remains strong with shareholders’ funds of £4.016,726 (2014: £3,908,745).” 

Le Bistrot Pierre reports like-for-likes up 10% in December: Le Bistrot Pierre has reported a 10% increase in like-for-like sales in December, with lunch takings increasing by 13.6% and dinner seeing a rise of 4.2%. Rob Beacham, co-owner of Bistrot Pierre, said: “We have had an incredibly successful year, with two new restaurants opening in Bath and Newport, and to have finished 2015 on such a high was fantastic. The bistrots exceeded expectations and each location did incredibly well throughout the Christmas period – we’re already taking bookings for Christmas Day 2016.” Bistrot Pierre received a £9.8m investment from private equity investor Livingbridge in December.

 

Polpo targets six opening in 2016, £18m turnover in current financial year: London-based restaurant company Polpo is targeting six openings in 2016, managing director Luke Bishop has told Propel. The company opened its first site outside of London in Brighton at the start of December last year and is opening in Harvey Nichols, Knightsbridge, in a fortnight’s time, and in Harvey Nichols, Leeds, at the end of February, taking the estate size to 12. The company is understood to be in negotiations on a site in Lewisham and would like to open three more sites in 2016. Bishop said: “Brighton has gone really well and we’re now looking or sites in the classic regional high quality towns and cities such as Oxford, Cambridge and Guildford. It will be a sensible expansion plan based on our current combination of cashflow and bank debt.” The company is forecasting £18m turnover for the current financial year ending March 2017. The company saw like-for-likes rise 2% in December.

Michelin-starred chef Adam Stokes to open £1.5m restaurant in Birmingham next week: Michelin-starred chef Adam Stokes will open the new version of his Adam’s restaurant in Birmingham next week. Stokes closed his original Adam’s venue in Bennetts Hill before Christmas and will move into the new £1.5m venue in Waterloo Street on Tuesday (26 January). He said: “Everything is bespoke and this is going to be one of the best kitchens in the country.” The new venue, designed by Hanna Carlton, of Faber, is in a former three-storey office block that has been converted to provide 6,135 square feet of space. The restaurant will comprise a bar, a dining area for 35 customers, and a private dining area with 14 covers. Stokes launched his Bennetts Hill restaurant with wife Natasha in 2013 at a pop-up venue in a former sandwich shop. Within six months it was awarded a Michelin star and was rated number one in the UK and fourth in the world by TripAdvisor last autumn.

 

Healthy food brand Farmstand to open in Covent Garden: Entrepreneur Steven Novick will open healthy food brand Farmstand in Drury Lane next week. The brand takes its name from the roadside fruit and veg stands in Novick’s hometown of Milwaukee. Opening on Tuesday (26 January), everything on the menu will be wheat, gluten, dairy and refined sugar-free, apart from the desserts, which are made using unrefined organic coconut sugar. Dishes include grilled harissa chicken, split fava bean, butternut squash and cumin, and charred broccoli with chilli and garlic. Drinks include Think Press cold-pressed juices, Workshop coffee, Postcard of Mayfair teas, as well as Crate Brewery beer and an organic gluten-free lager from Celia of Surrey. Ready-to-go boxes will also be available, including coconut yoghurt topped with seasonal compote or the Farmstand Breakfast Box, which includes two free-range eggs, roasted tomatoes and spinach. 

Jamie Oliver launches Barbecoa To Go takeaway option: Jamie Oliver’s Barbecoa barbecue steakhouse in Watling Street, opposite St Paul’s Cathedral, is now offering a takeaway option – Barbecoa To Go. Breakfasts are available from 7am and include healthy options such as fruit salad pots, protein balls and almond milk bircher muesli or more calorific fare such as molasses-cured BLT bap or Catherine Wheel sausage and bacon bap. Lunches to go include a lunchbox filled with whatever meat the kitchen has smoked overnight or a buttermilk bun filled with marinated burnt-ends of pork, coleslaw, lettuce, mayo and coriander. Vegetarian and fish options are also available, as are freshly made salads. As well as ready-to-eat options, Barbecoa’s signature dry-aged meat can now be taken away to cook for dinner. For hot drinks, Barbecoa To Go is using local coffee roasters Alchemy and Wee Tea Company from Scotland. Oliver also owns Barbecoa Piccadilly in the West End.

 

Frogpubs opens third burger site: Frogpubs, the Paris-based operator of brewpubs and restaurants led by Paul Chantler, opened its third better burger site, FrogBurger, yesterday (Thursday, 21 January) in the financial district of Paris, Neuilly. It serves burgers, tacos, and the company’s award-winning craft beers. Chantler said: “Even more exciting, next week we hold our first-ever FrogPubs’ brewers’ small batch competition, involving ten teams made up of our 24 brewers competing to see who can come up with a recipe that we’ll put into commercial production later in the year. From black pepper and cardamom-spiced amber ales to juicy bangers to fruity stouts to wheat IPAs, our brewers have collectively pulled out all the stops.”

