I have been, and remain, critical of the government’s strategy of locking-up healthy people to protect the vulnerable and the NHS. I broadly support the view taken in the Great Barrington Declaration that we should focus control and shielding on the elderly and those with underlying health conditions and open up the economy. Deaths from covid-19 are age-related with the average age of those succumbing being 82. More than half of those who have died from covid-19 have been care home deaths and yet only now are we seeing twice weekly testing for care home residents and staff. And we’re still seeing people with covid-19 transferred from hospitals to care homes. 

 

But the whole population approach of the government reflects the narrow advice base it relies upon. So-called “public health” has always favoured a whole population approach to all sorts of health issues – notably those associated with alcohol misuse. So, in this article, I want to focus on what the “new normal” will look like once the vaccine cavalry charges over the hill and infection and death rates start to plummet, assuming they do. Will we return to the status quo ante that existed before covid-19 reared its ugly head? Will all restrictions be gradually lifted from April 2021 so that licensed retail will once again operate under the Licensing Act 2003 in England and Wales and the Licensing (Scotland) Act 2005 in Scotland? I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

What we have seen is that government has instinctively treated licensed hospitality as something that must be tightly controlled even though the sector agreed covid-secure procedures with government that would enable safe opening. The feeling that we were being scapegoated, despite there being no evidence that licensed premises were a major source of viral transmission, is widely and rightly felt by operators. 

 

But where does this paranoia about licensed premises and alcohol come from? I think it has two sources: firstly, the public health establishment has a long-term goal of turning alcohol production and consumption into a sunset industry. And what I unrepentantly call the “health lobby” has monopolised the ear of government. Secondly, I think there is a deep cultural suspicion of alcohol use and the premises in which it takes place. Alcohol is seen by a paternalistic establishment as a disinhibiting drug that will cause the great unwashed to throw caution to the winds, and social distancing protocols will be ignored and things will get out of control. It’s a bit like that old Presbyterian fear that you shouldn’t allow music in case it leads to dancing and god knows what else.

 

And nowhere has this cultural prejudice been more evident than in Scotland where the Scottish National Party government that introduced minimum unit pricing seems to have taken every opportunity to stymie the profitable reopening of pubs, bars and restaurants. 

 

So, I expect that the “new normal”, from a licensing perspective, will look very different by this time next year. Government will row back from the freedoms and flexibility of the licensing reforms introduced in 2005 and 2009 in England and Wales, and Scotland, respectively. The police will not want to go back to a situation where many licensed premises in town centres are open until 4, 5 or 6am. Public health will urge the regulation of prices and restrictions on availability of alcohol. Local councillors will want their enforcement teams to have more power to close premises that don’t meet new, draconian public health regulations.

 

My top predictions are as follows:

• A “public health” licensing objective will be introduced in England and Wales, bringing us into line with Scotland

• Minimum unit pricing will be introduced in England to bring it into line with Scotland and Wales 

• A system of permitted hours decided nationally by parliament will replace the current system, where the hours for licensable activities are decided on a case-by-case basis by a local licensing authority reacting to representations to individual applications

• Many of the covid-19 hygiene measures will be retained to contain viral transmission – the virus won’t disappear overnight because of vaccination

• Recording the name and contact details of those visiting licensed premises will be retained, and failure to do so accurately will become another stick to beat the sector with

 

Operators and trade bodies need to start planning now to head off some of these restrictions. I have no doubt the covid-19 pandemic will enable lots of interest groups to validate their pre-existing narratives and promote their favourite restrictive legislative measures. The “new age of pandemics” will facilitate a “new puritanism” designed, just like the old puritanism was designed, to save us from ourselves.

 

While the announcement of highly encouraging results from several vaccine trials gives much-needed light at the end of the covid-19 tunnel, there is clearly still a long way to go before life returns to normal. Indeed, as we endure the second lockdown and move towards the enhanced restrictions of the tier system in the run-up to Christmas, there is still much uncertainty over the impact of these restrictions and the potential for further lockdowns in 2021 before the vaccine rollout takes effect. 

 

The hospitality sector remains in dire need of continued support throughout the coming months and the potential impact of the vaccines may, sadly, come too late for many businesses. Cash flow is everything in such challenging times and while in survival mode, operators must scrape the bottom of every barrel. So what innovative approaches are being taken to maximise revenues to survive the current storm?

 

The second lockdown has felt a little different. In March, everyone was caught off guard and it took time to assess the situation, adapt operations, stabilise the ship and access hastily arranged financial support schemes. This time, however, there has been experience to fall back on. Takeaway, delivery and other operations have already been trialled and established, with successes and failures to work on. Hurtling towards what is typically a particularly sociable time of year, albeit with the burden of covid-19 anxiety and tighter forthcoming tier restrictions weighing heavy, this presents opportunities for the most innovative practitioners. 

