In the past week, we have seen the tills go out of action at Tesco, Sainsbury’s, McDonald’s and Greggs. With their electric point of sale (EPOS) out of action, they chose to shut up shop and close branches. In some cases, they accepted cash, although many chose to close. Social media channels have some pretty bad examples of signage that had gone up. A Greggs sign read: “Due to a system outage, we are card only temporarily, and our staff can’t do math.”

 

While this is bad news for almost everyone, business and consumer, it is a good time to really test your brand values and what you stand for. What do your brand values mean in reality? Did Tesco and Sainsbury’s just shut down and close? What if their customers needed baby milk, baby food or medicine urgently? In their moment of need, those customers would have found the doors shut on them. There were reports of shoppers abandoning full trolleys because they could not pay. 

 

Did McDonald’s and Greggs really turn away their regulars? The road warrior desperate for that coffee? The nurse heading home after an overnight shift? The builder starting a long day? All the types of people they would feature in their adverts, as the customers they say they love to look after.

 

Can Tesco really say that every little helps when it closes the doors at the first sign of trouble? That McDonald’s are lovin’ it if it doesn’t love it enough to stay open? Greggs can’t be always fresh, always tasty, if it is not always open. It was the till that wasn’t working, not the grill or the coffee machine. So, what could they have done? I’d take a good look at your brand values and then ask how that is best expressed when the tills are down. 

 

My suggestion is staff at supermarkets should ask customers how much they think their shop comes to, then halve that number and accept that either in cash or a promise to pay tomorrow. In quick service restaurants, staff should simply take whatever the customer can offer. Customers halfway through eating or ordering may need to be treated differently from those arriving later, but let’s look after our customers.

 

These are hugely loved brands that customers have been loyal to for years. This is a moment that tests what a brand really means when things are tricky. Customers will remember what you did and how you responded. I have conducted many focus groups and interviews in the hospitality industry where customers have told us they feel truly looked after when they forgot their wallet or could not pay, and the staff cut them some slack.

Most people are basically honest and will thank you for looking after them and come back another day.  When KFC ran out of chicken in 2018, it came out of it as heroes with a set of cheeky newspaper ads and Tweets mocking itself. Customers responded well to its self-deprecating approach. 

 

I’d suggest you get a plan for when it happens in your pub or restaurant. How will you handle it in a way that reflects your brand? What is your contingency plan written not just by the IT and operations team, but also by the marketing team? If those brand values mean anything, then it’s when you are tested that they should shine through. One industry leader told me anonymously: “They should get a notepad and a calculator and take their order.”

 

Putting this out to debate on LinkedIn, a friend and former colleague told me: “Back when the bingo bar till went down, we charged £1 cash per pint (admittedly mid-2000s prices). This was because…maths. Though we could, in theory, work out the exact price and change, it’s quicker (for both us and the customer) to just call it a quid. The much quicker service meant we sold more, and not only that, but the customers were happy with more time to play their games!”

 

Of course, whatever solution is put in place must be operationally simple and easy for staff to manage during what will be a difficult time anyway. But the best time to build relationships with our customers is when we ask them to help us out. As good as Tesco, Sainsbury’s, McDonald’s and Greggs are at marketing – I think they missed a moment this time.

 

Such was the popularity of Les 2 Garçons in my neighbourhood of Crouch End in north London that it moved down the road to larger premises, but I’m pleased to say it retained its classic bistro décor, accessible French cuisine and affordable pricing. We’re talking about perennials on the menu such as a starter of soupe à l’oignon gratinée, followed by le boeuf with frites and sauce au poivre, and finishing off with a Baba au Rhum with crème Chantilly.

 

The venue sits very comfortably within the definition of a bistro as a small, relatively simple restaurant, especially one offering French or French-style food. And it seems we can’t get enough of this style of dining right now. They are akin to the British country pub, whereby there is a certain mythology around these places where a specific ideal comes to mind. There’s an archetype, and it really exists, and I’d question whether it has been improved upon by any other dining format. 

