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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Fri 25th Oct 2024 - Punch reports ‘encouraging’ current trading with profitability ahead of prior year, 18 new pubs forecast to deliver additional £2.3m of Ebitda
Punch reports ‘encouraging’ current trading with profitability ahead of prior year, 18 new pubs forecast to deliver additional £2.3m of Ebitda: Punch Pubs & Co has reported “encouraging” current trading, with profitability ahead of the prior year, and said the acquisition of 18 new pubs in the first quarter of its new financial year is forecast to deliver an additional £2.3m of run-rate Ebitda. “Quarter one trading to date has been encouraging, with profitability ahead of the prior year,” the company said in its accounts for the year to 11 August 2024. “Subsequent to the year end, 18 pubs have been acquired in quarter one, which are forecast to deliver an additional £2.3m of run-rate Ebitda. Mat Ebitda of £91.2m to 11 August 2024 will be further boosted by (i) +£3.4m incremental Ebitda from the recent acquisition of 16 pubs in the period; and (ii) +£2.8m of run-rate cost saving efficiencies to be realised within the next 12 months; leading to an adjusted run-rate Ebitda of £97.4m.” It comes after the group returned to profit in the period, with a £13.7m pre-tax loss in 2023 turning into a profit of £1m. Total revenue for the year was £324.3m compared to £313.5m in the prior year period of 52 weeks to 13 August 2024. Drink revenue was up from £243.2m in 2023 to £251.5m, while food revenue rose from £32.9m to £33.7m and rental income increased from £28.4m to £29.3m. All three divisions (Leased and Tenanted, Management Partnership and Laine) delivered like-for-like sales growth for the 52-week period when compared to the prior year. Underlying Ebitda for the pub estates (Management Partnership, Leased & Tenanted and Laine) before central costs increased by £11.2m to £117.3m, up 11%. Ebitda for the period was £89.1m (prior year 52 weeks: £79.1m), of which £91.2m was classed as underlying Ebitda (prior year 52 weeks: £81.3m). Underlying Ebitda for the 52 weeks to 11 August 2024 of £91.2m compares positively to the £76m of adjusted underlying Ebitda from the wider Punch Group in the year to August 2019, being the most recent financial year prior to the covid pandemic. During the year, the group acquired 36 pubs at a cost of £25.2m. The acquisitions have been funded from available cash resources and drawing on the revolving credit facility. In the 52-week period, the group has spent £28.8m (prior year 52 weeks: £30.8m) on expansionary and maintenance capital. “As noted in previous reports, we have identified the next tranche of pubs to convert to the Management Partnership model, having identified an additional population of up to 70 pubs that would be suitable for conversion, with conversion phased progressively over a three-year period,” the group said. “We are pleased with the strong returns on investment that we are seeing from past conversions and would expect to achieve similar returns on future conversions of between 20% and 30%.” Net proceeds from the sale of properties in the year was £14.8m (prior year 52 weeks: £11.2m). After having realised £14.8m from property disposals in the period, property assets increased by £22.7m in the period to £915.7m (13 August 2023: £893m). The group said it benefits from operating a predominantly freehold estate, with 92% of the pub portfolio owned on a freehold or long leasehold (greater than 50 years remaining lease term) basis. The current net book value of properties at £915.7m. The group generated a net cash inflow from operating activities for the year of £91.2m (prior year 52 weeks: £78.8mi). An interim dividend of £20.6m for the current financial year ending 11 August 2024 was paid in the period. This dividend represents the first such payment since the launch of the bond in May 2021. As at the 19 May 2024 period end date, the group had £66.5m of available financial resources (13 August 2023: £60.3m), represented by £5.3m of cash and cash equivalents and £39m undrawn against the revolving credit facility and £22.2m from 32 revolving credit facility funded freehold pub acquisitions. In addition, £2.6m of cash held in deposit accounts is classified within prepayments (13 August 2023: £2.6m).  Punch features in the Premium Club Turnover & Profits Blue Book, which is available exclusively to Premium Club members and features 994 companies. Its turnover of £324.3m for the year ended 11 August 2024 is the 37th highest in the database. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The single subscription rate is £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com to upgrade your subscription.

