Thu 1st Feb 2024 - More than 800 licensed premises lost in Q4 2023, data shows longer-term trend to food-led occasions in pubs More than 800 licensed premises lost in fourth quarter of 2023, data shows longer-term trend to food-led occasions in pubs: Britain’s number of licensed premises dropped by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the latest Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA by NIQ and AlixPartners reveals. The figure is equivalent to 803 net closures in three months, or nearly nine per day. It represents an acceleration of closures from the third quarter of last year, when numbers fell by only 0.3%, but is much healthier than the average of 24 closures a day that the monitor recorded in mid-2022, when post-covid business failures were at a peak. The data shows Britain had 99,113 licensed premises at December 2023, nearly 3,000 fewer than 12 months earlier, and 16,000 fewer than at March 2020, the point at which covid-19 arrived in Britain. The independent sector has been hit particularly hard, with numbers falling by a sixth (16.6%) since early 2020. In the pub sector, the number of premises has plunged 43.6% over the last 20 years. The data indicates that food-led pubs have been relatively resilient, with a 7.6% drop since March 2020, while community and high street pubs have dipped by 11.8% and 11.2% respectively. This reflects the long-term shift in the way people use pubs, and a change in focus from drinking out to eating out. Managed pub groups have achieved growth of 4.2% in that time, while independents (down14.1%) and leased operators (down 14.4%) have found it harder to recover from covid lockdowns. Karl Chessell, CGA by NIQ’s business unit director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA, said: “More closures can be expected in the coming months as inflation and labour issues continue to put strain on businesses, and independent operators are particularly vulnerable. However, CGA’s data points to solid trading for managed pubs, bars and restaurants, and likely drops in inflation and interest rates will hopefully ease costs and loosen people’s spending as 2024 goes on. Whether or not this leads to a slowing of closures and a trigger for new openings remains to be seen.” Graeme Smith, AlixPartners’ managing director, added: “While the long-term headline-grabbing pub closure rates are, on the face of it, shocking, they speak to a societal shift, from drinking-out to more food-led occasions. This has happened amid a 20-year structural expansion in food venues across the country. It is a hospitality mega-trend of the first quarter of this century. The other material shift in behaviour in recent times is that of young consumers moving away from large late-night venues, which has left this segment of the market facing a challenge to adapt.”