Businesses to get more funding and possible furlough support if further lockdown is imposed: Businesses will be supported with new state funding, including a potential return to furlough, if prime minister Boris Johnson orders further lockdown restrictions to tackle the Omicron variant, The Times reports. It has been told chancellor Rishi Sunak will increase the Treasury’s business support package again if pubs, bars and restaurants are ordered to close. Senior government sources said it was too early to say whether such measures might be necessary but officials were working on a range of options. A Treasury source said: “If we do get to a position where we are telling businesses that they have to shut their doors then it is not unreasonable for them to expect additional government support. That could mean a return to the furlough scheme but depending on what, if any, further restrictions are necessary there might be other ways of providing that support.” The source added this did not mean that further restrictions were now more likely but simply the impact of Omicron was not yet known. The Treasury has come under pressure from businesses hit by cancellations, vaccine passports and the new work-from-home guidance to increase the support it is already providing. The Night Time Industries Association said their sector was facing “12 days of Christmas misery” because the government was allowing businesses to trade while telling consumers to reduce social contact. It said this meant businesses, most of which still had large unpaid pandemic debts, were facing reduced revenues and rising costs. “It is vital the government…recognises the impact of [its] public health messaging and swiftly implements proportionate financial support to ensure businesses and jobs are protected during this extremely challenging period,” chief executive Michael Kill said. The Treasury pointed to a range of measures still available to support firms, including business rates relief for retail, hospitality and leisure businesses in England until March next year. Hospitality and tourism businesses will also benefit from a VAT reduction, paying only 12.5% until March. A Treasury spokesman said: “Our £400bn covid support package will continue to help businesses into spring next year.” Meanwhile, Sunak has been urged to put a £12bn tax raid on hold after the Bank of England warned the new coronavirus variant poses a risk to the British economy. Lord Bilimoria, the chairman of Cobra beer and head of lobby group the Confederation of British Industry, told The Telegraph it is “absolutely the wrong time” to raise taxes given the threat facing the economy.

Propel Premium Advent Video Calendar to feature Phil Eeles: Propel has launched its Premium Advent Video Calendar, giving subscribers access to a great video each day in December from our autumn conference series. Each day in December in the run-up to Christmas, Premium subscribers will be sent a video featuring some of the sector’s leading operators, who will share insights, advice and expertise. The next video – which will be sent at 9am today (Tuesday, 14 December) – features Phil Eeles, co-founder of Honest Burgers, who talks about restructuring the company in an attempt to not become a chain, by changing people’s roles and responsibilities, and “shaking the tree” of the whole business. Earlier this month, Premium subscribers received the fifth edition of The New Openings Database, which is produced in association with StarStock. The database showed the details of 366 newly announced site openings and upcoming launches. Premium subscribers also receive access to two other databases – the Propel Multi-Site Database, which is produced in association with Virgate, and the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, which is produced in association with Mapal Group. Subscribers also receive access to Propel’s library of lockdown videos and Friday Wrap interviews and now also have access to a curated video library of the sector’s finest leaders and entrepreneurs, offering their insights on running outstanding businesses in the sector. Premium subscribers also receive their morning newsletter 11 hours early, at 7pm the evening before our 6am send-out, regular video content and regular exclusive columns from Propel group editor Mark Wingett. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £895 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The regular single subscription rate of £395 plus VAT for operators and £495 plus VAT for suppliers remains the same. To subscribe, email jo.charity@propelinfo.com

 

Pubs and restaurants could be closed or have entry limits to halt Omicron under plans drawn up by Whitehall officials: Whitehall officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with new year parties in grave doubt. A government source told The Sun: “You will be able to see your family at Christmas, but at this rate, you might not be able to do it in a pub. As for New Year’s Eve, that is a different story.” But MPs privately warn they will torpedo any attempts to bring in former restrictions like the “rule of six” or a ban on household mixing. Health secretary Sajid Javid insisted there were “no plans” for any more measures, as the Omicron variant was poised to become the dominant strain of covid in London and it claimed its first victim. More than one in five Tory MPs will vote against Boris Johnson this evening (Tuesday, 14 December) as a brutal rebellion on vaccine passports hit 80. One ex-minister said tonight’s vote is a “show of force”. Number 10 vowed to crack on with the vote despite the prime minister’s majority being wiped out – amid dire warnings of a bigger backlash at any attempt at “Plan C” restrictions. But covid certification for nightclubs, mega-bars and stadiums is expected to sail through the Commons with the backing of Sir Keir Starmer's Labour. Yet Johnson sparked further Tory jitters by refusing to say three times there will not be further measures introduced before Christmas.