 

Former Whitbread staffer to reopen historic Hinckley theatre as vintage tea room and wine bar: The Regent in Hinckley, Leicestershire, a 1920s theatre that was turned into a bingo hall, will reopen as a vintage tea room and wine bar. Luke Thomas, director of the Regent Street business, told the Hinckley Times: “We firmly believe we can regenerate one of the town’s landmark buildings as a facility the entire borough can be proud of.” The Regent theatre opened in 1929 with 800 seats in the auditorium and more than 300 in the balcony, with additional standing room for 150. After a spell as a bingo hall, the building closed in 2014 and the Save the Regent campaign group fought off threats to bulldoze it. Thomas, who worked for Whitbread’s Brewers’ Fayre group for several years, will run the wine bar, while Stacy Phillips will run the tea room.

 

Cafe Rouge and Five Guys to open in Thanet’s Westwood Cross: Casual Dining Group will open a £1m Cafe Rouge venue in the Westwood Cross shopping centre in Thanet, Kent, in May. The bistro will accommodate 200 guests and feature an external dining area for more than 30 all-day diners. The bistro will move into a unit formerly filled by Topshop-Topman. The Thanet Gazette reported the unit would be split with American fast-food restaurant Five Guys. Cafe Rouge managing director James Spragg said: “It’s a great shopping park we’ve wanted to come to for a long time. For the last year we have been busy refurbishing restaurants and deciding where to start planning new operations. Thanet represents a significant investment for us, which will create over 40 jobs for local people.” Five Guys said it would make an announcement in “the next few weeks”.

 

£13m scheme to bring Nando’s, TGI Friday’s and Frankie & Benny’s to Inverness gets go-ahead: A £13m scheme at the Inverness Shopping Park in Inverness have been given the go-ahead – paving the way for a trio of restaurant brands to move to the retail park. Inverness Estates has been granted permission by The Highland Council’s south planning committee to convert the former Comet store into three separate units. Nando’s, TGI Friday’s and Frankie & Benny’s, which is owned by The Restaurant Group, have agreed to take on the three properties. Inverness Shopping Park manager Kirsteen Gunn told The Press & Journal: “This heralds a major investment in Inverness. We would particularly like to thank the members of the public and members of the business community who have supported our application and who can now look forward to much better facilities for shoppers.” The scheme also includes improved parking, play facilities for young children and additional customer toilets. 

 

New Peterborough restaurant to target demand for Mediterranean and Middle Eastern food: A new venue targeting the demand in Peterborough for Mediterranean and Middle Eastern-influenced food will open in April. Ishtar, to open on the site of the Goodbarns Yard pub in St John’s Street, will also offer shisha (hookah) pipes as one of its attractions. A spokesman said a dessert lounge seating more than 50 would be the main focus of the venue, serving ice cream, fresh cakes, waffles and pancakes. The restaurant will also serve meat cooked over charcoal grills and have a function room available for hire. A shelter with seating and table heaters will be built for shisha smokers, while a conservatory would be opened up as a shisha lounge for women. A spokesman for the restaurant said: “We want to meet a lot of needs. Primarily it will be a dessert lounge serving grilled food, where people can also smoke shisha in comfort. It will be very family-orientated.”

 

Manchester-based Solita to take over Northern Quarter neighbour as part of expansion: Manchester-based burger and steak company Solita will take over Montpellier’s bar and restaurant, which backs on to its Turner Street venue in the city’s Northern Quarter, on 1 February. The venue will continue to operate under the Montpellier’s name but Franco Sotgiu, the restaurant group’s owner, told Manchester Evening News the menu would become “distinctly Solita”. The drinks list will also be changed to include a new range of cocktails and craft beers. Customers who drink in Montpellier’s while waiting for a table at Solita on Friday and Saturday nights will get 10% off drinks. Sotgiu said: “The site is a bit of a hidden gem in the Northern Quarter and we have some nice ideas to inject a bit of the Solita spirit into it. Whilst Montpellier’s already has a loyal customer base of sports fans, it will also provide us with the perfect relief for our weekend queues.” Solita has two other Northern Quarter venues – in Didsbury and a 40,000 square foot, 200-seater “super-site” in Prestwich – and is set to launch a steakhouse in Barton Arcade, Deansgate, later this year. The Turner Street site will eventually house a third Solita concept – rumoured to be a pizzeria – which is scheduled to open next year.