 

The usual rules apply, of course, such as sticking to clear, simple, profitable menus that work for the eat-at-home market and using promotions, package deals and loyalty rewards to draw new and sustained custom. Crucially, however, innovation is just as important on menus. For example, wine and even creative beer or cider pairings have worked well, creating intrigue and a point of difference, while adding high-margin drinks sales to takeaway orders. Where the products work, heat-and-eat dishes have also been very successful, as well as recipe packs with speciality ingredients and online cooking tutorial sessions that work for group events.

 

In the short term, seasonal drivers will be crucial. People are used to treating themselves this time of year and over-indulgence is the norm – think Christmas cocktails and naughty desserts; three-course dinners for a luxury treat; and recipe kits for virtual social events or gifts. I have also seen a local restaurant, with the premises and location to make it work, introduce a “Christmas market” takeaway menu, offering bratwurst, crepes, mulled wine and the like, boasting impressive socially distanced queues.

 

And what of reopening again as and when the tier system allows? Clearly this is not a time to be shy – operators must make the most of empty real estate, currently sitting underutilised. This includes physically advertising ongoing offerings for takeaway and delivery, informing passers-by of reopening plans and the ability to make bookings. Publicising the best favourable reviews online and ensuring all sites are promoted on their local community social media recommendation platforms has also been an effective strategy. 

 

The website is obviously key on which current offerings and the reopening plan will be front and centre, with booking capability apparent. This is also an opportunity for digital innovation, and if the takeaway sales channel is working, time can be well spent getting delivery ordering or click-and-collect platforms fine-tuned for the future.

 

Amid all the turmoil, maintaining connections with staff throughout is critical. Indeed, innovation should be applied to personnel as well as product. Those operators who have managed this successfully and have stood by their employees will reap the rewards, as and when we return to normal. Engaged, motivated staff who have been well-treated during the challenging times will hit the ground running and return the business to its previously smooth, efficient excellence as capacity returns. To this end, regular two-way communication and consultation between management and staff is vital. 

 

Additionally, using this time for further training and team building while making mental and physical well-being support available throughout will only enhance the feeling of loyalty and community without breaching furlough rules. Open forum Q&A sessions with management, staff competitions and online yoga sessions are just some examples of where teams have been kept together and provided with ongoing support. 

 

This is a terribly challenging time for everyone involved, but things will get better and there are clearly positive developments to this end. The current pause is an opportunity to reset, tackle issues that have been escalating for some time and determine future growth strategies. The lockdowns have, so far, forced operators to innovate and adapt like never before, doing whatever it takes to maximise cash flows and ride out the storm. Looking forward, the lessons learned during this period can provide focus, direction and benefit for the post-covid recovery.

 

I’ve had the absolute pleasure of recording a series of interviews as part of Propel’s virtual People and Training Conference this week, speaking with the people leads from some of my favourite operators.

 

I admit that was slightly apprehensive going into this. A smidgen of imposter syndrome, alongside knowledge of the challenging journey everyone has been on since March, I knew sensitivity was imperative. I was extremely aware that wading in with questions about the “sexier” side of people development may not land well – tone deaf in a world of heart-breaking redundancy decisions and furlough calculations.

 

Very early in the process, however, it became clear to me that these leaders were not at a standstill. Without exception, they had all found the time to look ahead, beyond covid-19 – all were strategic and positive about the future. This attitude wasn’t borne out of knowing something we don’t, or having pockets so deep it didn’t warrant concern. It came from who they are: people leaders. Leaders whose job it is to engage, develop and inspire.

 

These interviews have allowed me to gain real insights into where these operators are at and where the sector should be heading. With this in mind, here’s a summary. I’ve compiled what I believe to be some “stand-out” points, key reflections and commonalities.

 

The sharing of best practice during the past eight months has been unprecedented. Everyone felt proud to be within an industry that was working to better itself by coming together, sharing knowledge and collaborating. Whether through webinars or WhatsApp groups, this collaboration has been essential to see us through. Long may it continue. 

 

Andy O’Callaghan, people director at Dishoom, made a comment off camera as to the secrecy he had seen exist in other sectors, and I certainly feel as though there has been a move within hospitality towards a more transparent way of working. BrewDog’s mantra of “radical transparency” may well be the future. When these companies share with ease, they can do so safe in the knowledge that it creates a better future for the industry as a whole. It’s interesting to me that the most transparent companies are usually unrivalled within their specialism. Seemingly, transparency hasn’t done them any harm at all.

