Foodservice price inflation continues to ease but global uncertainties loom: Foodservice price inflation decelerated year-on-year for the 19th consecutive month in January 2025, according to the latest CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index. Monthly inflation in the total basket of items measured by the index stood at 1.8%, while month-on-month inflation was flat at 0.0%. However, significant global economic and political uncertainties may threaten the stability of prices in the months ahead, the index warned. Of the index’s ten categories, only fish recorded year-on-year deflation and just three delivered month-on-month deflation. Beef prices have continued to surge to record levels, driven by projections of strong demand and lower production in 2025. There are some pockets of relief, including the start of a decrease in olive oil prices after record highs in recent years. Other persisting pressures on global commodity markets are likely to impact food and drink prices. Notably, aluminium prices have surged 17.9% over the six months to January 2025, following increased demand from China, rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions and escalating fears of a global trade war. The recent imposition of a 25% US import tariff on aluminium adds further uncertainty. While it remains too early to fully assess the tariff's impact, it has the potential to disrupt global supply chains and create further price volatility, with unpredictable knock-on consequences for the foodservice sector. Crude oil prices also saw a substantial 11.4% month-on-month increase, driven by geopolitical tensions, delays in OPEC+ production increases and heightened demand. Natural gas prices also continued their upward trend, rising 4.7% month-on-month. Shaun Allen, chief executive of Prestige Purchasing said: “While the overall index indicates a continued low level of inflation, the pressure on some key commodities such as beef, energy and crude oil together with the pending cost impacts from the national minimum wage increases and national insurance contribution changes are likely to see inflation rise up again over the coming months.” Reuben Pullan, senior insight consultant at CGA by NIQ, said: “While there are positive signs, the outlook for hospitality remains cautious given the ongoing global trade tensions and rising costs. With other costs like labour and energy rising and many consumers still hesitant about spending, the trading environment will be difficult for some time to come.”

UKHospitality urges chancellor to urgently delay changes to employers’ NIC threshold ahead of spring statement: UKHospitality has urged chancellor Rachel Reeves to urgently delay the changes to the employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) threshold ahead of the spring statement. Reeves will give an update on her plans for the UK economy on Wednesday, 26 March, at a time when hospitality business confidence has plunged to its lowest level in two years. With sector businesses about to be hit by £3.4bn in additional annual costs from April, only 14% of businesses feel optimistic about the hospitality market, according to a recent survey from CGA by NIQ. UKHospitality said the forthcoming changes to the employers’ NICs threshold alone will cost the sector an additional £1bn per year and bring 774,000 hospitality team members – 20% of the sector’s workforce – into the threshold for the first time. The trade body also called for the government’s business rates reform to provide the maximum possible discount to hospitality businesses – aligned with its intention to level the playing field for the high street – and for large hospitality businesses to be exempted from the surcharge. UKHospitality’s other asks of the government include promised reforms to the apprenticeship levy to be brought forward, for hospitality to be included in the first wave of foundation apprenticeships, and the creation of a hospitality growth strategy and action plan. “Hospitality is facing a crisis of confidence like we haven’t seen since we were in a full-blown energy crisis and inflation was running at more than 10%,” said UKHospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls. “The enormity of the cocktail of costs being simultaneously imposed upon venues is unprecedented and, for many, completely unsustainable. It will simply force businesses to cut jobs, freeze recruitment, cancel planned investment, reduce trading hours and, in the worst-case scenario, close for good. At a time when we have seen how hospitality can drive economic growth, as it has done in the past two months, we are urging the chancellor to act swiftly. Delaying the changes to the employers’ NICs threshold will prevent much of this hardship and allow hospitality to continue on a path to growth.”