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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 22nd Jan 2025 - JD Wetherspoon and Revel Collective trading updates
JD Wetherspoon lfl sales up 5.1% in first half and 6.1% over Christmas period: JD Wetherspoon has said its like-for-like sales were up 5.1% in the first half of its financial year and 6.1% over Christmas period. In a trading update for the six months to 26 January 2025, it said like-for-like sales were 5.1% higher than the same period a year ago, with bar sales up 4.5%, food by 5.6% and slot/fruit machines by 11.7%, while hotel room sales decreased by 6.5%. Like-for-like sales for the last 12 weeks, or the second quarter of its financial year, were 4.6% higher than the same period a year ago. The company said total sales have grown by 4.0% in the year to date – slightly less than like-for-like sales due to a small number of disposals. Like-for-like sales for the main Christmas period, the three weeks from 16 December 2024 to 5 January 2025, were up 6.1%. Interest costs for FY25, excluding IFRS 16 notional interest, are expected to be around £47m (2024: £53m), while debt levels at the end of FY25 are currently expected to be between £680m and £700m (FY24: £660m). In the year-to-date, the company has opened two pubs – in Marlow, Buckinghamshire, and at London Waterloo station. The company plans to open a total of nine pubs in the year, including sites at London Bridge station, Fulham Broadway underground station, Manchester airport, Beaconsfield, Wetherby and Bath. In addition, a further four franchised pubs will open at Haven Holiday Parks. Six pubs have been sold in the year, giving rise to a cash inflow of £4.1m, and the company currently has a trading estate of 796 pubs. JD Wetherspoon chairman Sir Tim Martin said: “From 1 April 2025 labour-related costs at Wetherspoon will increase by around £60m per annum. Government-mandated wage increases have a significantly bigger impact on pub and restaurant companies than supermarkets. As previously highlighted, supermarkets pay no VAT in respect of food sales, whereas pubs pay 20%. This tax advantage allows supermarkets to subsidise the price of beer they sell. A direct consequence, as Morgan Stanley have recently calculated, is that beer volumes in the on-trade (mainly pubs, clubs and restaurants) have decreased by an incredible 52% between 2000 and 2023. It is a clear principle of taxation that taxes should be fair and equitable, as between different types of companies. The VAT distortions that exist today will inevitably create more supermarkets and less pubs. Given the public’s love of pubs, the only possible explanation for this tax discrepancy is that prime ministers and other legislators, in the 45 years since Wetherspoon started trading, have been dinner party goers, rather than pub goers. Food at dinner parties is VAT-free, subsidised by the legendary ‘man on the Clapham omnibus’, who has fish and chips at his local pub. Wetherspoon therefore calls upon Sir Kier Starmer to redress this imbalance, thereby striking a blow for tax equality and ending discrimination in favour of dull (yawn, yawn) dinner parties. The company is confident of a reasonable outcome for the year, although forecasting is more difficult, given the extent of the increased costs.” JD Wetherspoon features in the Propel Turnover & Profits Blue Book, which is available exclusively to Premium Club members and features 978 companies. Its turnover of £2,035,000,000 for the year ending 28 July 2024 is the sixth highest in the database. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The single subscription rate is £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com to upgrade your subscription.