UK restaurants and pubs fear 40% cut in Christmas takings under covid ‘Plan B’: Pubs and restaurants predict Christmas cancellations made following the introduction of measures to limit the spread of the Omicron variant of covid-19 in England will cut their festive takings by 40%. While hospitality venues have not yet been forced to reimpose measures such as social distancing or mandatory mask-wearing, industry leaders said tougher restrictions had already caused irreparable damage to trade, especially in city centres. The Guardian reports UKHospitality has forecast takings will be down by as much as 40% for December, usually the most lucrative month for venues by far, after hard data from last week revealed early signs that customers were staying away. Data from the trade body for Monday to Sunday of last week showed a 13% drop in trade and a 15% increase in cancellations, compared with pre-pandemic levels. In central London, which is particularly affected by office workers following government guidance to stay at home, takings were down 40%, while there was a 25% surge in Christmas bookings being cancelled. The figures cover a week that followed the identification of the Omicron variant and included the announcement of tougher covid-19 restrictions, known as “Plan B”. With the evaporation of consumer confidence thought to have accelerated since then, bosses called for more assistance from the government to help them survive the effects of a second successive nightmare Christmas. “The damage has been done,” said Phil Urban, the chief executive of Mitchells & Butlers, which owns 1,700 pubs and restaurants, including the O’Neill’s and Harvester chains. He said customers had begun calling off events last week after the government announced measures including guidance to work from home if possible. “We immediately saw cancellations,” Urban said. “Anybody who was at all nervous, or any company that was planning a do was likely to cancel. We saw the impact on Friday (10 December) and Saturday (11 December) but we’ll really start to see the damage this week, particularly in city centres where historically we’d have lots of corporate events. That’s gone now and there’s nothing anyone can do to put it back.” He called on the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to extend a temporary reduction in the VAT levied on hospitality businesses. The tax break is due to end in April 2022, when the Treasury raises the rate from 12.5% back to its pre-pandemic level of 20%.

Island Poke sets out plans for expansion in Scotland: Island Poké, the London-based, White Rabbit Projects and Hero Brands-backed business, has announced plans to open four new restaurants in Edinburgh over the next two years. The brand, part of the Glasgow-based Hero Brands’ portfolio, plans to open its first site in the Scottish capital in the first quarter of next year. The company said following the success of its restaurants in London and France, Island Poké it is set to forge ahead with further growth plans in 2022 including plans for 30 new locations and a new partnership with dark-kitchen operators, Reef, which will see the brand treble its current UK footprint. The company currently operates 15 sites in London, eight in France and four dark kitchens. Island Poké founder James Gould-Porter said: “It’s very exciting to be bringing Island Poké to Edinburgh. It’s our mission to grow our ohana across our home in London and beyond, bringing people a great and fresh alternative to the traditional lunch and dine-out offering. Expanding into Scotland is a huge moment for us and we can’t wait to begin working with our franchise network within the Hero Brands group and explore further opportunities for growth.” Hero Brands portfolio also includes German Doner Kebab, which is pushing ahead with expansion plans in the UK and global growth regions including North America, Europe and the Middle East, with 700 franchises already signed-up to its growth strategy. It also comprises Choppaluna, the food-to-go and dine-in salad brand. with locations in London’s Bloomsbury and Berlin.

Restaurants and pubs are tasty targets: A “perfect storm” of cheap money, rebounding trade, low prices and distressed sellers means that property investors will be perfectly placed to snap up pubs and restaurants with a “wall of capital” next year. Prices of leisure properties have been pushed down as the repeated lockdowns have crippled bar and restaurant owners. However, unlike offices, pubs and restaurants have traded strongly since they were allowed to fully reopen over the summer. The Times reports CBRE, the property agent, expects that will lead to investors trying to get ahead of the curve and buy leisure assets while prices remain subdued. In its 2022 outlook, CBRE has predicted “record M&A activity” across leisure and pubs. “There is a wall of capital targeting the sector with surplus of demand over supply,” it said. “Additionally, there has been an increase in investors with strong capital reserves seeking to take direct operational risk within the leisure market.” David Batchelor, head of operational real estate at CBRE, said there had been a “strong” recovery in leisure after Britain came out of lockdown and that “large amounts of capital [are] looking for a home”. With debt cheap by historical standards and smaller operators looking to sell, Batchelor predicted a “bumper year” for mergers and acquisitions in the UK leisure and hospitality sectors.

Business leaders' confidence held steady before 'Plan B' sparked fears for vital Christmas trading: In a survey conducted before the news of “Plan B” restrictions, two in three (66%) hospitality leaders were optimistic about the next 12 months for their business, the fourth-quarter Business Confidence Survey from CGA and Fourth found. The figure was a modest drop of four percentage points on the previous survey in September – a sign of the pressures that have faced the sector ever since venues reopened earlier this year. The poll of multi-site business leaders was conducted shortly before the new “Plan B” restrictions were announced, which are likely to hit consumer spending over the crucial festive season and pile additional operational pressures on to already stretched businesses. When the survey was conducted, almost three in five (59%) leaders felt optimistic about prospects for the general market over the next 12 months, up by one percentage point in September. The survey pointed to reasonable trading in the fourth quarter so far, with four in five (80%) businesses making a profit – up by 11 percentage points since the third quarter. However, a third (33%) are making a lower profit than they were before covid-19, while 13% are only breaking even and 8% making a loss. Current consumer nervousness however, and reports of Christmas party cancellations even before the news of “Plan B”, puts even this slow recovery in jeopardy. There was a similarly mixed picture on growth plans. Just over two in five (42%) businesses planned to open new sites in the next 12 months, but just as many (43%) said they would not. Karl Chessell, CGA’s director –hospitality operators and food, EMEA, said: “These figures show that leaders were optimistic about the long-term future of hospitality, but the small movements between the third and fourth quarters suggest that trading had not gotten easier. The 'Plan B' restrictions are denting confidence at the worst possible time and comes on top of a host of challenges around staffing, supply and rising costs. It is a reminder that hospitality is not out of the woods yet. Many businesses remain extremely vulnerable and will need sustained support from the government in the months ahead.”