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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 18th Oct 2023 - Update: Inflation to drop £864m business rates bombshell and Whitbread, Just Eat and Cake Box trading
Inflation to drop £864m business rates bombshell on sector: UKHospitality is calling for the chancellor Jeremy Hunt to freeze business rates and extend the current relief package at the autumn Statement to avoid an “unaffordable” rise in business rates. With the rate of inflation in September revealed as 6.7%, it is now confirmed that the planned inflation-linked rise in April will cost hospitality businesses an additional £234m. With the £630m that the ending of rates relief would simultaneously represent, this combination would leave hospitality facing a huge £864m in business rate costs next April, the trade body warned. In order to avoid this “unaffordable” rise and keep businesses from closing as a result, UKHospitality is urging the chancellor to: freeze the business rates multiplier, avoiding an inflation-linked rise and saving businesses £234m and maintain the business rates relief for hospitality businesses at 75%, saving the sector £630m. UKHospitality is urging businesses to write to their MPs to stress the need for action at the autumn statement, with an easy-to-use tool made available by UKHospitality to ensure parliamentarians are aware of the urgency of the situation. UKHospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls said: “Today’s figures finally confirm the bleak picture facing hospitality businesses next April. Almost a billion pounds in extra costs from business rates alone is unfathomable – and insurmountable – for many. Such dramatic cost increases would undoubtedly be the final nail in the coffin for many businesses. It would be particularly perilous for small, independent businesses, for which ongoing relief measures are a lifeline at a challenging time. Hospitality is at the heart of our communities and it’s essential we do all we can to protect them and the value they bring, from driving economic growth to creating jobs. It’s imperative the chancellor takes clear action at the Autumn Statement to extend the current relief measures for a further year to protect the vital community assets that make up the UK’s vibrant hospitality sector.”

Next Who’s Who of UK Food and Beverage to feature 752 companies, released on Friday: The next Who’s Who of UK Food and Beverage will feature 752 companies when it is released to Premium subscribers on Friday (20 October). This month’s edition includes 25 new companies and 123 updated entries as well as more than 203,000 words of content. The companies, listed in alphabetical order, will have their most recent results reported as well as broader information around Ebitda, plans and trading style available. The database merges Companies House information, interviews and other public information to provide an easy to reference and exhaustive guide to the sector. Premium subscribers also receive access to five other databases: the Multi-Site Database, which is produced in association with Virgate; the New Openings Database; the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database; the Propel Turnover & Profits Blue Book; and the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database. Premium subscribers are also to get access to the videos from this month’s Talent and Training Conference. They will be sent 13 videos on Friday, 27 October at 9am. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The single subscription rate is £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com to upgrade your subscription. Premium subscribers are also being given exclusive access to the recording and slides to Propel Multi-Club Conferences. They also receive their morning newsletter 11 hours early, at 7pm the evening before; regular video content and regular exclusive columns from Propel group editor Mark Wingett.

Whitbread seeing sustained levels of demand, F&B sales return to growth and up 8% in recent weeks: Whitbread has reported it has seen sustained strong levels of demand across both leisure and business and in London and the regions while food and beverage sales in the six weeks to 12 October 2023 were 8% ahead of 2022 as they returned to growth in the first half of the year. It said total accommodation sales at premier Inn UK in the period were up 13% versus last year, with a revpar premium of £6.64 versus the midscale and economy market. The business said forward booked occupancy is broadly in-line with last year but at higher average room rates, with the result that booked revenue for the third and fourth quarters is well-ahead of last year. Premier Inn Germany has seen total accommodation sales were 44% ahead of the same period last year and overall revpar was €65 while in aggregate the cohort of more established hotels had revpar of €71. The company stated: “We remain optimistic about the outlook; leisure and business demand remains strong as evidenced by our forward booked position; favourable supply dynamics are set to continue for some time with the continued decline of independent hotels and constrained UK room supply growth. There are no changes to our previous FY24 guidance other than the following amendment to gross capex and disposals. Having taken advantage of a number of high returning freehold purchases in the UK, Ireland and Germany, we are increasing our FY24 gross capex guidance to £500m-£550m (up from £400m-£450m previously), partially funded by expected disposal proceeds relating to property transactions of between £50m and £100m.” Turnover increased 17% to £1,574m in the first half of the financial year compared with £1,350.4m the previous year. Profit before tax was up to £395m compared with £307.4m. The company stated: “Total UK accommodation sales were 15% ahead of the first half of FY23 and 55% above the first half of FY20, with strong revpar growth in both London and the regions. UK hotel demand is strong and with supply not now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels for at least five years. We are therefore seeking opportunities to grow our pipeline towards our long-term potential of 125,000 rooms across the UK and Ireland, while continuing to maintain our financial discipline. Food and beverage sales increased by 10% versus the first half of FY23, driven by a return to year-on-year growth in covers and spend per head. Premier Inn Germany saw total accommodation sales were up 82% versus the first half of FY23 reflecting further room openings and the progressive maturity of the existing estate. In Germany, we continue to make good progress and reconfirm our previous guidance for FY24. A £300m share buyback completed on 3 October 2023, in accordance with our capital allocation framework a further £300m buyback to be completed by the time of the FY24 preliminary results.” Chief executive Dominic Paul said: “This is an impressive first half performance. In the UK, we maintained high levels of occupancy whilst continuing to attract excellent guest scores and offering great value for our customers. The strengths of our operating model and our continued focus on driving cost efficiencies across the business resulted in UK margins exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In Germany, we are making good progress and are continuing to refine our strategy based on our learnings to-date and whilst there is much work to do as we continue to grow, we remain on course to achieve our long-term ambition of 10%-14% return on capital. We are generating significant operating cash flow that we are redeploying into future profit growth as well as returning value to shareholders through increased dividends and share buy-backs. Given the structural shift in hotel supply and by continuing to invest in our assets, our brand and our teams, we remain confident that we can both extend our market leading position in the UK and replicate that success in Germany. The group is in excellent shape, trading well and has significant growth potential, both in the UK and Germany. Based on our strong performance to-date and an encouraging forward booked position, we remain optimistic about the full year outlook and look forward with confidence as reflected by our increased interim dividend and further planned share buyback.”

