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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 30th Apr 2025 - Update: Greene King, Young's and Starbucks
Greene King revenue up 3.2% in year of transition: Greene King saw revenue increase 3.2% to £2.45bn in the 12 months to 29 December 2024, with all four divisions experiencing growth, in what it said was a year of transition as it shifted its focus from business transformation to “delivery and began leveraging our industry leading investment programme”. The circa 2,600-strong business said its full-year performance was driven by record Christmas bookings and strong demand from events such as the 2024 men’s Euros. The Nick Mackenzie-led business said it had grown ahead of the market and achieved its best-ever online review ratings of 4.5 (out of five) for the year. The group reported a 6.4% increase in adjusted operating profit to £198.0m (prior period: £186.1m) driven by tight control of costs to mitigate industry headwinds, with profitability as in prior years positively impacted by exceptional investment levels. The group said its numbers were negatively impacted by the uncertain outlook for the hospitality industry compounded by the government’s autumn Budget, which contributed to non-cash goodwill and property accounting impairments of £208.5m, which resulted in a statutory operating loss of £16.4m and a statutory loss before tax of £147.1m (prior period: £45.2m profit). Against the challenging macroeconomic backdrop and following the delivery of four years of business and cultural transformation, including industry-leading levels of investment in the estate, Greene King said it is now “sharply focused on delivery”. Capex reduced in the year to £172.7m (prior period: £194.8m), reflecting the move to leverage prior years investments, but will remain higher in future periods than the historic run rate. The group also undertook a reorganisation including the introduction of a smaller executive board structure and a restructuring of central support functions, the benefits of which it said will be realised across future periods. Last year, Greene King announced plans for a new £40m custom-built brewery in Bury St Edmunds, with planning permission granted in January 2025 and expected to be operational in 2027. Throughout 2024, the rollout of Hickory’s restaurants continued, and its Pub Partners division performed strongly, with franchised concepts Hive and Nest adding 14 and ten sites respectively. The company said the benefits of a multimillion-pound digital investment are coming to fruition, as reflected by a record Christmas bookings performance. Mackenzie said: “2024 was a year of transition for Greene King as we shifted our focus from business transformation to delivery and began leveraging our industry leading investment programme. Pleasingly, we delivered top-line revenue growth and have grown ahead of the market. While our tight control of costs meant we also delivered an increase in adjusted operating profit, our statutory results were impacted by the outlook for the industry, which was compounded by decisions made in the government’s Budget which have dramatically increased our costs. While we maintain our focus on creating an agile business with a tight grip on what is within our control, the industry continues to face a layering of costs that is changing the fundamental economics of the pub. We would encourage the government to urgently introduce the promised business rates reform, reduce regulation and the cost of doing business to ensure that our critical sector is protected, and pubs remain at the heart of communities UK-wide. I want to thank our team members and pub partners who have remained tenacious and dedicated amidst what continues to be a very challenging time for our industry. As we move into a new phase, leveraging the investment of recent years, we will continue to invest with a focus on our people, being customer-first and brand-led and on further enhancing the digital experience. We remain confident in our brands, our people and our ability to deliver for our loyal customers.” The company said that the composition of the group’s reporting segments changed at the start of FY25 which will mean its Partnerships & Ventures arm will no longer be a stand-alone division, and the group will move from four divisions to three: Greene King pubs; Destination Brands and Ventures; and Brewing and Brands. The company said the new structure will “simplify and strengthen the business and support the group’s long-term plans”. The group said its 878-strong Greene King pubs managed division saw adjusted operating profit increase by 11.5% year-on-year to £135.7m, due to strong like-for-like sales in 2024 driven by price and effective cost control. Greene King said: “Our performance was particularly positive in the year, consistently outperforming the market. Statutory operating profit decreased by 9.3%, which has been driven by the increase in property, plant and equipment and right of use asset impairment.” Across its 580-strong Destination Brands section, which includes Hungry Horse, Chef & Brewer, Farmhouse Inns, and Flaming Grill, it reported total revenue of £799.2m, up 1.5% versus FY23, with like-for-like sales strong, and all brands in growth. It said: “Like-for-like food sales out-performed drink, with both food and drink sales in growth but led by price increases, with the underlying market remaining challenging throughout the year. Despite the challenging market, accommodation sales held up and were also in growth.” Across its Partnerships & Ventures division, which incorporates more than 1,100 pubs, restaurants and hotels, revenues stood at £447.0m (2023: £420.9m) and adjusted Ebitda at £112.2m (2023: £106m). The division made an adjusted operating profit of £83.2m, which was 6.3% ahead of last year. The company said the increase in profit versus the prior year “primary reflects the continued investment in Hickory’s and franchise pubs”. 