 

Ensuring clear, speedy and engaging communications have been a priority for people teams since March. It’s clear that, for these employers, this is an essential tool and all have worked hard to be able to communicate with their entire workforce at the click of a button. Whether big or small, investing in slick communications is a trick you don’t want to miss.

 

Not only do we see the ability to communicate from head office to the individual but for individuals to communicate with each other – engaging across sites like never before. Loungers people director Caryn Savazzi believes covid-19 has almost acted as a catalyst, bringing communications up to where they need to be more quickly. I totally agree.

 

Zoom has become an indispensable part of working life for so many over lockdown, and the hospitality sector is no different. Andy talks about the tech as enabling them to continue to “deepen, not dilute” their company culture, having the founders communicating directly with their entire workforce on a weekly basis. 

 

Lockdown has forced us to open the lines of communication more than ever before, for the better. Without a doubt, it’s here to stay. 

 

As a sector, we’re horribly behind in technology. Are we fearful of the impact that artificial intelligence and automation may have on headcount, perhaps? Or with backgrounds in HR and operations, do we see barriers due to our own limited knowledge, rather than opportunities?

 

If my conversation with Chantal Wilson, people director at Honest Burgers, has only one takeaway, it is that we must embrace technology. Honest Burgers now has more than 95% of its team engaging with the business every week as a result of their employee platform. You heard that right – 95%. 

 

Technology needs to be at the top of our agenda. Employee experience is becoming increasingly important, so we must deliver on this more than ever before – plenty of technologies can help us with this goal. The future of our sector, and our ability to attract great talent, relies upon it. 

 

Of course, progress must never come at the price of human connections. Kindness and personalisation are paramount when it comes to employee experience. As Andy says, tech gives us the ability to communicate en masse – but this shouldn’t be at the expense of a personal touch. User experience, he says, is really about making our people feel great. This is something that can’t be done solely with technology. 

 

Technology, Chantal rightly states, should be used to enrich our online communications and our face-to-face meetings. Tech should be used in a way that allows us to focus on more meaningful relationships, experiences and training.

 

Impressive at worst, ground breaking at best. BrewDog’s journey (beyond carbon neutral) to carbon negative is a lesson for us all. It’s no mean feat but, as expected, they are happy to share the intricacies of the process. It’s a no-brainer – not only ecologically, but also from an employer branding perspective. I have no doubt that future hospitality operators will take note and start out their own journeys with a carbon-negative goal. I’ll be cheering on the copycats.

 

I love this term. Since I heard Caryn use it, I’ve thought about it a lot. Indeed, the industry has recently had a spotlight shone on it – the contribution and scale of hospitality has been highlighted all over the media. She hopes that, in turn, this equates to talent attraction. As do I.

 

But “meaningful careers” are key. If we are to attract superstar talent, we must continue to create career pathways. BrewDog’s mentoring scheme allows managers within the business to choose a mentor, not necessarily within operations. Schemes like this could allow for greater development of our managers, perhaps even into other specialisms within the business. We all know the success rate of internal appointments – but are you doing enough to identify and develop internal talent?

 

When I ask myself whether hospitality careers are meaningful enough, I can’t help but think of the hundreds of talented general managers who, having reached their glass ceiling, are spat out on the other side. How far does our duty go? An argument can be made for the provision of some form of outplacement service, of fostering connections with other sectors. Would this make joining the industry more meaningful?

 

So, there you have it. Some personal reflections on speaking to this dream team of people leaders. Leaders who have looked past the daily grind and strived forward to believe in our survival as a sector.

A huge thank you to Chantal, Andy, Caryn and Karen Bates – people director at BrewDog. They are huge credits to not only their respective companies, but to the industry as a whole. 

 

One final thought… a consideration on the future of hospitality. Isn’t it interesting how every single one of these highly successful businesses started? Two mates with an idea. Now that’s inspiration. 

 

Now is not the time for bars, restaurants and other venues to sit back and wait for the return of normality. What we all used to do will no longer deliver profitability even after vaccines have done their job. There is, instead, a new normal, and one that requires businesses of all sizes to take a different and innovative approach to their trading going into 2021.

 

I see hospitality venues embrace new ideas with courage and enthusiasm to remain visible and in position to benefit from the post-vaccine upturn. I also know that not everyone sees change in the same way. Change can be daunting, even challenging, but it can be managed (with or without help) and will almost certainly make the difference between long-term profitability and failure. 

 

Not all changes will be appropriate either. Knowing your customer and environment (as well as competitors) are key. Let’s look at some of what is already happening: home delivery, make-at-home meal kits from your favourite restaurants, click and collect, virtual parties and events, and so on. Whatever the innovation or idea, they all have something in common: significantly improved contact with customers, as well as contact with a whole range of local community businesses, offices, charities, public sector and volunteer organisations. Without the latter, any new idea will fall flat. Any hospitality venue that doesn’t get this will lose out.