Next Who’s Who of UK Hospitality to be released today featuring 873 companies: The next Who’s Who of UK Hospitality will be released to Premium Club members today (Friday, 25 October), at midday. The database now features 873 companies and more than 236,000 words of content. The database will feature 101 updated entries and 20 new companies. The companies, listed in alphabetical order, will have their most recent results reported as well as broader information around Ebitda, plans and trading style available. The database merges Companies House information, interviews and other public information to provide an easy to reference and exhaustive guide to the sector. Premium Club members also receive access to five other databases: the Multi-Site Database, the New Openings Database, the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database and the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database. All Premium Clubs members will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events including Restaurant Marketer and Innovator (two days in January 2025) and Excellence in Pub Retail (May 2025). Operators that are Premium Club members are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club members receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club members will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club members also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Plans to ban smoking in pub beer gardens set to be axed: A ban on smoking in outdoor spaces, such as pub beer gardens, could be abandoned. The government is said to be ‘spooked’ by warnings from the hospitality industry that the measure could lead to job losses and pub closures. It has reportedly stepped in to remove the policy from the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which is yet to be published, reports The Guardian. The paper reported that No 10 privately believes that banning people from smoking in pub beer gardens is an ‘unserious’ policy that is not backed up by good evidence. They are said to be worried by the fierce opposition from the hospitality trade. Health Secretary Wes Streeting said earlier this week that the long-delayed Bill would be tabled before Christmas. He said: “There’s always those choices and trade-offs about the benefits [to] the public health… and then potential downsides that people raise, either believing that it's too far an encroachment on people’s lives and liberty or that it might impact on businesses.” The proposed addition of a ban on outdoor smoking is said to be behind the delay to publishing the Bill. “It is an unserious policy – nobody really believes smoking outdoors is a major health problem,” one Downing Street official told the paper. Trade body UKHospitality warned that the ban could result in serious economic harm to hospitality venues, while the British Beer and Pub Association said the policy would have a devastating impact on pubs already struggling' with rising costs. A second No 10 official confirmed to the paper it has been blocking the plan as a direct result of such concerns. A Labour source said: “No decision has been taken on pubs and hospitality.”

Stonegate boss warns of ‘widespread’ pub closures unless business rates are addressed: Pubs face widespread closures unless the chancellor announces an extension to business rates relief in next week’s Budget, the UK’s biggest pub company has warned. David McDowall, chief executive of Stonegate Group, said thousands of landlords currently make just 12p of profit for every pint of beer they sell. Help on business rates for the hospitality sector in England and Wales is set to run out in April.  Mr McDowall said that if it is removed, small publicans will see their business rates bill quadruple from April. Along with other costs the businesses are facing, he feared “they don’t have any more to give”. Rates relief was introduced for pubs, restaurants, bars and cafes in 2020 in response to the covid pandemic, and was last November extended until April next year. The measure means companies in England can claim 75% relief on business rates up to £110,000, or 40% for firms in Wales. Mr McDowall told the BBC’s Today programme that the hospitality industry has faced a “barrage” of challenges in recent years. These include recovering from covid as well as high inflation, energy costs in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the effect of the cost of living on customers. “The complete removal of that rate relief would prove very, very costly for pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes up and down the length and breadth of the UK,” he said. Meanwhile, a freeze on alcohol duty is scheduled to end on 1 February next year. McDowall is one of a number of representatives from the hospitality industry who this week signed a letter to chancellor Rachel Reeves asking for relief to be extended. It warned about “the onrushing business rates cliff edge” facing firms 153 days after she delivers the Budget. On Thursday, UKHospitality and the British Retail Consortium said that in the year to March, businesses in these sectors paid nearly £9bn in business rates. This is nearly a third of the total amount of revenue the government raises from business rates. They said that if relief is removed, it would cost hospitality and retail an additional £2.5bn. Earlier this week, UKHospitality also called on the chancellor to stick to Labour’s manifesto pledge to reform business rates. It argued that because its businesses can usually be found in central locations such as high streets, the cost to companies is high. A spokesperson for the Treasury said: “We’re supporting businesses like our well-loved pubs through pledges to make the business rates system fairer, cap corporation tax at 25% and to publish a corporate tax roadmap so that they have some welcome certainty to plan for the future.”
 
Consumer optimism falls in October: Consumers became more despondent in October as anxieties about Rachel Reeves’s first budget next week outweighed optimism over falling inflation falling, according to a survey. GfK’s consumer confidence index, which has been published since the 1970s, slipped by one point to -21 in October from -20 in September, the lowest reading since March. But experts are more upbeat about the health of the economy than consumers, reports The Times. Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for UK GDP growth this year sharply to 1.1% from 0.7%. According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics this month, CPI inflation declined to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in the previous month, a three-year low. The larger-than-expected drop amplified expectations that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November and December meetings from 5%. Consumer confidence typically improves as people anticipate more interest rate cuts. The GfK index is closely watched by economists for indications on whether households are poised to increase or decrease spending in the coming months.

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