Premium Club subscribers to receive new searchable and segmented New Openings Database on Friday: The next Propel New Openings Database will be sent to Premium Club subscribers on Friday (2 May). The database will show the details of 154 site openings, including which company has opened a site or its plans to open one in the future. The database will have details on what type of site it is and its location, and there will also be a website link to the businesses. The database is published on a monthly basis and Premium Club subscribers will also receive a 9,493-word report on the 154 new additions to the database. The database is segmented into seven categories – cafe bakery, casual dining, experiential leisure, fine dining, hotels, pubs and bars, and quick service restaurants – making it even easier for users to search. The database includes new openings in the cafe bakery sector such as by Coffee#1, the Nero Group-owned business, the first airport site in Ireland from Pret A Manger, and Medicine, the Midlands artisan bakery concept. Premium Club subscribers also receive access to five other databases: the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the Multi-Site Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who’s Who of UK Hospitality. All Premium Club subscribers will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events including Excellence in Pub Retail (May 2025) and discounts on specialist sector reports such as the International Brands report. Operators that are Premium Club subscribers are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club subscribers receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club subscribers will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club subscribers also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Greene King CEO – layering on of costs is starting to change the economics of the business, tax increases will cost nearly £50m a year: Nick Mackenzie, chief executive of Greene King, has told Propel the business is well-placed to mitigate the ongoing macroeconomic challenges the sector continues to face but the layering on of costs is “starting to change the economics of the business”. He said the company was having to make “tough decisions” on hiring and pricing in response to rising employment costs and estimates the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions, which took effect on 6 April, will cost the company around an extra £24m a year, while changes to the national minimum wage on top “probably doubles it”. Mackenzie said the sector has been impacted by a “disproportionate amount of rates for many, many years” and pushed ministers to work with the sector on reforming the system “to make it real and meaningful in terms of what they [government] are going to deliver in 2026”. He said: “Greene King will continue to focus on what is within its control, creating a sustainable, well-invested and technology-first business focused on customers, which is well-placed to mitigate the ongoing macroeconomic challenges the sector continues to face, to drive gain in both market share and customer spend. Outlook wise, as an industry, we are going to continue to face challenges. They are well documented around costs, and that layering on of costs is something that I think is starting to change the economics of the business and the way we think about the business. And I think whether you’re big or small, that is the case. We’re looking at how we drive things that we can control, whether that’s operational efficiency, whether that’s using technology to drive out cost in the business, whether that’s all structures or the way we operate centrally. I think efficiency is probably the watchword that a lot of businesses are going to be talking about over the next few years, and particularly how you use technology to support that, and that is something we’re very focused on. The underlying performance is robust, but there are lots of cost challenges that we now have to face in to and deal with. Our whole strategy is based around creating a sustainable, long-term business that’s well invested, that has technology at the centre of it, and is customer focused. I think as a business, we’re well placed to do that and to gain both market share and spend from our customers, and that’s what we’re focused on, and we’re using all the tools that we have at our disposal to do that.” Mackenzie said the trend for event-led demand was continuing. He said: “People are still coming out, and people want to enjoy themselves and want to spend money, but they need a great experience and a really good reason to come out and it’s about, how do you maximise that? When the sun comes out, it’s also been really strong, So I’m confident people still want to come to pubs. I think it’s just about how we now adapt to make sure we grow market share and how we push the investments that we have put across, whether that’s in our new brewery coming down the line, whether that’s in the existing estate, whether that’s the roll outs of Hickory’s and our franchise business. But it also some of the stuff that doesn’t get seen necessarily day to day, the investments in our people infrastructure, the investments in our data and digital infrastructure, the app, customer engagement platforms, all that stuff we’ve been working on over the last two or three years is now starting to build in, and we’re starting to hopefully see the returns on that. And I think the booking platform that we now have across the business definitely worked for us during Christmas when bookings were really important, and we had record bookings over that period. During the course of the trading year, you’re always going to have ups and downs in different parts of the businesses. And I think that’s why having quite a broader estate