Propel Morning Briefing Mast HeadAccess Banner  
Propel Morning Briefing Mast Head Propel's LinkedIn LinkPaul's Twitter Link Paul's X Link

Opus Apeiro Banner
Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Mon 16th Dec 2024 - Update: Foodservice inflation, Liberation Group and Guinness supplies
Foodservice inflation continues to ease but Budget casts shadow over future: Year-on-year inflation in the hospitality sector fell to 2.2% in October, the latest Foodservice Price Index report from Prestige Purchasing and CGA by NIQ shows. It is the 16th consecutive month of decline, providing further relief for businesses and consumers after several years of high inflation. October also recorded month-on-month deflation of -0.4%, with prices falling in six of the Index’s ten categories. In year-on-year terms, fish was the only category to experience deflation, while vegetables and sugar, jam, syrups and chocolate continued to report the highest inflation. While the short-term trend is positive, the government’s autumn Budget has introduced significant uncertainty into the outlook for foodservice prices in 2025. The Foodservice Price Index report projects that the Budget measures will add 2.3% to the previously forecasted rate of inflation. If additional wage and national insurance costs are passed up the supply chain in full, food and drink inflation could rise sharply again next year and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis. Shaun Allen, chief executive of Prestige Purchasing, said: “While the continued easing of year-on-year inflation is encouraging, the potential impact of the autumn Budget is a serious concern. The foodservice sector is still grappling with ongoing volatility, and the possibility of further significant price increases in 2025 adds another layer of complexity. Operators need to remain vigilant and closely monitor the market to manage these additional challenges effectively.” Reuben Pullan, senior insight consultant at CGA by NIQ, added: “Sixteen successive months of inflation decline has brought welcome respite for hospitality ahead of the crucial Christmas and new year period. However, the Budget’s new burden on employers threatens the fragile recovery and will undermine the confidence of both businesses and consumers. This is a resilient and entrepreneurial sector with a bright long-term future, but cost pressures are likely to make for a difficult trading environment for some time to come.”

Discover how to nurture a foresight-driven approach to gain stakeholder buy-in at Restaurant Marketer & Innovator, open for bookings: Discover how to nurture a foresight-driven approach to gain stakeholder buy-in at the Restaurant Marketer & Innovator European Summit. Joanna Lepore, founder of Foresight Inside Group and host of the Looking Outside Podcast, will share how businesses can integrate strategic foresight into long-term plans. Drawing on her experience at McDonald's and Mars Wrigley, Lepore will explore how storytelling shapes the future. Restaurant Marketer & Innovator European Summit is returning for its seventh edition, and tickets are now on sale. The event is a partnership between Propel and Think Hospitality, aiming to build a community, promote the sharing of ideas, recognise talent and define the future of eating out. Bookings are now open for the two-day conference as the centrepiece of the January event series, taking place on 21 and 22 January at One Moorgate Place in London. The conference will focus on technology, marcomms strategies, proposition, brand building, the latest market insights, digital developments and diversification of revenue streams. It is designed for customer-focused chief executives, marketers, technology and innovation teams, as well as investors wanting to better understand the latest marketing, innovation and development opportunities to build market share and grow. For the full speaker schedule, click hereThe pre-Christmas early-bird prices are as follows: a one-day ticket for operators is £295 plus VAT while a two-day ticket is £550 plus VAT. Supplier tickets are £395 plus VAT for one day and £700 plus VAT for two. Propel Premium Club members receive a 20% discount. To book, email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com.