Just Eat reports UK orders drop 3% in third quarter but upgrades full-year adjusted Ebitda guidance: Just Eat Takeaway has reported orders in the UK and Ireland dropped 3% to 60.8 million in the third quarter but returned to gross transaction value growth (GTV) – up 4% to €1,667m. Year to date orders in UK and Ireland were down 7% and GTV is down 1% to €4,858m compared with 2022.Total orders for the business fell 7% in the quarter to 235.3 million, while total GTV was down 7% to €6,924m with North America down 18% and southern Europe and Australia/New Zealand falling 17%. The business said: “Constant currency GTV growth is expected to be approximately down 4% year-on-year in 2023 (previously reported GTV growth to be in a range of minus 4% to plus 2% year-on-year in 2023). Management has upgraded the adjusted Ebitda guidance and now expects to deliver a positive adjusted Ebitda of approximately €310m in 2023 (previously approximately €275m in 2023). Free cash flow (before changes in working capital) expected to be approximately break-even in the second half of 2023 and positive thereafter (previously free cash flow (before changes in working capital) to turn positive in mid-2024). The long-term objectives for Just Eat Takeaway remain unchanged. Management, together with its advisers, continues to actively explore the partial or full sale of Grubhub. There can be no certainty that any such strategic actions will be agreed or what the timing of such agreements will be. Further announcements will be made as and when appropriate.” Jitse Groen, chief executive of Just Eat Takeaway, said: “The majority of our business has returned to GTV growth in the third quarter with particular strong momentum in northern Europe and the UK and Ireland segments. Within the UK and Ireland we continue to invest significantly while at the same time increasing profitability. Although the recovery of North America is on a slower trajectory, we are satisfied that this segment too is rapidly becoming cash flow neutral. As a result, we are in a position to upgrade both our adjusted Ebitda and cash flow guidance and now expect to be approximately cash flow break-even in the second half of 2023 and positive thereafter.”

Cake Box reports continued improvement in sales and cost pressures easing: Cake Box, the specialist retailer of fresh cream cakes, has said it has seen a continued improvement in sales year on year and cost pressures are starting to ease. The company stated: “Trading in the first half of the financial year (six months ended 30 September 2023) has been in line with the board's expectations. The group expects to report revenues up circa 6% year-on-year, with adjusted profits ahead of the first half of 2023. This performance reflects continued strong like-for-like franchise store sales growth and further new store openings. Franchisee store like-for-like sales increased 6.2% for the half year, a significant improvement on the negative 1.6% reported for the same period in the prior financial year. The cost of raw materials has remained stable since the second half of the prior financial year (ended 31 March 2023). Franchisees have seen some relief from inflationary pressures with an easing in utility and fuel prices during the period. We remain mindful of the continued pressures on our customers in the current environment and have not increased pricing during the period, which has helped with customer retention whilst ensuring our proposition is attractive to new customers. Franchisees demand for stores remains strong, with a further nine stores opening in the half (first half of FY23: 11 FY23 20), despite the significant increase in interest rates implemented by the Bank of England since the start of the 2022 calendar year. As at 30 September 2023 the franchise store estate stood at 214 stores (first half of FY23: 196, FY23: 205). The group's cash position remains strong, with cash and cash equivalents of £7.1m after paying the final dividend of £2.2m for the 2023 financial year (as at 30 September 2022: £5.5m, as at 31 March 2023 £7.4m). Capex spend was considerably down on the prior year, due to the substantial investment in the group's facilities in the preceding years.” Chief executive Sukh Chamdal said: “We are pleased with our first half performance, delivering a recovery in sales and margins as raw material and input prices have stabilised. Our brand continues to grow and we have made further strides with our marketing initiatives, with the successful launch of our new website in June 2023 already boosting our online sales channel. We enter the second half of the year with good momentum and remain confident in our growth prospects following the investment in our operations and our enlarged and enhanced operational team. Together with the continued dedication and enthusiasm from our franchisees, we look forward to continuing to grow our customer base and brand.”

Toon to step down as Comptoir Group FD: Comptoir Group, the Comptoir Libanais and Shawa operator, has announced Michael Toon is to step down as financial director. Toon will remain with the business until 12 January 2024 “to ensure an orderly handover”. The group said it has started its search for Toon’s replacement and a further announcement will be made once a successor has been identified. Toon, formerly of Casual Dining Group and Chopstix, joined Comptoir Group as its finance director in October 2020. Chief executive Nick Ayerst said: “On behalf of the company and board, we extend our thanks to Michael for his contribution and commitment to the group and wish him the very best with his future endeavours.”

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