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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 31st Jan 2024 - Update: Starbucks slowdown, packed lunches rise, business confidence up
Demand for Starbucks no longer black and white: The world’s biggest coffee chain missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly sales in a sign that demand for its pricey coffees in the US might be struggling, while its international markets also faced a slowdown. The Times reports that shares in Starbucks, which opened its first outlet in 1971 in Seattle and has more than 32,000 stores in 80 countries, rose 4.2%, or $3.95, to $98.03 in extended trading as its China business showed signs of recovery. Starbucks has seen a steady deceleration in the pace of sales growth over the past few quarters, driven by volatility in demand in both the US and China markets because of uneven consumer spending and growing competition. While it saw a strong start to the quarter, with a 5.9% rise in traffic at its US stores in October, the momentum quickly faded, with November and December posting declines of 5.1% and 4.5% respectively. Starbucks is among a handful of global brands that have come under pressure because of the Israel-Hamas war that started in October, with consumers across several markets launching protests and boycott campaigns against it over its stance on the conflict. In North America, comparable sales increased 5% in the first quarter, slightly lower than analysts’ expectations of a 5.12% rise. Comparable sales in China rose 10% in the quarter, improving from a 5% increase in the preceding three months. In its international division Starbucks posted a 7% increase in same-store sales, missing analysts’ estimate of 12.1% growth. Global comparable sales increased by 5% in the first quarter, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 6.98% rise.

Variety of launches by experiential brands to feature in next New Openings Database: Premium members will receive the next New Openings Database on Friday (2 February), at midday. The next database includes a series of openings in the experiential leisure sector including Flight Club, the darts brand owned by Red Engine, which is set to open a site in Oxford. Boutique bowling company Lane7 opened its debut London venue last month, featuring a food offer from Patty&Bun, while indoor family activity brand Oxygenwill unveil a new concept and branding at its next opening, in York. The database will show the details of 95 site openings, including which company has opened a site or its plans to open one in the future. It will have details on what type of site it is and its location, and there will also be a website link to the businesses. The database is published on a monthly basis and Premium Club members will also receive a 4,800-word report on the new additions to the database. Premium members also receive access to five other databases: the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the New Openings Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who’s Who of UK Food & Beverage. Propel is evolving its Premium subscription offer by launching Premium Club tomorrow (Thursday, 1 February). All circa 4,000 existing subscribers automatically become members. The launch of Premium Club comes with even more benefits. All subscribers will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to four Propel paid-for events – The Excellence in Pub Retailing Conference (14 May), Social Media for Profit (18 July), the Talent and Training Conference (1 October) and Restaurant Marketer and Innovator (two days in January 2025). Operators will also be able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club members receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club members will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club members also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Propel Premium subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Workers turn to packed lunches as inflation bites: Workers brought 86 million packed lunches into the office last year, as Britons shunned high street treats amid the cost of living crisis. The Times reports figures from Kantar, the market research firm, show 57 million more lunchboxes were brought to work on weekdays last year compared with 2022, according to analysis of 16 to 64-year-olds, excluding retirees. “There’s evidence to suggest that people are opting for more homemade meals to keep budgets in line,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said. “Eighty-six million more lunchboxes were brought to work last year, for example.” However, 434 million fewer meals were brought to work when comparing 2023 with 2019, which likely ­reflects hybrid working patterns. The research-backed findings from a survey taken last year found almost one in three workers (32%) planned to make more homemade lunches in 2023, placing it in the top five new year’s resolutions; which also ­included eating better (48%), getting fitter (46%) and saving money (44%). According to the survey of 1,000 UK ­employees by Instantprint, the online printing specialists, the average person was spending £21 a week on their work lunches, equating to £1,092 a year. One in four (24%) office workers was found to have bought a meal deal or lunch from a shop or café at least once a week, with 18% of Britons doing this multiple times per week. Over the past few decades there has been a significant rise in the number of consumers choosing to eat out at lunchtime due to a growing range of ready-made sandwich and coffee shops. The cost of living crisis, however, has forced many to bring meals from home as they suffer an unprecedented squeeze on their household finances and rising grocery prices.

Business confidence at its highest for January in eight years: Businesses have begun 2024 in upbeat style, with confidence levels at their highest level for January in eight years as interest rate cuts and lower inflation come into view. The Times reports that the Lloyds Bank’s monthly business confidence index has risen to 44% this month, up nine points from 35% in December and the strongest start to a new year since 2016. It is also the best reading since February 2022, the month in which Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine and sent inflation in Europe to multi-decade highs. Widespread anticipation of several interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year has bolstered business confidence. The central bank is expected to cut its base rate from its present 5.25%, a 15-year high, four or five times in 2024. Inflation is expected to continue its descent in the first half of this year, with several economic consultancies projecting that the rate will be back to the Bank of England’s 2% target by April from its present level of 4%. Looser financial conditions alongside receding price pressures should strengthen personal finances, delivering a boost to consumer spending, which, in real terms, has been constrained for a year. Wages are also forecast to continue to rise faster than prices for most of 2024, helping to offset the hit to household living standards from the cost of living crisis. Lloyds’ research has found that a net balance of 33% of companies plan to expand their workforces over the coming 12 months, up from 29% in December, in anticipation of stronger economic growth. Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “The reduction in inflation, albeit with the recent rise, and the belief that interest rates may have peaked is likely driving the rise in confidence among firms.” However, he added that the rise in business confidence could be arrested if global political tensions continued to intensify. The US and Britain have struck Iran-backed Houthi positions in Yemen in response to attacks on trading vessels travelling through the Red Sea, raising concerns about an escalating conflict across the Middle East. Separate figures from the Federation of Small Businesses showed that smaller companies plan to reduce their employee numbers rather than expand them for the first time since 2020, when Britain was in the midst of pandemic lockdowns.

New Brexit food checks likely to mean less choice, warn delis: Thousands of delicatessens and other specialist food shops have said new border rules that come in from today (31 January) are likely to mean reduced choice of products for consumers. The Guardian reports the Guild of Fine Food (GFF), which represents 12,000 businesses, has raised fears that European suppliers of specialist foods such as cheeses and meats will stop supplying the UK as a result of the additional red tape for imported goods. John Farrand, managing director at the GFF, said: “I’m just worried that we are going to end up buying and selling only mass-produced products. Are we going to see the end of smaller, more interesting products, which are ultimately better for the planet?” Farrand said while large supermarkets and large exporting businesses would have the financial base and resources to continue ensuring supply, smaller retailers and wholesalers would not. Andrea Rasca, chief executive and founder of Mercato Metropolitano, which runs a number of sites in London hosting dozens of independent food outlets, agreed that the new rules would deter EU suppliers, and urged the government to rethink. Rasca said: “For independent retailers, these new import rules could result in many specialty retailers or delis having empty shelves and at worst having to close down due to the limited supply of produce coming into the UK.”

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