Christie & Co – 2025 will continue to see gradual recovery in casual dining sector and polarisation in pub market: Christie & Co has forecast that 2025 will continue to see a gradual recovery in the casual dining sector while the pub market will remain polarised. In its annual Business Outlook report, Christie & Co said that in 2024, it started to see a recovery in the casual dining sector, with brands looking for new sites and reporting an uptick in margins. The company also forecast the continued growth of quick service restaurants (QSR), that fine dining will become more exclusive and expensive to customers, that the sector will see market integration for greater synergy benefits, and that there will be an “overheating of rents for QSR drive-thru sites outside of towns”. The report notes that, despite challenging trading conditions, the casual dining sector is in a recovery phase, with brands looking to acquire new sites and reporting an uptick in margins. Like pubs, the number of full-service restaurants has fallen, but as profitability has started to stabilise, Christie & Co predicted there will be outlet growth in 2025. The report said 2024 saw a negative 7.9% movement in Christie & Co’s restaurant price index. Simon Chaplin, senior director of pubs, restaurants and franchise at Christie & Co, said: “2024 proved to be a tipping point for many in the restaurant sector, as the well-publicised pressures mounted and support in most forms came to an end. Those who are still here in 2025 are now in a prime position to take advantage of the continued appetite to spend on hospitality, which increased last year, as opposed to cooking at home as supermarket spend decreased. To date, this has been focused on the fast-growing QSR market, but will filter into casual dining brands as the year progresses, who will expand carefully with great property deals available. Unfortunately, some high-end venues have already disappeared, but this allows those who remain to become even more exclusive, ‘occasion’ restaurants, for the benefit of both customer and restaurateurs.” The report acknowledged that while the UK hospitality sector continues to face headwinds, the market remained dynamic in 2024, with an increased level of transactional activity in the pub sector assisted by reasonable trading conditions. The volume of deals agreed, exchanges and completed transactions were all up compared with 2023, with 36% more deals completed by Christie & Co. Christie & Co’s insights reveal several key trends, including strong demand for assets under £600,000 and for prime properties, with the mid-market proving to be more challenging. Data also revealed that corporate buyers were responsible for much activity, particularly tenanted pub companies both as sellers and buyers. A total of 88% of pubs sold were for continued use, “demonstrating the sector’s resilience and the important role of pubs in communities across the UK”. Christie & Co said while the sentiment of operators was cautiously optimistic at the start of 2024, this was impacted by the government’s autumn Budget announcement of rises in employers’ national insurance contributions and national living and minimum wage, and that business rates relief will be cut. Consequently, prices remain broadly flat, with Christie & Co reporting a marginal increase of 0.7% in the price index. The report forecasts that the pub market will remain polarised, with strong demand for assets sub £600,000, and at the prime end of the market, there will be a continued increase in M&A activity; operational challenges for pub owners and operators will continue; and that emerging signs of distress will encourage opportunistic buyers. Stephen Owens, managing director of pubs and restaurants at Christie & Co, said: “While there continues to be operational headwinds in the pub sector, we are encouraged by the fact that transactional volumes have increased and the number of pubs sold which continue to trade as pubs remains high. This demonstrates that buyers still see the resilience and long-term future of the sector. However, pricing remains paramount as operators look to successfully navigate the immediate trading environment.”   

Propel 500 report – UK is uniquely positioned to become a global leader in experiential leisure: The UK will see further innovation and growth in the experiential leisure sector during 2025, writes Phil Pemberton, Propel’s director of Premium services, in the introduction to the Propel 500 report. The comprehensive report showcases the UK’s 500 leading hospitality operators ranked by turnover, providing more than 90,000 words of analysis – delving into company histories, leadership structures, site numbers and financial performance, making it an essential resource for industry professionals. Pemberton’s is just one article in a report that is delivered in two parts: an introductory PDF, featuring deep dives into the top 25 companies and 6,500 words of insight from Propel’s expert writers, and a fully searchable Excel sheet, offering easy access to all the data. Further analysis includes Mark Wingett’s exploration of mergers and acquisitions shaping the Top 500’s future and Tim Street’s view of the UK’s franchise market. Katherine Doggrell examines developments in UK hotels, while Mark Bentley, business development director at HDI, identifies emerging growth sectors, and Maria Vanifatova, founder of Meaningful Vision, analyses trends in QSRs. Together, the Propel 500 companies generate more than £30bn in turnover across 51,000 sites, and the report spans seven key segments: pubs and bars, hotels, quick service restaurants (QSR), casual dining, cafe and bakery, experiential leisure and fine dining. A list of these operators can be discovered now by visiting the Propel 500 page on Propel’s website. Propel 500 is available now for £595 plus VAT. Existing Premium Club members can purchase it for £395 plus VAT. Premium Club members will receive the report for free on Friday, 28 February at 9am. Order the Propel 500 report today by emailing: kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com.

Individual Restaurants preparing to grow its portfolio, identify franchise opportunities and expand globally following record Christmas sales, including biggest ever trading day: Individual Restaurants has said it is preparing to grow its portfolio, identify franchise opportunities and expand globally following record Christmas sales, including its biggest ever trading day. Having hired former Busaba marketing director Neve Rabbou as its new sales and marketing director, the group said it is also planning to open new brand propositions and identify acquisition opportunities. It comes as Individual Restaurants, which owns and operates a portfolio of 32 restaurants nationwide, also reported record covers growth as it outperformed the market during the peak trading period. It achieved total sales growth of 14% in the four weeks of December across its portfolio of brands – Piccolino, Riva Blu and Restaurant Bar & Grill – including its biggest ever trading day, on 13 December. Like-for-like sales increased by 8% in December while covers increased by 4% year on year. The group said investing £4m in renovations across its in 2024 contributed to 70% of sites achieving record-breaking trading days in December. Chief executive Andrew Garton said: “It has been a milestone Christmas for Individual Restaurants, with record-breaking sales and impressive covers growth, and we’re proud to have outperformed the market in terms of spend and transactions. Investing in the evolution of our flagship brand, Piccolino, has been a key driving force behind the sales success and will continue to be a catalyst for growth as we seek to develop our portfolio and enter new markets in 2025. Our data-led approach has allowed us to understand our guests better than ever, developing propositions fit for every brand, and the success of our new experience-led loyalty programme, Club IR, is testament to this. The outcome of the autumn Budget will be very challenging for the hospitality sector in 2025. However, we remain resilient in the face of cost pressures and committed to long-term investment, setting our sights on new openings and global expansion opportunities.”