Thu 14th Nov 2024 - Harden’s: London restaurant market experiencing longest prolonged period of low growth in 25 years Harden’s – London restaurant market experiencing longest prolonged period of low growth in last quarter of a century: London diners are enjoying superior quality restaurants but with an ever-shorter lifespan, the new edition of Harden’s London Restaurants notes. Growth and churn rates suggest the capital’s restaurant market is experiencing the longest prolonged period of low growth in the last quarter of a century, it said. However, a continuing influx of new restaurants achieving high acclaim shows London is still holding its own when it comes to quality. In the last 12 months, the guide has added 132 newcomers, with only two years showing lower levels of openings since 2010. The rate of closures stands at 84 – not exceptional by the standards of 2013-2017 but high compared with most years post-2000 – while this year’s net growth rate of 48 is the sixth-lowest rate since 2000. Harden’s co-founder Peter Harden said while the data indicates a market reaching a state of maturity, the responses in Harden’s diners poll indicates a vibrant dining scene in the capital. “It is becoming increasingly clear that growth in London’s restaurants is stuck in low gear and has been for some time,” he added. “This trend was masked in part by the pandemic – low growth had seemed to be a consequence of covid-19 from which recovery would be imminent – but it’s now becoming clear that it was reflective of something deeper. Now, with our third year of data post-pandemic, this is looking like a seven-year flatline. But although London’s restaurant market is exhibiting a similar level of low growth to that experienced in the early nineties, the calibre of the eateries populating the city is a far cry from what was on offer 30 years ago.” Harden said even good restaurants can fail to turn a profit now, with so many offerings in a relatively fixed pool of dining spend. The lifespan of restaurants also appears to be getting shorter, contributing to the significant rate of closures, but price inflation is at last abating, with this year seeing a more reasonable 4.4% uplift in prices (compared with 9.2% last year). Harden added: “It’s important to not look at this too bleakly. The dining scene is still incredibly interesting and vibrant, but renewal is a problem. In this unforgiving market, restaurants are getting a shorter period in the sun in which to make their mark and secure their future. But we are seeing newcomers making an immediate impact, as demonstrated by The Devonshire in Soho, which leapt straight to the top of this year’s best bar and pub category. Compared with 30 years ago, we’re getting more quality openings, but the market that they are entering is a harder one, and how long they will endure is the big question.”