 

In the same way a covid-19 vaccine will inoculate against the disease, any bar, restaurant or other venue can deliver the reassurance and continuing best experience for its customers only by creating genuine rapport, mutual trust and confidence. I’m always amazed how many venues fail to grasp how essential this basic really is, and how it’s done. Creating the right conditions for customers to feel valued, reducing “no shows” and reassuring them about the safety of the venue must be paramount if any new idea is to succeed. 

 

What’s working right now might just work for you too. Could it be mental health awareness and support, free school meals from the sector, experiences delivered to the home, virtual quizzes, themed brunches, afternoon and alcohol-free teas? Any of these possibilities – and more – are available for you to exploit if you have an understanding of how customers want to be treated. There are many collaborations across the sector right now, for example, with local businesses to support employees working from home by enabling local hospitality venues to provide the right environment to help them break up the day. Things like plug sockets, better Wi-Fi, affordable coffee and lunch packages, etc. are all important innovations, but the way in which venues interact with customers through a responsive and genuinely warm discussion is still more imperative in building long-term business resilience than offering simple innovations such as more flexible terms and no quibble deposits, important though they are.

 

I wish there was a vaccine to deliver more bars, restaurants and other venues an understanding of just how important contact with customers’ needs to be. The many audits I have carried out continue to demonstrate this essential point, without which innovation will not fully succeed. But we will all come back stronger and more resilient than before by being brave and innovative.

 

Bums on Seats has launched its “Christmas isn’t cancelled” campaign in a bid to support the hospitality sector to have a successful festive season despite restrictions. By adapting, innovating and finding alternative revenue streams, the hospitality industry can increase revenue and build business resilience for Christmas and beyond.

As somebody who has worked or been closely associated with pubs for more than 40 years, I’ve seen the effects of recessions, the credit crunch and government policies, the Beer Orders, duty escalator, etc. but none I fear has impacted our sector as much as the current covid-19 pandemic or the treatment by government of the hospitality sector.

 

Since July, millions of pounds have been invested by the hospitality sector in order to provide a safe environment for customers to socialise, yet after a promising start to constructive dialogue with the government, followed by the success of Eat Out To Help Out, the hospitality sector seems to have been singled out by the government with the finger of blame pointed for spreading the virus despite the lack of any available evidence to support this theory.

 

Perhaps the two greatest challenges we faced in the last century were the two world wars, which incidentally didn’t result in a national forced closure of pubs, and it is interesting to contrast how pubs were viewed by governments of the day. 

 

In May 1915, David Lloyd George a teetotaller and temperance supporter blamed the lure of drink for impairing the performance of munitions workers, claiming it was doing more damage than “all the German submarines put together”. The Defence of the Realm Act created a Central Control Board (CCB) which, among other things were given powers to control the production and consumption of alcohol and the initial measures they introduced included reducing the strength of beer to around 3% ABV and tripling beer duty. 

 

Licensing hours were reduced to five-and-a-half hours a day so creating a “dry afternoon period”, bans were introduced on providing credit, treating (buying rounds), spirit “chasers”, and the “long pull” (over measures). 

 

The CCB was also given powers to impose additional restrictions in areas of military importance, which it did in several areas but most significantly in the Carlisle and Gretna district where, due to the high concentration of munitions factories, it placed all breweries and pubs under state control – in effect, nationalising them. Believe it or not, it would take until the early 1970s before this was reversed and 1988 before any significant changes to licensing hours were made. 

 

Contrast this with World War II when Winston Churchill, who liked a drink or two, galvanised the population with the fighting spirit, particularly as the bombing blitz had put many parts of Britain in the frontline and pubs were now becoming the centres of their communities and bringing people together, many sheltered in their cellars during air raids and calmed their nerves with a drink or two afterwards. Pubs were now seen as places that boosted morale, they raised money to buy tanks and aircraft and much more weight was now given to the value and benefit of pubs than had ever been during World War I. 

 

Sadly, pubs also bore the brunt of many air raids particularly in big cities with many either destroyed or severely damaged, but by the time VE day came along, it was the pub that was the centre of celebrations and a symbol of our national identity. 

 

Today, we find our sector having some of the most severe restrictions imposed upon us by a government that seems to have little understanding of the challenges ahead and which will undoubtedly result in many permanent closures, particularly for traditional wet-led pubs. Boris Johnson we are told likes to model himself on Churchill and yet as pubs and the hospitality sector now face their own “darkest hour”, it seems we have leader more akin to Lloyd George than Churchill.