Liberation Group – Christmas bookings ‘incredibly strong’ following ‘encouraging’ second half trading, rebrands to Butcombe Group: Brewer and retailer Liberation Group has reported “incredibly strong” Christmas bookings and “encouraging” second half trading, as it rebrands to Butcombe Group. Jonathan Lawson, chief executive of the newly named Butcombe Group, said: “Christmas bookings have been incredibly strong for some time, with a double-digit growth against last year's performance. Interestingly, the time of day showing the strongest bookings growth is the morning, which points to growing demand for brunches and lower alcohol occasions. We have also seen a real move to celebrate Christmas out of the home, with bookings on Christmas day up significantly. Despite recent storms and fragile consumer confidence, we remain encouraged by trading in the second half overall, which is running slightly ahead of the H1 like for like sales growth of 6.4%. We have been particularly heartened by the performance in our London pubs, where the investment in our sites and offer has been really well received by our customers, and we have driven double digit growth in London for the last 12 weeks. We have strong plans for the new financial year which we approach with confidence, despite the deeply unhelpful budget from the UK government, which we see as being inflationary and contrary to their much-vaunted support for business.” It comes as the group said Butcombe Group will be its new corporate identity, with the existing operating brands remaining the same – Butcombe Pubs & Inns, Butcombe Brewing Co, Butcombe Boutique Inns, Liberation Pubs & Bars and Liberation Brewing Co. Over the last seven years, Butcombe Group has expanded significantly through organic growth and strategic acquisitions from Brains, Wadworth and Cirrus Inns. The expansion and development of the pub estate has been focused on the south of England, and this area now represents the group’s largest concentration of pubs. The group’s accommodation offer has continued to develop, growing to over 400 available rooms, with plans to increase this to over 700 within the existing estate. This year has also seen the successful launch of the group’s premium room offering, Butcombe Boutique Inns. During the same period, the group’s Butcombe Brewing and Drinks business has continued to grow alongside its packaging, distribution and free trade business. Butcombe Original has overtaken Doombar as the south west’s number one selling cask ale and top ten UK-wide, whilst Tall Tales Pale Ale is one of the fastest growing keg ales in the south of England. Looking forward, these three strategic priorities – Butcombe Pubs & Inns managed estate, Butcombe Brewing Co and Butcombe Boutique Inns – will be the group’s main drivers of growth. The company said rebranding to Butcombe Group “creates cohesion between these three sub brands and champions a name that has become synonymous with award-winning beer, quality accommodation and a market leading premium food and drink offering”. It said its Channel Islands operations “remain a critical part of the group and will continue to operate and grow under the Liberation brands”. Lawson said: “The Butcombe brand has quickly established itself as a leader in the premium pubs and drinks business. Following a period of successful expansion, it is now the largest part of our business and the area where the majority of our growth is likely to come from. Adopting Butcombe as our corporate brand is the logical next step and will support our exciting plans for future development. The Channel Islands will continue to remain an important part of our business and growth plans, operating unchanged under the Liberation brands.”
 
Guinness crisis comes to a head as pubs run dry: Many pubs have completely run out of Guinness in the run up to Christmas – even after rationing supplies – while others say they will run out this week. Earlier this month, The Times reported that the nation’s Guinness stocks were being depleted after a year of surging demand. Now, the newspaper reports that the crisis appears to be coming to a head. Phil Inzani, who runs the Polo bar in central London, said his taps went dry on Saturday evening and is now desperately awaiting a new delivery. He said: “It’s creating an awkward situation for us. We do have stocks of Guinness without alcohol but it’s not quite the same.” Elsewhere, the Old Ivy House, in Clerkenwell, London, ran out on Friday night, despite rationing the drink all week. The pub issued cards to customers which entitled them to a pint of Guinness but only once they had bought two other drinks first. Landlady Katie Davidson said: “I normally make sure I have seven barrels per week, and I would up that in the run-up to Christmas. But I was restricted to only four [by our brewery]. So, on Wednesday, when I got my order, we only had half a barrel left in the cellar at the busiest time of the year. And we’d run out by 10pm on Friday night.” Fiona Hornsby, who runs three pubs in Liverpool, said one of her venues ran out on Sunday, and although she has been promised more deliveries on Monday she is being limited to only four kegs, meaning that at the current rate of consumption, she will have nothing left again by Wednesday. She said: “Many places began to stock up for Christmas early on so have managed so far, but this week I think we will start to see more running short.” She added: “We’re making sure we’ve a dark craft beer and cask beer as an alternative, but most Guinness drinkers won’t drink them and will leave for a pub that can supply them. Guinness has told us nothing, only that they hope to resolve the issue soon, which isn’t particularly helpful. We are free trade too, but ringing around, wholesalers they’ve none to spare either. It’s disappointing. Surely Guinness has seen the increase in sales this year and could have planned better?” In Wales, Nick Newman, who manages eight pubs for Croeso Pubs and is chairman of Cardiff Licensees Forum, says he is down to only three or four days’ supply. He said: “We’re counting on deliveries coming in [this week] to see us through.” The latest sales data shows that Guinness consumption has risen by more than 20% per cent over the past 12 months, with many people putting the rising demand down to celebrities and social media influencers. In a statement, Guinness owner Diageo said: “Over the past month we have seen exceptional consumer demand for Guinness in Great Britain. We have maximised supply, and we are working proactively with our customers to manage the distribution to trade as efficiently as possible.”