 

JD Wetherspoon halts work on £2.8m hotel upgrade for Historic England approval: JD Wetherspoon has put the £2.8m upgrade of the Yarborough Hotel in Grimsby on hold because of problems with its Victorian ballroom ceiling. JD Wetherspoon’s construction team found the historic ceiling needs to be replaced and, as the 19th century building is listed, any alterations would first have to be approved by Historic England (formerly English Heritage). JD Wetherspoon is converting the upper floors of the Yarborough pub in Bethlehem Street into a luxury hotel with 36 bedrooms. What will be the company’s third-largest hotel is due to open at the end of February. JD Wetherspoon spokesman Eddie Gershon told the Grimsby Telegraph: “We have sent all the information requested by Historic England and are awaiting their feedback. Their stance on the initial report is that they want the ceiling to be repaired, but we do not believe this is possible. Until we obtain the approval of Historic England, no work can be carried out on the ceiling and we are also unable to complete the redevelopment of the final four bedrooms.” A total of 15 jobs would be created in the hotel, with an additional ten in the pub downstairs. 

 

Celtic Manor adds to portfolio with second acquisition: The Celtic Manor Resort has expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of the Hilton Newport hotel. The new owner will run the hotel under a new name, which has yet to be disclosed, adding it to a portfolio that currently includes the main Resort Hotel, the Manor House, the Newbridge on Usk, and ten luxury Hunter Lodges. It is Celtic Manor’s second acquisition from outside its estate, following the purchase of the Newbridge on Usk inn in 2010. The Hilton Newport has 148 guest rooms and nine meeting rooms as well as amenities including a fitness room, swimming pool, spa bath, bar, lounge and restaurant. All hotel team members will be retained when Celtic Manor takes over the property. Ian Edwards, chief executive of the Celtic Manor Resort, said: “We are extremely pleased to be exchanging contracts to acquire Hilton Newport and look forward to working with the experienced team there as the hotel transitions to our ownership and management. We are always looking to expand and build upon our successful business at the Celtic Manor Resort whilst continuing to help support the local community and economy. Occupancy at the Celtic Manor Resort is currently running at 90% and there are many nights when we could easily exceed our capacity of 400 bedrooms. The additional bedrooms at the newly-acquired hotel will help address our need for more accommodation across all our markets – conference and business, golf and leisure.” The Celtic Manor Resort hosted the 2014 NATO Summit and the 2010 Ryder Cup. In June 2015, planning consent was granted for the new Wales International Convention Centre at the estate.

 

Nando’s opens new restaurant in Mansfield: Nando’s has opened a new restaurant in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire. The company has opened the 3,500 square foot venue at the Mansfield Leisure Park in Park Lane, creating 35 jobs. It has joined Casual Dining Group brand Bella Italia and Chiquito, which is owned by The Restaurant Group, in three newly-created units at the complex having signed a 25-year lease. The restaurant features unique lighting and solid wood furniture, with artwork by African artists. A hexagonal lattice arrangement on the ceiling alone is composed of 18,000 pieces of wood. Regional managing director Andy Cook said: “We have been waiting for this development for three years. We knew this was a great place and the people I have met in Mansfield have been very supportive. We have a huge following on social media and everyone is getting behind us.”

 

Vaughan Lewis – is there anywhere for share buyers to shelter in a recession? Morgan Stanley leisure analyst Vaughan Lewis has named his stock picks that are safer bets in a recession. He said: “The leisure sector has dropped 5% year-to-date, reaching all-time relative highs compared to the MSCI Europe. With market nerves high, we assess downside risks in a recession, screen for sales / earnings per share sensitivities, and show which leisure stocks are relatively safer in a recession. In total we see circa 30% downside risk to sector earnings per share forecasts in a recession. This assumes that 2016 slips into recession, and while our economists’ central case is for global GDP growth of 3.3% this year, they outlined the rising risks of a recession in this note. We assess the like-for-like sales performance during the worst 12-month period in 2008/2009, and apply roughly half of this decline to each company to calculate earnings per share in a recession scenario. These recession case earnings per share suggest 7-83% downside risk to current forecasts, with a weighted average downside of 29%. The most downside risk is in low-margin operationally geared businesses such as leasehold hotels, tour operators, cruise lines, retail betting companies, and Europcar. Valuations are broadly at mid-cycle levels, suggesting further de-rating risk if the macro environment deteriorates. The leisure sector tends to have pro-cyclical valuations, with stocks trading on peak multiples on peak earnings, and vice versa. If macro news deteriorates, we would expect the sector to continue to de-rate. The current weighted average sector price-earnings ratio of 16.2x is broadly in line with its long term average of 15.8x, but we see around 35% downside risk to an adjusted trough price-earnings ratio of 10.6x in a recession. Nowhere to hide. If 2016 slips into recession, we see circa 30% downside risk to earnings per share forecasts for the sector as a whole, similar to that seen in 2009, and with the sector broadly in line with its long term average multiples, the shares should stabilise at this sort of level in the medium term. Within this, we see foodservice and online gambling as likely to be the most resilient, and we think deep value is beginning to emerge in the hotel sector. In the short term, the sector would likely overshoot on the downside, suggesting up to 50% downside risk (if we apply trough multiples to our recession earnings per share forecasts). We see around 20% upside potential if we are not entering a recession. There is circa 20% upside on a weighted basis to 12-month share price highs for the sector, and 14% upside if all stocks hit our price targets, and in a positive scenario, we see scope for this gap to close. Our top picks in the sector are Whitbread, TUI and Playtech. We see 10%, 30% and 7% downside risk, respectively, to earnings per share in our recession scenario, at the lower end of our coverage universe. There is 40%, 17% and 21% upside respectively to their 12-month share price highs. We outlined our expectations for the year in more detail in this note. We would also note that ‘Overweight’ rated IHG and Mitchells & Butlers screen well, with an attractive risk-reward balance.”

