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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 16th Oct 2024 - Whitbread to sell 51 pub restaurants for £56m, Marston's updates on strategy et al
Whitbread accepts offers on 51 pub restaurants for total of £56m, five-year plan will see pre-tax profit increase by at least £300m: Whitbread has accepted offers on 51 of its pub restaurant sites for a total consideration of £56m. The company said its accelerating growth plan to optimise its UK food and beverage offer “to deliver a more tailored guest proposition”, is “on track” and as a result of its five-year plan the Premier Inn operator expects to increase its adjusted profit before tax versus FY25 by at least £300m. At the end of April, Whitbread, which operates the Beefeater, Bar + Block and Brewers Fayre brands, set out plans to exit 126 of its lower-returning branded restaurants as it seeks to optimise its food and beverage offer. The revamp, costing £500m over four years, will also include the conversion of 112 restaurants to 3,500 new hotel bedrooms. Whitbread said planning applications for more than a third of the 3,500 extension rooms have now been submitted. Whitbread reported its food and beverage sales in the six weeks to 10 October 2024 were 14% behind last year, which were “in line with expectations given the accelerated growth plan”. Total UK accommodation sales at Premier Inn were 1% behind the previous year. However, the company said with the continued deployment of its commercial initiatives, its outperformance versus the market increased to one percentage point. The company stated: “We have seen an improving trend across the current trading period, after a soft start to September. Occupancy remained strong over the period at 84.2%, with London at 82.5% and the regions at 84.6%. We are also maintaining high levels of average room rate resulting in total UK revpar of £72, 4% behind last year and well ahead of pre-pandemic levels. We have seen an improvement in recent weeks with a good pick-up in bookings across October and into November. Our positive forward booked position, together with the continued deployment of our commercial initiatives, means that we remain confident in driving like-for-like sales in the second half. Having also accepted offers on 51 branded restaurants for a total consideration of £56m, we remain on course to realise expected proceeds from property-related transactions of between £175m and £225m in FY25. In Germany, we continued to deliver a strong performance through September, which is an events-led period, with total accommodation sales 26% ahead of last year. Revpar for the total estate in Germany was €79, 22% ahead of last year. Our cohort of more established hotels delivered a revpar of €87, 22% ahead of last year and significantly ahead of the market. We are continuing to build on the excellent progress we have made in the first half. With the increased maturity of our brand and estate, we have a strong forward booked position, and remain on track to breakeven on a run-rate basis this calendar year. Since the period end, we have completed two sale and leasebacks for a total consideration of £56m, representing an average yield of 4.1%. There are no changes to our previous FY25 guidance other than with increased cost efficiencies of £60m in FY25 (previously £40m-£50m), we now expect UK net inflation to be between 2% and 3% We are executing well and remain on course to deliver a step change in our profits, margins and returns as reflected in our five-year plan. Reflecting our increased confidence in the delivery of our plans over the period to FY30, we expect to increase adjusted profit before tax versus FY25 by at least £300m, and generate more than £2bn for dividends, share buy-backs and, if suitable opportunities arise, additional high-returning investments.” Whitbread also announced it is beginning a share buy-back programme of up to £100m. It comes as Whitbread reported UK food and beverage sales in the 26 weeks to 29 August 2024 were down 7% “in line with expectations” and “reflecting the changes made to a number of our branded restaurants as part of the accelerating growth plan, partially offset by stronger trading in our integrated restaurants as a result of sustained high levels of hotel occupancy”. The company reported total statutory revenue for the period was flat at £1.57bn “reflecting a slightly softer UK demand environment, investment in our accelerating growth plan and lower interest receivable, partially offset by positive momentum in Germany”. Adjusted profit before tax was down 13% to £340m compared with £391m the year before. Chief executive Dominic Paul said: “We are making excellent progress with our plans and over the next five years are set to deliver a step change in our performance which will fund significant returns to shareholders. Demonstrating our confidence, we have today announced details of our five-year Plan that sets out the scale of our ambition to FY30. In the UK, we have a clear pathway to further extend our market-leading position and capitalise on the favourable UK supply backdrop. We are determined to build on our significant outperformance since the pandemic and while the market has been slightly softer than last year, we remain on course to grow our UK returns substantially over the medium-term whilst continuing to deliver for our customers, as evidenced by our high guest scores. Our passion for operational excellence, together with our brand strength, scale and value proposition are sustaining our strong performance and revpar premium versus the rest of the UK mid-scale and economy sector. In Germany, we are really encouraged by our progress to date. Our trading performance and the progressive maturity of our estate mean we are set to reach breakeven on a run-rate basis later this year. Our longer-term plans to become the country’s number one hotel brand are also on track, as we move towards replicating our success in the UK market, delivering double digit returns on our current open portfolio by FY30. Having laid the foundations for future growth, we are executing at pace and remain confident in the outlook as reflected by our increased interim dividend and further share buy-back.”

Premium Club members to receive next Turnover & Profits Blue Book and videos from Propel’s Talent & Training Conference this week: Premium Club members will receive the next Turnover & Profits Blue Book on Friday (18 October), at noon. The database will feature 60 updated accounts and 16 new companies, taking the total to 994. A total of 624 companies are making a profit while 370 are making a loss. The Blue Book is updated each month and ranks companies by turnover, profit and profit conversion, listing directors' earnings for the past five years. Premium Club members will also receive all the videos from the Talent & Training Conference on Friday, at 9am. They include Abi Dunn, founder of Sixty Eight People, hosting a panel featuring Tom Vivace, head of talent at Turtle Bay, Gina Knight, head of people at Flat Iron, and Rachel Masing, people director at ETM, debating the pros and cons of psychometric profiling. Meanwhile, Josie Adam, Jenni Haywood and Dominique Macaly, who head up Incipio Group’s people team, talk about the incredible culture they have created and their new strategy for the company’s upcoming flagship Olympia project. Premium Club members also receive access to five other databases: the Multi-Site Database, the New Openings Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who's Who of UK Hospitality. All Premium Clubs members will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events including Restaurant Marketer and Innovator (two days in January 2025) and Excellence in Pub Retail (May 2025). Operators that are Premium Club members are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club members receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club members will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club members also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.
 
