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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Mon 27th Jan 2025 - Update: Popeyes CEO on UK market, Britons turn backs on alcohol, Starbucks
UK’s booming fried chicken market can grow further, says Popeyes CEO: Britain’s seemingly insatiable appetite for fried chicken can spur further private equity interest in a sector ripe for “significant growth”, according to the UK chief executive of Popeyes. Investment in the fast-growing fried chicken sector ramped up last month as US investment group Sixth Street paid £400m to buy the UK arm of Wingstop. TDR Capital took control of Popeyes UK, which holds the UK and Ireland franchise of the US chicken chain, last year after initially injecting £50m in 2023. “The Wingstop value was a good marker for the value of chicken in this opportunity at the moment,” said Tom Crowley, Popeyes UK chief executive. “If you can show fast growth successfully, then certainly more private equities are interested,” he told the FT. Crowley said the industry had learned the lessons of previous over-expansion, when many brands got “super carried away” with a mindset of “push, push, push”. “Lessons need to be learned from overreaching store numbers,” he said, although the accessibility of quick service restaurants meant that “scale is more achievable” in this part of the market. Crowley said that Popeyes was “still in the hype phase”, with queues of people outside each store opening more than three years after it landed. The brand now has 65 sites in the UK. As well as Wingstop, it faces established players such as KFC, with nearly 1,000 outlets, as well as new entrants such as Dave’s Hot Chicken and Chick-fil-A. There is “lots of competition, of course, but the category is strong and there is room for significant growth”, Crowley said. It plans to open 350 sites by about 2031, with more than 45 restaurants, drive-throughs and takeaway hubs at rail stations expected to open this year to expand its reach to large cities such as Leeds and Bristol. It is targeting sales of more than £200m in 2025, up 70% year-on-year.

Premium Club members to receive updated Multi-Site Database with 3,313 operators and 32 new companies this week, videos from Restaurant Marketer & Innovator on Friday, 7 February: Premium Club members are to receive the updated Multi-Site Database on Friday (31 January), at midday. The next Propel Multi-Site Database provides details of 3,313 multi-site operators and is searchable in seven main segments. The database features, 968 (29%) operators from the casual dining sector, 790 (23%) pub and bar operators, 566 (17%) cafe bakery operators, 460 (14%) quick service restaurant operators, 271 (8%) hotel operators, 209 (6%) experiential leisure operators and 55 (2%) fine dining operators. The database is updated each month and this edition includes 33 new companies. New additions to the casual dining sector include Notto, the pasta bar concept from Michelin-starred London chef Phil Howard, Lebanese restaurant Beit El Zaytoun, and Bagatel, the international bistro brand. Premium Club members are also to be given access to the entire recording of the 2025 Restaurant Marketer & Innovator European Summit Conference. Members will be sent 26 separate video presentations, featuring more than 60 speakers on Friday, 7 February, at 9am. Premium Club members also receive access to five additional databases: the New Openings Database, the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who's Who of UK Hospitality. All Premium Clubs members will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events including Excellence in Pub Retail (May 2025) and discounts on specialist sector reports such as the Propel 500. Operators that are Premium Club members are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club members receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club members will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club members also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Britons turn backs on alcohol so they can toast better health: Nearly half of young people and one in every three of the middle-aged no longer drink alcohol – a result of health concerns, the growing Muslim population and “abstinence influencers” changing Britain’s relationship with booze. The Times reports that a survey of a representative sample of more than 2,000 adults found that 43% of 18-to-34 year olds and 32%of 35-to-54 year olds had given up drinking alcohol entirely while more than half of both age groups said they had reduced their consumption. The study reveals the extent to which Britons are reshaping their approach to drinking, with about half of all under- 55s saying that they had alcohol only on special occasions. Older people are the most resistant to drinking less, with only a quarter of over-55s having given up and only two in five having cut down. Most of those who do not drink or have reduced their consumption say that their principal motivation is their health, with many reporting that alcohol had a greater impact on their physical and mental wellbeing and their sleep as they got older. The desire to lose weight was the next most popular explanation given for cutting down on drinking. Another factor is the growing number of “abstinence influencers” appearing on social media platforms. A record 8.8 million people tried to go the length of January without drinking alcohol. The study found that younger people were the most likely to participate in “Dry January” and older people the least. The increasing popularity of abstinence is reducing the amount of alcohol sold while also increasing the volume of low and no-alcohol drinks that are bought. The latest figures from HM Revenue & Customs show that revenue from alcohol duty is on track to fall 5% this year, although higher rates of duty on wine could also be a factor driving down the tax take.