 

We’ve been inundated with experimental cuisines over recent years that might have been more about chefs playing about and satisfying their own whims rather than the appetites of their customers. Small plate concepts and multi-course sensory experiences seem to have been more to the fore, along with Instagram-fuelled restaurants reliant on one dish and a ludicrously fickle customer base. We’d almost lost sight of the traditional two or three-course meal of perfectly executed tried-and-trusted dishes using recognisable ingredients. The reality is, we love bistro cuisine with its meaty backdrop, ubiquitous fries and vegetable-lite approach that translates to garnish in French.

 

When money was cheap, experimentation was all well and good, but in these current challenging times, with the unpredictability of governments and interest rates fuelling the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, this is putting extreme pressure on both people’s budgets and hospitality operators. 

 

This has curtailed not only the extravagance within certain parts of the hospitality industry, but also the risky nights out of diners who were willing to chance their arms on uncertain cuisines. Instead, people have increasingly retreated into the embrace of sure-fire winners like the good old French-style bistro. You pretty much know what you are going to get, and this sits very comfortably within today’s landscape. 

 

Much-respected chef Henry Harris recognised the zeitgeist when he opened Bouchon Racine to rave reviews and long queues. He also won Opening of the Year 2023 at the National Restaurant Awards. He brought back the comfort foods he’d honed at the original Racine, which was a pioneer of the bistro concept in the UK when it opened in 2002 and was arguably more Parisian than many of originals over the channel that it copied.

 

He has been followed by an army of new bistros, including Bistro Freddie, whose owner, Dominic Hamdy, puts his finger on the changes we’re seeing in the restaurant industry when describing his creation. “Sometimes you find places where there’s a slight disconnect,” he said. “When they’ve tried to execute a concept, used the normal design firm, hired the big name chef and ended up with a luxury box-fresh restaurant that has no soul to it. I think you can feel that. We’re not reinventing the wheel…we’re just delivering stuff that you really want to eat.” 

 

Big name chef Claude Bosi has done years in box-fresh luxury restaurants, including the recent opening of Brooklands at The Peninsula, but it is his new neighbourhood bistro Josephine that is the closest to his heart. It serves the French classics he grew up with in Lyon, including the venerable onion soup, beef fillet with peppercorn sauce and rum baba with Chantilly cream. Sound familiar? It is a homage, of sorts, to the small bistro his parents ran.

 

Other venues satisfying the insatiable appetite for the bistro are 64 Goodge Street, Camille in London’s Borough Market, Bavette in Horsforth near Leeds, and the uber bistro Maison François in St James’s. We’ve also seen major refurbishments of some of the more successful Côte restaurants (albeit alongside some closures of weaker outlets) with their concept version of the French bistro.

 

There are more to come, it seems, as chef Jackson Boxer and Experimental Group are to open the bistro Henri at The Henrietta Hotel in Covent Garden, following on from their success with a bistro-inspired dining room at Cowley Manor in the Cotswolds. Boxer sums up very well our enduring love for such venues. “For all the affection and admiration I hold for the global and eclectic nature of my home turf, my reverence for the exceptional produce and imaginative verve of the Parisian bistros of my youth remains undimmed,” he said.

 

The French might have the Olympics this year, and they will undoubtedly win plenty of gold medals, but none will shine as brightly as the county’s most gleaming export – the simple French bistro – which is certainly enjoying something of a renaissance here in the UK.

 

Hospitality never ceases to inspire. Amidst a consistently challenging market, many entrepreneurs find ways to grow, creating jobs and providing new and exciting reasons for people to socialise. It’s not easy to do, but if expansion is on an operator’s mind, a great place to start – following the lead of some of the UK’s best brands – is to look at franchising.

 

Barely a day goes by when I don’t read Propel and see another brand looking to create or extend its franchising operation. It makes sense – locations throughout the UK are incorporating more food and beverage (F&B) into their mix, so demand is high and landlords are engaged. Since 2019, 59% of UK centres have upped their proportion of F&B, while only one asset class – leisure parks – has seen more of a decrease than an increase. Even that is marginal, and unsurprisingly, these locations are giving more space to…leisure.