and having a balanced portfolio is quite important. If you had spoken to me two years ago, our urban and London businesses were the ones that I would have been most worried about. But now those businesses have, during the course of last year and into this year, been performing really well. We’ve launched a new people system across the whole business, which is a major investment for the business, which we announced during the course of the week, which is about to go live. You have to do that, because if you just focus on one area, another area is going to move and we are very focused in terms of the way we’re structured now, to make sure that we gain benefit across the whole business from efficiency, from technology, and from the way we drive synergies from a scale business.” He said that people going home earlier was a growing trend. He added: “It varies depending on whether you are a late-night operator or whether you are country dining, but I think it’s pretty clear, and we talk about it a lot internally. That being said, I think if you create good reasons for people to come, whether that’s sport, and again, our focus is heavily on sporting occasions, about creating an amazing atmosphere for sport, but people will come out when that happens. How do you create reasons for people to be in the pub later and longer? That’s a job the industry’s got to do.” On current trading, Mackenzie said: “We had such a difficult period of weather in the lead up to April, so when the weather came good people were like I just want to get out into gardens and that definitely showed up for us. We had a very strong trading period during that good weather. Easter probably wasn’t as strong on the back of that. I think maybe people came out and had quite a good time leading into Easter. Easter was okay, but wasn’t anything special. We’ve got a good week coming up, but again, I think this goes back to the point about people love coming to the pub, and they love coming to socialise, and they love doing it around an occasion. And I think weather is part of that occasion now.” 
 
Young’s reports managed full-year like-for-like sales up 5.7%, current trading ‘encouraging’: Young’s has reported total managed revenue, which includes both Young’s and City Pubs, for the year ending 31 March 2025 were up 25.4%, and like-for-like sales up 5.7%. The company said the positive momentum reported in January has continued, and in the 13-week period ending 31 March 2025, like-for like sales were up 7.7%, and total managed revenue increased 16.2%. As a result, trading for the full year was in line with expectations. Young’s stated: “This strong performance, which has been delivered against widespread challenges facing the sector is testament to Young’s proven strategy and its commitment to continuous investment in its premium estate. While mindful of ongoing headwinds impacting the sector, this performance, coupled with encouraging trading since the start of the new financial year and Young’s ongoing focus on operating a premium and well invested estate, gives confidence in performance for the year ahead.” Chief executive Simon Dodd said: “We achieved a huge amount during the past financial year, and I am extremely pleased with this performance. We delivered it against a challenging backdrop, which was characterised by unpredictable British weather and prolonged economic uncertainty driven by political turbulence through the year. Our performance demonstrates the strength and resilience of our premium estate, coupled with the work of our phenomenal teams. Together, these factors have enabled our business to continue to thrive and we remain confident in our ability to deliver profitable growth.”
 
Starbucks sales remain sluggish but CEO buoyant over turnaround progress: Starbucks posted a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly global comparable sales, as demand remained sluggish for its coffee in the United States amid rising economic uncertainty. The company posted a like-for-like sales decline of 1% for the second quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of a 0.3% fall. Net revenue increased 2% to $8.8bn, in line with analyst estimates. However, net income fell 50% to $384.2m as the business faced costs related to the turnaround strategy. Brian Niccol, Starbucks’ chief executive, said: “Our financial results don’t yet reflect our progress, but we have real momentum with our ‘Back to Starbucks’ plan. We’re testing and learning at speed and we’re seeing changes in our coffee houses.” Niccol, who was hired last year from Chipotle, where he was credited with reviving the fortunes of the burrito brand, has sought to revive sales by steering the company to its coffee house roots. He has rolled out a simpler menu, introducing free refills and made efforts to reduce waiting times at the counter to less than four minutes. However, his efforts face an increasingly cautious consumer dealing with the fallout of president Trump’s trade policy. Prior to Niccol’s arrival, Starbucks had been accused of prioritising sales volumes over the in-store experience that was once central to its appeal. The brand lost customers amid boycotts, price rises and slow service. The decline in like-for-like sales slowed from the prior two quarters, when they fell 4% and 7% respectively. North America like-for-like sales fell 1%, compared with estimates of a 0.2% fall.. Starbucks has also struggled with weak demand in China, its second-largest market as cheaper local alternatives chip away its market. Sales in Greater China were flat following four straight quarters of decline. International comparable sales rose 2%, compared with estimates of a 1.1% drop. Starbucks’ shares fell $1.10, or 1.3%, to $83.75 in after-hours trading.

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