Recession fears grow as companies prepare to ramp up staff cuts: Fears of a recession are growing as business chiefs warned they will be forced to ramp up job cuts as Rachel Reeves’s tax raid hits growth. Bosses in the private sector said they expected a “significant fall” in activity over the next three months, according to a survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The Telegraph reports that businesses across all main sectors including manufacturing, services and retail forecast a decline in January, having fallen over the previous three-month period, it said. Companies are now cutting staff, moving jobs overseas and curbing investment as they battle to cut costs and offset the impact of the Chancellor’s looming tax changes, the CBI warned. Alpesh Paleja, an economist at the CBI, said: “After a grim lead-up to Christmas, the New Year hasn’t brought any sense of renewal. There is an urgent need to get momentum back into the economy. The government can help shift the UK’s economic narrative with more determined focus on measures that could drive growth.” The figures will pile further pressure on the chancellor as she prepares to give a major speech on Wednesday where she will unveil new reforms aimed at boosting Britain’s growth prospects. There are concerns that the UK is already in recession after official figures published earlier this month showed growth flatlined in November after contracting in both September and October. Meanwhile, disappointing retail sales in December have pushed analysts to warn of a “growing risk” that the economy contracted at the end of last year.

Bottle deposit plan moves a step closer: Labour has pledged to end the “throwaway society” as laws paving the way for a bottle-return scheme come into force today. The European-style initiative will lead to customers being charged a deposit when buying a drink in a plastic, steel or aluminium container, which is paid back when they hand it in for recycling at a collection point. The government has looked to learn from Sweden, Ireland and other countries that already have a deposit return scheme (DRS). Germany’s has an estimated 98% return rate. Mary Creagh, the minister for nature, told The Times: “This government will clean up Britain and end the throwaway society.” She said that “turning trash into cash” would also mean “kickstarting clean growth, ensuring economic stability, more resilient supply chains and new green jobs”. New parliamentary regulations allow the appointment in April of a body to manage the scheme, due to launch in England and Northern Ireland in October 2027. Scotland is expected to align its own scheme to match Westminster’s, but Wales has vowed to include glass too. Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, said the deposit scheme “will just be another burden on businesses, costing billions and hitting families with higher grocery bills”.

Starbucks is training its baristas to de-escalate conflict after taking away popular perk: Starbucks is training staff how to de-escalate conflict after taking away a popular customer perk, and even installing ‘panic buttons’ in some shops. Earlier this month, the coffee chain announced that customers will have to make a purchase to enjoy its spaces, including restrooms. The shift marked the end of a seven-year experiment in open-door inclusivity, which allowed Americans to visit locations without buying anything. In preparation for any anger or conflict that could arise from this, Starbucks is conducting three-hour training sessions for employees.  A set of documents from the barista training tells workers that they should ‘leverage de-escalation tactics’ if regular customers refuse to comply with the new rules, Business Insider reported. And some coffee shops even have a ‘panic button’ to help workers ahead of a potential increase in altercations with customers. According to Business Insider, staff training featured specific scenarios including what to do if a regular customer sits in-store for a “prolonged” amount of time without buying anything, or asks to fill up a water bottle without making a purchase.

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