Hospitality market stability under threat from new costs with 20 net closures per week in first quarter of 2025: Britain’s pub, restaurant and hotel market has achieved marginal growth in outlets over the last 12 months, the new Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA by NIQ and AlixPartners shows – but significant new costs may now jeopardise stability. The report indicates a total of 98,866 sites operating in March 2025 – 0.1% more than 12 months ago. However, the latest quarter (January to March 2025) saw numbers fall 0.3%, from the end of 2024, which is equivalent to 20 net closures per week. The contraction in the number of licensed venues reflects concerns among operators and investors about soft consumer confidence, weak sales growth in pubs, bars and restaurants and the general economic outlook, as well as the burden of increased employers’ national insurance contributions and national minimum wage from April. There has been greater solidity on the managed side of hospitality than in the independent sector, with the two gaining and losing 0.3% of sites respectively in the first quarter of 2025. There has been similar churn in venue types, as food-led licensed premises shrank 1.1% while drink-led ones grew 0.3%. The monitor also showed there are now 2.8% more bars powered by competitive socialising concepts than in March 2020 – the only segment to have grown in size since the start of the covid-19 pandemic. The “themed bars” segment of CGA’s outlet data – into which dedicated competitive socialising venues fall – has grown 24.3% in the last 12 months, and is now nearly treble the size it was in March 2020. Karl Chessell, CGA by NIQ’s director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA, said: “There are encouraging pockets of vibrancy, and we can be optimistic that spending may pick up later in the year, but it is likely to be a difficult second quarter for businesses that have already been weakened by sustained high inflation.” Graeme Smith, a senior partner at AlixPartners, said: “In the context of what has happened to market site numbers in the recent past, the last 12 months represent a period of relative calm and stability. However, this belies a sense that the market is on the cusp of further, possibly accelerated, change. Consolidation-driven M&A, refinancings and restructurings are likely to play a role in helping operators unlock a profitable path, and while closures feel inevitable, it is also a time when the strongest – those thriving hospitality brands and businesses, of which there remains many – will get stronger. And they will emerge in prime position to best access the market opportunities that will inevitably arise in the next 12 months. This data also shows how important it is to look at the facts and not just the perceptions. Following recent commentary, it would have been easy to assume that the UK consumer had stopped going out and the night-time economy was dead. However, the data shows that while tastes might be changing, the UK consumer still wants to go out and socialise, with bar numbers increasing by more than 7% compared with a year ago – the highest growth of all categories.” UKHospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls said: “The loss of 20 venues a week so far this year shows the real-life impact of the increasing cost burden on hospitality. These are livelihoods, jobs and cherished community venues that have been lost for good, and that is hugely damaging to our economy, society, culture and well-being.”