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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Thu 27th Feb 2025 - Update: Shaftesbury FY, new Time Out Market site, revival of shopping centres
Shaftesbury – West End estates continue to be “busy and vibrant”: Central London landlord Shaftesbury has reported that its West End estates continue to be “busy and vibrant” and that footfall is high, with continued customer sales growth, limited vacancy and a strong leasing pipeline. The company said that during 2024, 473 leasing transactions were concluded with a combined rental value of £48.7m, including 175 commercial lettings and renewals: £37.5m, 10.7% ahead of 31 December 2023 ERV and 17.8% ahead of previous passing rents. The company said it had been an active year for food and beverage leasing with 39 leasing transactions completed, 14.8% ahead of December 2023 ERV. In 2024, its West End portfolio welcomed 24 new offerings, ranging from independent to international operators. It said: “As is typical, there have been a small number of failures during the year, however ongoing leasing demand has resulted in the available space being filled quickly. Availability of restaurant and leisure space is very limited given the vibrancy of these locations together with constrained planning and licensing policies. There is particularly positive performance from our Soho food & beverage portfolio. Kingly Court continues to attract interest from multiple food and beverage operators. The team behind renowned Soho concept, Blanchette, have launched Goldies, their latest concept in Kingly Court. Mediterranean concept Alta has signed following the redevelopment of units across two floors, creating a larger destination dining opportunity. Kingly Street has bolstered its evening offer, with the openings of The Counter and The Little Violet Door joining food & beverage concept Two Floors which has expanded its presence following refurbishment.” Ian Hawksworth, chief executive, said: “We are delighted to deliver a strong set of results for 2024. Our West End estates continue to be busy and vibrant with high footfall and customer sales growth. There continues to be strong leasing demand with 473 transactions completed 9% ahead of December 2023 ERV, with an excellent leasing pipeline. Valuation has increased 4.5% driven by strong ERV growth. The momentum of 2024 has continued into the current year. With our strong balance sheet, we are well-positioned to capitalise on market opportunities and confident of delivering further growth as the leading central London mixed-use REIT.” The company said it was confident in the growth prospects of its West End portfolio. It said: “Despite the well-documented macro-economic uncertainty, the West End continues to perform. Footfall is high, with continued customer sales growth, limited vacancy and a strong leasing pipeline. We have delivered growth in cash rents, ERV and valuation, and we expect continued performance with our rents and valuation well underpinned and are positioned for further growth. Prime central London real estate continues to attract capital, and we see opportunities for investment and expansion within and alongside our portfolio. Shaftesbury Capital has a strong balance sheet and significant liquidity to take advantage of market opportunities. The quality of our portfolio, our active approach and the positive market fundamentals of the West End give us confidence in our target of 5 to 7% rental growth, which with stable yields, would deliver total accounting returns of 8 to 10% over the medium-term.”

Premium Club subscribers to receive updated Multi-Site Database with 3,335 operators and 24 new companies on Friday:Premium Club subscribers are to receive the updated Multi-Site Database on Friday (28 February). The next Propel Multi-Site Database provides details of 3,335 multi-site operators and is searchable in seven main segments. The database features 972 (29%) operators from the casual dining sector, 790 (24%) pub and bar operators, 569 (17%) cafe bakery operators, 466 (14%) quick service restaurant operators, 273 (8%) hotel operators, 210 (6%) experiential leisure operators and 55 (2%) fine dining operators. It is updated each month, and this edition includes 24 new companies. New additions in the experiential leisure sector include the Scottish family entertainment group, Wonderworld, with its soft play sites, and Treetop Golf with six locations offering an immersive mini-golf concept. Premium Club subscribers also receive access to five additional databases: the New Openings Database, the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who's Who of UK Hospitality. All Premium Clubs subscribers will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events including Excellence in Pub Retail (May 2025) and discounts on specialist sector reports such as the International Brands report. Operators that are Premium Club subscribers are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club subscribers receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club subscribers will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club subscribers also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Time Out to open second New York market: Time Out Group, the global media and hospitality business, has entered into a lease agreement with Zero Irving to open a new Time Out Market at New York City’s Union Square with an expected opening date in autumn 2025. In addition to ten Markets already open, the company said this new agreement increases its pipeline of sites under development to seven Markets set to open between 2025 and 2027, with more in negotiations. This new Time Out Market will be located in the central Union Square neighbourhood of Manhattan on the ground floor of Zero Irving, a ‘ground up’ fully-leased 21-story Class A office building, designed as an innovation and technology hub as part of a joint venture of affiliates of RAL Companies and JRE Partners. This will be the company’s second food and cultural market in New York, following its flagship site which opened in 2019 in Brooklyn’s Dumbo neighbourhood. Time Out Market New York, Union Square will offer across 10,000 sq ft a curated mix of the city’s top and up-and-coming culinary talents, all under one roof. There will be seven kitchens, a bar, a stage for cultural experiences and approximately 300 seats with around 70 of them on the terrace. Chris Ohlund, chief executive of Time Out Group, said: “Our medium target is 40 to 50 Market sites in top cities around the world – this will not only enable us to generate substantial revenue growth, these Markets also offer the opportunity to become another big media channel for Time Out which currently has a global monthly brand reach of 184 million. As one of our focus areas are smaller sites in top cities, we are looking forward to opening in just a few months time our second Market in New York – this demonstrates our ability to accelerate our opening pace and the potential significant revenue synergies with our Time Out Media business.”

Shopping centres are making a comeback as online suffers: Shopping centres are falling back into favour with retailers in part because selling goods online is getting more expensive, the boss of one of Britain’s biggest mall owners said. Fifteen years ago online retailing was noticeably cheaper than running a physical store, but after a rapid decline in shop rents – and an increase in warehouse costs – that gap has narrowed. Rita-Rose Gagné, chief executive of Hammerson, which owns the Bullring in Birmingham and Cabot Circus in Bristol, estimates that Hammerson’s rents are down by almost a third from their peak in 2018, which has improved the economics of running a bricks-and-mortar store. “Years ago, [shopping centre] rents were higher but they’ve been rebased and are more affordable, [whereas] online operations are now extremely costly,” Gagné told The Times. As well as lower costs, Gagné said that retailers were also “now understanding the reality that 80% of transactions occur in a physical store” and that they wanted their stores to be in city centres, which were more “operationally efficient” because of the size of their catchments. On the back of those tailwinds, Hammerson enjoyed a record year of leasing in 2024, signing leases for 262 units that brought in £41 million of rent a year. That was 56% cent more than what Hammerson was getting from those units previously. The company has invested millions repurposing a number of former department stores, which would have been leased to “anchor tenants” such as House of Fraser or Debenhams on cheap deals. At the Bullring, it reconfigured the empty former Debenhams store and filled it with a Marks & Spencer and Toca Social, an interactive football bar, last summer.

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