 

If after contemplation, franchise growth is a brand’s target, as it is for an ever-larger pool of operators, two things remain mission critical. One is pretty obvious, and we’ll get it out of the way: finding a trusted franchise partner. However, before operators even get there, doing your homework and following a data-first approach is the best way to get the franchise expansion wheels turning.

 

Data and insight feed into every step of the franchising process, starting with location planning. This is, of course, a key step for any form of business expansion; businesses need to know that any given site has the right revenue potential, target demographic access and a clear picture of what the competition looks like before committing. What makes franchising different, encouraging a more bespoke approach, is the nature of territories. We’ve worked with operators including Chopstix and Creams recently to inform franchise expansion and market evaluation. 

 

Chopstix applies data to inform its franchise expansion, which it continues to drive successfully, and at great pace. What became clear from the modelling was the need to identify “trade zones” – catchment areas capable of supporting at least one successful outlet. These are built using hundreds of data points, but ultimately, it shows the spend potential and propensity within a reasonably assessed distance of the location.

 

Mapping out early on each potential “territory” enables better decision making later, understanding how many and which ones can be feasibly combined into one franchise partner sign-up. Hitting the right amount of sites within the partner’s region of expertise, in the right places, prevents customer overlapping and the risk of internal competition, or for that matter, competition with another “trade zone”. This is something we’ve also helped Creams understand, and ultimately, achieve. 

 

Taking it a step further, it also provides the objective evidence base needed to make decisions in the modern world. A franchise partner will likely have a very strong idea of which locations will and won’t work. Quite often they’ll be right – their local knowledge is ultimately a big part of the decision to enter into an agreement with them – but the data gives all parties the vital tool for a better-informed decision.

 

Data in franchising can inspire confidence on both sides, with the franchisee able to see in black and white a well-defined opportunity, alongside the financial considerations: revenue potential for the trade zone and a clear indication of how they could make it profitable. The main company gets to understand where the growth in market share is most likely to come from. When taking a business and putting it in the hands of another person, in a part of the country or world less familiar to its founders, an objective data set creates an important level of reassurance for all parties involved.

 

We, of course, want 2024 to be a year of growth within hospitality, an opportunity to push the boundaries and take an exciting offer to people and places that haven’t yet had the chance to experience it. With the right tools, franchising will certainly play a vital role in that over the coming months and years.

 

There is debate as to when “The Troubles” started in Northern Ireland. Was it 1966, when Irish nationalists/republicans held parades throughout Ireland to mark the 50th anniversary of the Easter Rising? Or 1969, when British troops were deployed to “restore order”? Or, indeed, the years in between these two dates, when atrocities were committed by all sides?


There is little disagreement though that they ended with the Good Friday agreement in April 1998, albeit a bomb exploded in Omagh four months later, killing 29 people. Nearly 4,000 people were killed and almost 50,000 injured over the 30-year period of “The Troubles”. I remember most of this period quite vividly, visiting Belfast in 1978 to finish a book I had co-written on a photographic history of Liverpool from 1890 to 1910 called In My Liverpool Home.

 

It was printed and distributed by a publisher based in the city. I remember, during my time there, wandering into a derelict house and being quickly pulled out by my hosts in case it was rigged. There was tension in the air, soldiers on the streets and a very strong feeling that you could find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time, with disastrous consequences.


So, I had very mixed feelings going back there last weekend. I had taken my daughter to Cuba for a holiday in 2022 and wanted to reciprocate for my son. I did offer a number of exotic potential holiday destinations, but he chose a weekend in Belfast. He has no memories of “The Troubles” at all, of course.


It’s an easy flight, an easy journey into the city and an easy access to our Airbnb accommodation right in the centre. Bags dumped, we were out on the town as quickly as humanely possible, drinking Guinness and listening to live music. A very swift and really enjoyable end to being on the wagon for six months for me.