Cake Box appoints two new NEDs: Cake Box, the specialist retailer of fresh cream cakes, has appointed two new non-executive directors. Catherine Nunn has become chair of the company’s ESG committee and Malar Velaigam chair of its remuneration committee. Nunn served as the UK retail director for BP between 2011 and 2016 and previously held a variety of leadership positions in BP’s European retail operations over a 21-year career with the company. Since 2016, she has been working with Lakeland to help the family-owned retailer develop and implement its strategic plans and vision. Velaigam is currently a director at Dowgate Capital and was previously a director at RBC Capital Markets and worked at Cavendish Financial from 2013 to 2022. Shaun Smith, independent non-executive director, will leave the board on 31 December 2024, and as previously announced, Alison Green is also stepping down from the board, and this will also take effect from the same date. Martin Blair, non-executive chair of Cake Box, said: “I am delighted to warmly welcome Catherine and Malar. They will bring a significant depth of talent and vast experience as leaders in their field to Cake Box and I know their insights will play a significant part in helping drive our continued performance and taking Cake Box to the next level in its growth trajectory. I would like to thank Alison and Shaun for their hard work and valuable counsel and useful insights and support.” Cake Box has more than 230 UK stores and last month said its will make its international debut next year with its first store in Paris.
 
Roadside Retail acquires Brampton Hut Services: Brampton Hut Services in Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, has been acquired by Roadside Retail, the joint venture between Roadside Real Estate and Meadow Real Estate Fund VI LP set up to acquire and develop UK-based roadside real estate assets. The 8,617 square-foot development features six purpose-built units, comprising three drive-thru stores and two drive-to units, all secured by tenants with strong covenants such as Starbucks, Burger King, Wendy’s, Greggs and Subway. It sits adjacent to a well-established service station featuring operators such as McDonald’s, Brewer’s Fayre and Premier Inn. Charles Dickson, executive chairman, at Roadside Real Estate, said: “Brampton Hut is a high-quality cluster of ESG-compliant drive-thru and drive-to units, let to household names. We have enjoyed working with the Godwin team on this transaction, with an asset which meets our demanding acquisition criteria.” Brampton Hut was the site of the first Wendy’s drive-thru since the brand’s return to the UK, when it was opened by franchisee Blank Table in January 2023.
 
Concerns from pub owners as Devon town plans ‘tourist parking tax’: Pub owners in a Devon town planning a ‘tourist parking tax’ have raised concerns over the proposal. Businesses in Salcombe warned the plan to charge tourists more than locals to park in their town, and across the district of South Hams, could be detrimental to the area’s economy. Jude Macintosh, manager of the Ship in Dock Inn, said: “Dartmouth and Salcombe is particularly challenging on parking, and it does have a knock-on effect with people coming. Our bookings have gone down by a third because now we don’t provide permits. We took it away because we can’t afford to carry that cost. The councils are just trying to keep people away because they are not doing anything to entice them.” Roger Savin, 81, owner of the Little Elbow Room in Totnes, added: “How are they going to know if the car is not local? It can have a plate from London with the person being from here.” A consultation period on the proposal ends on 5 January, with a decision to be made in the same month. The city of York last week said it planning to introduce a tourist tax that could see visitors pay more for hotel rooms. Manchester last year introduced a system where visitors face a £1 charge per night, while Liverpool charges a levy on some accommodation properties. Wales is considering plans for a nightly charge for visitors staying in campsites, hostels, hotels and rented rooms, while Edinburgh is gearing up to introduce Scotland’s first tourist levy in 2026.

Return to Archive Click Here to Return to the Archive Listing
 
Punch Taverns Link
Return to Archive Click Here to Return to the Archive Listing
Propel Premium
 
Square Kiosk Banner
 
Bums on Seats Group Banner
 
Nory Banner
 
Tenzo Banner
 
Access Banner
 
Testo Banner
 
Tevalis Banner
 
Tenzo Banner
 
Nutritics Banner
 
Contract Furniture Group Banner
 
Propel Banner
 
Venners Banner
 
Airship – Toggle Banner
 
Wireless Social Banner
 
Startle Banner
 
Deliverect Banner
 
CACI Banner
 
Meaningful Vision Banner
 
Growth Kitchen Banner
 
Zonal Banner
 
Purple Story Banner
 
HGEM Banner
 
Zonal Banner
 
Christie & Co Banner
 
Sideways Banner
 
McCain Banner