Marston’s – updated strategy will drive a high-margin, highly cash-generative local pub company: Marston’s, the operator of 1,339 pubs, which is hosting its 2024 Capital Markets Day (CMD) today (Wednesday, 16 October), has said that its updated strategy will drive a “high-margin, highly cash-generative local pub company” based on differentiated formats, and a brand portfolio that is “naturally balanced to appeal across a range of consumer segments”. The company said its management team will present the group’s strategy as a leading pure play hospitality business, centred on five key value drivers: executing a market leading operating model, targeted investment to create five differentiated pub formats, digital transformation, expansion of its managed and partnership models, and leveraging Marston’s synergies in targeted M&A. When it comes to pub formats, Propel understands that the business has recently trademarked the names Grandstand Pubs (hinting at a sport-influence format), and Woodie’s Family Pub. The company said: “Our strategy will ensure we drive guest demand and deliver amazing pub experiences whilst maintaining our focus on best-in-class operations and cost efficiencies to expand the group’s profitability and cash generation profile.” In the near to medium term, the business said it expects to deliver: Revenue growth ahead of the market, Ebitda margin expansion of 200-300 basis points, over £50m recurring free cash flow, and above 30% return on invested capital on investment focused capex. It said that the delivery of the strategy and financial targets are underpinned by a strong balance sheet, with no material refinancing requirement for at least ten years, and a disciplined capital allocation framework focused on enhancing shareholder value. Justin Platt, chief executive of Marston’s, said: “Marston’s is embarking on a new and exciting chapter as a pure play hospitality business. At today’s CMD we are outlining a differentiated strategy for growth that is anchored in the needs of our guests and focused on driving sustained value for our shareholders. With a relentless focus on delivering amazing pub experiences, Marston’s has a real opportunity to drive significant, incremental value in the coming years. We are very excited by the opportunities that lie ahead.”
 
Just Eat reports UK orders down 1% in third quarter: Just Eat Takeaway has reported orders in the UK and Ireland dropped 1% to 60.1 million in the third quarter but gross transaction value increased – up 6% to €1,764m. Year to date orders in UK and Ireland were down 1% to 180.4 million while GTV is up 8% to €5,199m compared with 2023. Total orders for the business fell 6% in the quarter to 211.1 million, while total GTV was down 3% to €6,344m with North America down 12% and southern Europe and Australia/New Zealand also falling 12%. The business stated: “In the first nine months of 2024, the constant currency GTV growth excluding North America was 3% year-on-year, within the guided range of 2% to 6% GTV growth. On reported basis, growth was 4% year-on-year for the period. There was continued momentum in northern Europe and the UK and Ireland segments, representing circa 60% of group orders. Combined under the three share buyback programmes launched in the past 18 months, we have so far repurchased €340m worth of shares. The cancellation of approximately 11 million shares previously held in treasury, representing 5% of total issued shares, was completed on 8 October 2024. The company currently holds 6,137,585 shares in treasury. The board reiterates the following guidance for 2024: constant currency GTV growth excluding North America in the range of 2% to 6% year-on-year, adjusted Ebitda of approximately €450m, free cash flow (before changes in working capital) to continue to be positive in 2024 and thereafter, and long-term target of group adjusted Ebitda margin in excess of 5% of GTV. Management, together with its advisers, continues to actively explore the partial or full sale of Grubhub.” Jitse Groen, chief executive of Just Eat Takeaway, said: “We made good progress across our key strategic pillars, which we believe will drive growth. In line with our strategy to diversify, several new partnerships were launched across adjacencies like grocery, pharmacy and wellness in many of our markets. Furthermore, cost and operational efficiencies have allowed us to increase investments while maintaining our outlook. We are well on track to deliver our guidance for the full year.”
 
UK inflation falls to 1.7%: UK inflation fell to 1.7% in the year to September, the lowest rate in more than three years, official figures show. Lower airfares and petrol prices were the main driver behind the fall, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The drop in the rate was larger than expected – economists had predicted a 1.9% rate. It also means inflation is now below the Bank of England’s 2% target, paving the way for interest rates to be cut further next month.
 
UK wage growth slows: Wage growth slowed to the weakest pace in more than two years in August amid further signs of a cooling jobs market. Official figures showed a decline in average weekly earnings growth, excluding bonuses, from 5.1% to 4.9% in the three months to August, the slowest pace since June 2022, reports The Times. The figure was in line with economists’ forecasts. When including bonus payments, wage growth was lower at 3.8%, according to the Office for National Statistics. Earnings growth has been steadily falling over the last year due to interest rate rises as the Bank of England attempted to dampen wage growth in an effort to reduce inflation. In further signs of a slowing jobs market, the ONS said the number of employees on payrolls dropped by 15,000 between August and July, after a 35,000 drop the previous month. The total number of job vacancies also fell again by 34,000 in the three-month period, while the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits rose. The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.1% to 4%, defying expectations of no change in the three months to August. A slowing labour market may embolden rate-setters at the Bank of England to cut interest rates again this year after they lowered the base rate from 5.25% to 5% in August. Financial markets are betting on at least two quarter-point reductions from the monetary policy committee before the end of the year.

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