 

Full speaker programme for Propel Multi Club Conference on 16 March unveiled: The full speaker programme for the Propel Multi Club Conference on Wednesday, 16 March at Congress Hall, London, has been unveiled. Multi-site pub, restaurant and foodservice operators can book up to two free places by emailing Adam Dickinson on adam.dickinson@propelinfo.com. The conference series is the best-attended in the sector. Speakers are: Nicola Knight, analyst at insights firm Horizons, investigates the key trends in the UK foodservice market, including major menu trends, growth areas and discounting – and looks ahead to the key trends of 2016 and beyond. Adrian Blair, chief operating officer for Just Eat, provides an overview of the company’s role in the takeaway market, current key trends and future potential for operators to develop revenue. Steve Kenee, partner at investment firm Downing, talks about the firm’s long term investment partnership with Antic London, developing an estate of more than 30 London pubs, the businesses USPs, the risks and rewards of operating near the leading edge of urban regeneration and the development of non-licenced premises. David Singleton, vice-president of hospitality for Al Tayer Group, provides an overview of the foodservice landscape in the United Arab Emirates, the brands that are winning, the potential for UK brands and his company’s approach to growing sales. Punch Taverns chief strategy director Neil Griffiths outlines the company’s evolved strategy, involving as much as £300m of investment over five years, developing operator and trading agreements, expanding its fledgling concepts and brands, taking greater control of its retail offer and realising additional value from its property portfolio. Simon King, managing director of Burger & Lobster, talks about the progress of Burger & Lobster in London and elsewhere, the unique thinking and philosophy behind the brand, sourcing quality ingredients, recruiting and training staff, evolving the offer, expanding outside of London and international prospects. Phil Sermon, managing director of Vapiano, talks about progress in the UK as well as the company’s fresh approach to recruitment, training and development of its people and interaction with its guests. David Mooney, co-founder of New Moon Pub Company, arguably the UK’s most versatile food pub operator, talks about the company’s approach at country and city pubs, its Beef and Pudding concept, New York-influenced The Bronx brand, its pizza concept Casa Matta, evolution and future plans. Roberto Morretti, chief operating officer of Bill’s, talks to Elliotts managing director James Hacon about the brand’s USPs, trading all-day, developing a retail dimension and staying true to the brand founder’s vision. Henry Dimbleby and Jonathan Downey, co-founders of London Union, set out their progress in creating neighbourhood food markets based on experiential food discovery, crowdfunding, their plans to create the world’s greatest food market and the development of 12 London neighbourhood markets.

 

ALMR National Restaurant Association Study Tour to Chicago opens for bookings: The Propel and Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers (ALMR) 2016 Chicago Study Tour is now open for bookings. The trip, sponsored by CPL Training and Sky, takes place between Thursday, 19 May and Monday, 23 May 2016. The National Restaurant Association (NRA) draws 58,000-plus industry professionals from all 50 states and 100 countries, seeking the newest innovations and up-to-the-minute information about trends and issues. The ALMR trip provides: insights from industry experts on the rise in fast-casual dining, social media, new and emerging brands, menu development, staff management and a host of other issues – with 70 free education sessions at the NRA show. It also involves two tours of Chicago’s hottest concepts and a market overview briefing sessions from US experts. Paul Charity, managing director of Propel Info, said: “The NRA show combined with our tour of Chicago is a fantastic opportunity to find fresh inspiration and understand the emerging trends shaping the fast-changing US market.” To get more information or to book, email jo.charity@propelinfo.com