Next Who’s Who of UK Hospitality to feature 129 updated entries and 18 new companies, released on Friday: The next Who’s Who of UK Hospitality will feature 129 updated entries and 18 new companies when it is released to Premium Club members on Friday (24 January), at midday. The database now features 876 companies, and this month’s edition includes more than 237,000 words of content. The companies, listed in alphabetical order, will have their most recent results reported as well as broader information around Ebitda, plans and trading style available. The database merges Companies House information, interviews and other public information to provide an easy to reference and exhaustive guide to the sector. Premium Club members also receive access to five other databases: the Multi-Site Database, the New Openings Database, the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database and the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database. All Premium Clubs members will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events including Excellence in Pub Retail (May 2025) and discounts on specialist sector reports such as the Propel 500. Operators that are Premium Club members are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club members receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club members will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club members also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Revel Collective reports record Christmas driven by performance of Peach Pubs, overall sales hampered by uncertainty caused by restructuring plan and not recovered as quickly as anticipated: The Revel Collective has reported a record Christmas driven by the performance of its Peach Pubs division, but said its overall sales have been hampered by uncertainty caused by its restructuring plan and have not recovered as quickly as anticipated. The operator of 65 venues – trading predominantly under the Revolution, Revolución de Cuba and Peach Pubs brands – said group like-for-like sales for the four weeks from 7 December 2024 to 3 January 2025 were up 1.6%. It said pre-booked revenue, largely corporate Christmas bookings, achieved record levels over the festive period in its Revolution and Revolucion De Cuba brands and was 5.3% ahead of last year. Furthermore, 32 weekly food and drink sales records were broken across the group during the festive period, with Peach Pubs performing the best of its three main brands. However, the company said that while festive trading was robust, and its pubs have seen a strong first half performance compared to last year, sales in its bar brands during the early part of the financial year were hampered by the uncertainty caused by the delay to the completion of the Revolution Bars restructuring plan. “Although there has been some gradual improvement in sales in our Revolution brand, the late-night market continues to be challenging, and sales have not yet recovered as quickly as we had anticipated,” the company said. “Several planned initiatives are in place to boost profitable growth in the second half, as previously outlined as part of our restructuring plan. However, the changes announced in the budget are expected to fully offset these efforts in FY25. We estimate that the annual profit impact of the Budget announcements on the group is £4m. Lower sales in the first half and higher costs arising from the Budget, which will come into effect for the final quarter of the financial year, mean that the Board now expect the IAS 17 Ebitda outcome, driven by the level consumer sentiment, to be in the range of £2.0 to 4.0m. Net debt at 21 January 2025 is £14.4m (excluding the PIK tranche of £2.3m and excluding lease debt). We currently have headroom on our banking facilities, but we will continue to keep discretionary spend and capital investment under significant restriction for the rest of this financial year.” Chief executive Rob Pitcher added: “The 2024 festive trading period provided us with a fantastic opportunity to showcase what we do best and it was wonderful to see our guests enjoying the parties we hosted. I am particularly pleased with the strong performance in Peach and Founders & Co, which stood out in terms of sales growth. However, the younger guests in our bars continue to face challenges with the high cost of living. Additionally, the negative discourse surrounding the restructuring plan created uncertainty among our guests and team members. This uncertainty persisted well into FY25, leading to a weaker recovery than we had originally anticipated. We now look forward to a period which will see us implement several new sales initiatives, including launching the new brand proposition for our Revolution brand, just in time for our target guests to receive the 16.3% (18 to 20-year-olds) increase in national minimum wage. The newly elected Labour government’s recent Budget announcements, especially the reduction in the national insurance thresholds for employers, will have a very damaging impact on the group.  These measures are regressive and offer no clear pathway for economic growth within the hospitality sector. They also pose risks to the employment market. We strongly urge the government to reconsider this policy in particular and explore more balanced alternatives. I’d like to thank our teams for all their dedication and hard work in making the Christmas period such a wonderful experience for our guests.”

BrewDog founder – there ‘has never been a more difficult time to start a business in the UK’: BrewDog founder James Watt has said there “has never been a more difficult time to start a business in the UK”, blaming the chancellor’s Budget for making entrepreneurs struggle. It came as the Scottish businessman announced plans for a new reality show, with the largest cash prize in UK TV history. Watt is in search of entrepreneurs to take part in House Of Unicorns, where they will have the chance to win £2m to help grow their businesses, reports The Daily Mail. He will invest £1m of his own cash into the winning business, with another £1 from Founders Capital – Europe’s largest founder investor community. Founders, entrepreneurs and business leaders will be put through their paces over the course of six weeks to compete for the £2m prize. Watt said the plan for the show stemmed from frustrations over the current choice of business investment shows, such as Dragons’ Den and The Apprentice. He said: “I’ve always been so disillusioned and, frankly, fed up with the tired format of reality TV business shows relying on worn-out tropes and stale stereotypes of entrepreneurs for comedy value, which are well past their sell-by date.” He said he hopes to “double the amount” of UK unicorns (firms valued at £1bn or more) through the show. However, he believes Labour’s policies have made starting a new business harder in the UK. He added: “I think we partly wanted to do this because it’s never been a more difficult time to start a business in the UK. There are still an amazing batch of entrepreneurs and opportunities in the UK, but I think the environment at the minute does mean that some need that extra support to really grow to their full potential. I don’t think the autumn Budget was helpful, and we are seeing founders leaving to run businesses overseas, so I really hope we see the momentum shift soon.”

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