The weekend included a visit to the incomparable Titanic Museum; a secret food, pub and art tour; eight hours watching rugby (and drinking more Guinness); standing in the drizzle watching the St Patrick’s Day parade; and a black cab murals tour around east Belfast. I would strongly recommended the latter in order to fully understand some of the history behind “The Troubles”.


We went to side street cafes for big Irish breakfasts; Waterman House for a brilliant Friday night meal; Granny Annies for Saturday brunch; a National Trust pub, The Crown Liquor Saloon, for more drinking that afternoon; and to St George’s market for breakfast crepes on Sunday, feeling slightly jaded.

 

The secret food tour was a delight, including a hot chocolate cafe, an oyster bar, the oldest in-store restaurant in Belfast – where we ate big fat sausage sandwiches – and Whites pub, founded in 1630, where we devoured large bowls of Irish stew in front of an open fire.


There were so many fabulous pubs just tucked down side streets, away from the hustle and bustle of the city centre. Music poured out 

from every direction. One pub we visited had live music and live Irish dancing – the place was packed with everyone singing, laughing and dancing along with the band. It was electric.


I honestly cannot recommend the city strongly enough. Of course, we visited on a very special weekend with so much going on, but I can imagine it’s a joy to be there and be part of, at any time.


We were told “everyone hates the English” – and I am hardly surprised considering our history on the island going back to Henry VIII – but everyone we met was incredibly friendly and welcoming. Also, somewhat bemused by a mother and son choosing to visit Belfast over Cuba, I have to say. He made an excellent choice though, and I can’t wait to go back.

 

In the dynamic world of hospitality, decisions are often driven by intuition and gut feel rather than concrete data. However, my experience working across both the retail and hospitality sectors has shown me the immense value that data can bring to businesses when it comes to making better decisions and avoiding costly mistakes.

 

Retail and hospitality may seem like worlds apart, but there’s a compelling argument to suggest that they should operate more similarly. In retail, data reigns supreme, driving decision-making processes at every level. Conversely, the hospitality sector often relies on intuition, given its inherent complexity and focus on people and experiences.

 

At Hospitality Data Insights, we’ve witnessed first-hand the transformative power of data in helping businesses thrive in the hospitality sector. One of the key areas where data plays a pivotal role is in understanding customers. While internal data provides valuable insights, it only scratches the surface.

 

Our card spending insight, tracking the spending behaviour of millions of people across the hospitality sector, offers a deeper understanding of customer behaviour, enabling businesses to tailor their marketing activities effectively. Questions that were once based on hunches and gut feel, such as identifying who your competitors are or understanding customer repertoires and how they’re changing over time, can now be definitively answered through data analysis.

 

While there’s a vast array of data now available, integrating data into the fabric of the hospitality sector presents a cultural challenge. Data should not be seen as a threat to creativity or entrepreneurialism. Instead, it should be viewed as a catalyst for innovation. By validating or disproving hunches, and shedding light on the realities of customer behaviour and competitor performance, data empowers businesses to make informed decisions and drive sustainable growth.

 

Investing in data and insights should be seen as just that – an investment rather than a cost. While it may be tempting to cut corners in challenging economic times, businesses that prioritise understanding their customers, competitors and local markets are better positioned for success in the long run. Being able to understand what your local market share is, and whether you’re seeing an increasing or decreasing “share of wallet” from your own customers, are key headline performance metrics that can help businesses cut through the noise and achieve much needed clarity around their performance.

 

“Is it us or is it the market?” is a question that we frequently hear, and it’s one that data can answer definitively, freeing up management time to be focused on what businesses should do as a result of what’s actually happening, rather than spending lots of time debating different opinions on performance. The consequences of getting things wrong in the hospitality sector can be dire. For smaller operators, a single misstep, such as a poorly chosen site location, can spell disaster. This is where data truly shines. By leveraging insights to inform decisions on site selection, investments, and performance tracking, businesses can mitigate risks and capitalise on opportunities. 

