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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 12th Oct 2016 - Giraffe Concepts buys 33 Ed’s Easy Diner sites
Giraffe Concepts buys 33 Ed’s Easy Diner sites: Giraffe Concepts, owned by Boparan Restaurants Holdings, has confirmed it has acquired Ed’s Easy Diner. This consists of the brand, the head office team and 33 Ed’s Easy Diner restaurants in a pre-pack administration. The move will leave about 27 sites in administration. Tom Crowley, managing director of Giraffe Concepts, said: “Ed’s Easy Diner has been an integral part of the UK casual dining scene for the past four decades and we are very excited about the business joining the group and the opportunities ahead.” Boparan Restaurants Holdings also owns and operates a collection of other dining brands including Harry Ramsden’s, FishWorks and The Cinnamon Collection. Sources told Sky News the pre-pack administration had been engineered by the company’s main lender, Royal Bank of Scotland, although the company is not thought to have a significant pension deficit. The deal saves 70 jobs – although Sky reported that circa 350 will be lost. The company’s pre-pack sale, which comes less than a year after it launched an earlier sale process, was overseen by corporate financiers at KPMG. Ed’s main shareholders include Andrew Guy, who returned as its chief executive earlier this year following the decision to terminate the earlier auction. Reports at the time suggested that the chain’s owners had been looking for offers of about £100m.

Numis – Marston’s has solid outlook helped by roll-out driven growth in Destination & Premium division: Numis Securities leisure analyst Tim Barrett has said the outlook for Marston’s is solid, helped by the roll-out driven growth in its Destination & Premium division and the absence of a tail in the relatively young estate. Issuing an ‘Add’ note on the shares with a target price of 165p, Barrett said: “In Destination & Premium (48% of group revenues) like-for-like sales grew by 1.8% in the fourth quarter versus 2.5% in the first nine months. That leaves full-year growth of 2.3%, broadly in line with our full-year forecast (2.5%). In terms of mix, wet sales (+2.3%) continued to outperform food (1.7%) possibly helped by the favourable late summer weather in early September. The operating margin is unchanged, in line with previous guidance. As expected, Marston’s opened 22 new sites (5.5% Destination & Premium estate growth) as well as six lodges. The pace of roll-out should continue in FY17 with guidance of 22 pub/bars and five lodges. In Taverns (25% of revenues) like-for-like sales grew by 2.0%, a small deceleration versus 2.5% in quarter three. However, full-year growth of 2.7% was slightly ahead of our 2.0% assumption, with wet-led pubs across the industry benefiting from sporting events and favourable weather this year. Ebit in Marston’s leased pubs grew by 2.0% versus Numis estimates of 2.5% (+3% in first half). Own brewed brands grew volumes by 13%, similar to the 14% for the first nine months and largely driven by the acquisition of Thwaites’ brewing operation. We are positive on the growth potential in the craft segment, which Marston’s is successfully harnessing. For FY17 the outlook is complicated by an uncertain consumer environment, wage costs and inflation. However, we have already reflected this in our assumption of 1% like-for-like sales growth for Destination & Premium and margins -70 basis points; we do not expect consensus estimates to change. Nonetheless, we see downside risk to like-for-like estimates across the sector if Brexit disrupts consumer confidence. To date there is no evidence of this in Marston’s trading. Marston’s trades on a FY17 price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 times. EV/Ebitda of 9.6 times and stable free cash flow yield of 10%. Gearing is above average at 5.8 times Ebitda but the dividend is covered 2.2 times by cash (prior to growth capex and debt amortisation) leaving an attractive yield of 5.5%.”

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