 

Whether in retail or hospitality, the value of understanding what’s truly happening in the market cannot be overstated. Data provides a comprehensive picture of customer behaviour, the competitor landscape and market dynamics, offering a distinct competitive advantage. It’s time for businesses to embrace data as a source of opportunity and empowerment rather than something to be feared or avoided.

 

In conclusion, as businesses navigate the ever-changing landscape of the hospitality sector, data will undoubtedly be their guiding light. By harnessing the power of data-driven insights, businesses can make better decisions, avoid costly mistakes and, ultimately, thrive in an increasingly competitive market.


 

If you’re a hospitality business owner, financial uncertainty can be an absolute nightmare. Rising costs in particular have taken a huge toll on the UK hospitality industry. A recent survey by UKHospitality reveals that “a quarter of hospitality businesses have no cash reserves and a further 29% have less than three months’ worth”. These are staggering numbers that show the profound uncertainty gripping the hospitality industry.

 

While you can’t magically lower VAT rates and energy costs, you can take action to protect your business’ financial health. At Outmin, we see many businesses relying on mere educated guesses instead of data-driven strategies. And that’s like driving your car with a blindfold on. Surely the odds are against you. Here are five proven budgeting and forecasting strategies to help you navigate financial uncertainty.

 

Keep up with your numbers as knowledge is power. This means understanding what is making you the most money and what is not. Imagine you own a bakery. You may sell retail products, distribute wholesale goods, offer customisable orders online and even offer catering services.

Each of these revenue streams requires meticulous attention to understand its contribution to your bakery’s overall financial health. Retail sales may bring in steady revenue, but then cost you excessively in ingredients, labour and overhead expenses. Maximising profitability is more important than generating revenue.

 

And we get it, you’re already overwhelmed with admin work. Dealing with financial management or hiring someone can be a huge headache. Using data-driven accounting solutions can give you clear insights into your financial performance on a weekly basis.

 

Unsurprisingly, accurately predicting business for an entire year is nearly impossible. Unexpected changes can happen at any time, so you should avoid rigid plans because they quickly become obsolete.

 

You need to factor in those changes in your current financial plans to avoid making (potentially costly) decisions based on out-of-date data. One strategy is using rolling forecasts.

Unlike traditional annual budgeting, you can update a rolling forecast throughout the year, typically monthly or quarterly. This makes you more adaptable to market changes and helps you make better-informed decisions based on timely data.

 

Trend analysis involves looking at historical data to identify patterns that unlock better decisions in the future. For example, your restaurant chain is planning an expansion. You can use historical sales data to project the revenue generated per table for each prospective location.

Other variables, like local demographics and competitors, can refine your forecast. Then there are market trends. Let’s say you own a catering company and spot a rising preference for vegetarian meals in corporate sectors.

Noticing this shift early enables you to anticipate higher veggie demand and adjust your inventory purchase. Forward-looking financial advisory services can help you understand your business and its future direction. 

 

Performing a scenario analysis can be a really helpful resource. It includes considering best-case, worst-case and most-likely scenarios so that you’re prepared for market fluctuations. Better safe than sorry, right?

 

By examining different potential outcomes, you can better prepare for whatever the universe throws at you. Although it can be a time-consuming process, scenario analysis is a brilliant way to hedge risk and assess the impact of future events.

 

Leveraging technology is one of the best ways to deal with uncertainty. An automated accounting solution relies on artificial intelligence and expert insights to help hospitality businesses stay on top of their numbers, understand future trends and budget accordingly.

 

Trust us, advanced technology is already saving numerous businesses thousands of pounds every year, and that’s a testament to the power of data. If you’re looking to take your budgeting and forecasting to a whole new level, this is the way to go.

 

The financial storm has its challenges, but understanding the importance of budgeting and forecasting in hospitality can help you gain the competitive edge.

 

Keeping a close eye on costs, staying flexible, preparing for multiple scenarios and leveraging technology can help you on the journey ahead. Good luck, it’s a jungle out there!