I had the pleasure of presenting at this year’s Restaurant Marketer & Innovator European Conference (RMI). My topic, unusually, was about people not eating and drinking rather than my usual focus on people who are. I focused in on GLP-1 drugs and the effect that their increased usage will have on hospitality, using data and insight from KAM’s recent GLP-1 report, available on the KAM knowledge hub.

Spoiler alert: if you think GLP-1 drugs are “someone else’s problem” – Silicon Valley biohackers, Hollywood actors, or that annoyingly smug friend who now “just isn’t hungry” – bad news, they’re already your customer. But how long will they remain your customer if we don’t cater for what they need and want from pubs, bars and restaurants.

GLP-1s (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro et al) were designed for Type 2 diabetes but have very enthusiastically pivoted into weight loss. They slow digestion, shrink appetite, keep blood sugar stable and generally turn food from “event” into “fuel”. Weekly injections for now, pills incoming. That means this is not a fad, and it’s only going to get easier to participate.

And the current scale already matters – 4%-7% of UK adults are already using GLP-1s for weight loss, which translates to 2.1 million-3.7 million people. Usage has doubled year-on-year. For context, that’s more than the number of vegans (3%), vegetarians (7%) or people with a wheat allergy (1%-4%), and look at the changes we’ve made in recent years to make sure those people have a great customer experience! 

From the conversations I had after my presentation, there are many misconceptions about the drugs and who’s using them – not least because many people prefer to fly under the radar. This isn’t just women, and it’s not just under-30s. Men and women are broadly even (although women are driving growth), it spans all ages up to around 60, it’s nationwide and it skews towards those with a higher income – probably because they are available to purchase as well as be prescribed. Most access the drugs privately online, meaning they’re motivated, self-directed and not waiting for permission.

And now for the uncomfortable bit: 32% of GLP-1 users say they’re eating and drinking out less often, and 57% say they now only go out for special occasions. The grocery sector has already taken a £136m hit in food and drink spending, so hospitality is not uniquely targeted, but it’s definitely in the blast radius.

Alcohol also takes a knock; 23% of users say they drink less alcohol when out. So, if your margin strategy relies heavily on “another bottle of Savvy-B?” you might need another strategy.

But here’s the opportunity bit. GLP-1 users are far more likely than non-users to actively choose venues based on:

• Healthy or lighter menu options

• Menus that cater for specific dietary needs

• The ability to customise (portion sizes, swaps, lighter versions, adding nutritional value)

• Transparency about ingredients and sourcing

In fact, 65% say GLP-1s have changed what they eat when they’re out, and 77% say their food preferences influence venue choice for the entire group. One person on a jab now dictates where six people eat. Just like we see with tee-totallers and vegan/vegetarians.

They’re also doing something hospitality customers famously don’t always do: checking nutritional information before ordering. They think about health when choosing and are happy to pay a premium for food and drink that feels functional, lighter or “worth it”. Budgets aren’t changing but value for money definitions are.

Remember that GLP-1 users aren’t asking for sad salads and a glass of tap water. They want:

• High-protein options

• Smaller portions

• More plant-based dishes

• Lighter meals

• Alcohol-free or lower-alcohol drinks, specifically with less carbonation

• Functional ingredients (think probiotics, adaptogens etc)

And crucially, they want choice, not restriction. Smaller plates, half portions, “mini” versions, shareable mains. US operators are already doing it: 200g steaks instead of 350g, pre-sliced steak plates for sharing, mini burgers, mini burritos and skinny desserts. 

And a final note of caution from me – KAM’s GLP-1 study shows us that 24% of UK adults say they’re likely or very likely to consider GLP-1 drugs in future. That’s not a niche trend – that’s a new behavioural normal.

So no, this doesn’t mean the end of hospitality. It does mean the end of thinking that everyone wants a massive plate, three sides and a bottle of wine by default. And it means we need to get even closer to our customers to understand what they want from their visit to a pub, bar or restaurant.

Please get in contact at katy@kaminsight.com if you’d like a copy of my RMI presentation with all the associated KAM insight – remember that knowledge really is power!

For many people, wine bars still no doubt conjure up images of candle-lit basements with wooden wine crates scattered around the room, and Gallic imagery likely to adorn the walls, along with wine lists that are indecipherable to the majority of drinkers.

 

Many still exist, but in reality, things have been changing dramatically over the years, and more contemporary offerings have injected new energy into the category. The décor and image of wine bars have been well and truly overhauled. The City of London is an obvious example of how things have changed. 

 

For more than 400 years, the big triumvirate of Davy’s, El Vino and Balls Brothers carved out a profitable niche that largely remained intact and unchanged over these multiple centuries. But over a period of a couple of decades from the late 1980s, the world of wine bars changed on the back of reduced drinking, the increased demand for food and the desire of people to drink in brighter, less cave-like environments. These three big beasts of wine in the City either collapsed or shrunk dramatically.

 

Such changes have been reflected across the wine bar category today – in the City and beyond. We’ve seen the emergence of an array of new businesses including Veeno, Humble Grape, 28-50, Vagabond and Vinoteca. They have sought to deliver a more modern take on the wine bar for younger drinkers. But it has been tough, as seen by the failures of Veeno and Vinoteca, which are now under new ownerships. 

 

What has arguably remained one of the issues with wine is its sheer complexity. I undertook the excellent Wine & Spirit Education Trust courses up to Level 3 (I would highly recommend them), which suggests a decent bit of knowledge, but I would be the first to admit that I have merely scratched the surface.

 

Overcoming this knowledge deficit has undoubtedly been a challenge for the wine industry, and is maybe one of the reasons the category is over-skewed to older drinkers who have built up more experience with their vino. They have greater confidence among the many grape varieties, regions, appellations and other arcane language that inhabits the wine world and inhibits its embrace by a broader swath of drinkers.

 

While this represents a challenge for wine bars, it is also an opportunity that more operators are grasping – offering wine experiences. Any wine bar worth its salty Albariño and Assyrtiko is now offering tastings that are a hybrid entertainment/education.

 

Whether it be comparing regions or countries, grape varieties or price-points, there are myriad options of getting different wines into people’s hands that serves the dual purpose of delivering a platform for having a fun night out and learning. Wine bars can very easily satisfy the increased appetite for experiences when people spend an evening out.

 

Certainly, for Vagabond and Humble Grape, the more experience-based model is serving them well as both are on the expansion trail. The latter has opened a seventh site in the capital, while Vagabond has recently opened the doors on a large site in the City. Its sites have the secret weapon of Enomatic wine storing machines that enable customers to sample various sized pours from bottles – including tiny samples – held within the devices. 

 

With 110 bottles held in the Enomatic machines at the Vagabond in St Paul’s, there is the opportunity for drinkers to experience an array of wines for modest outlay. It’s a truly great way to try lots of wines and learn what you like.

 

Since Majestic Wine bought the business, it has injected life – and plenty of money – into the brand that reached a crescendo with the opening of its impressive urban winery at Canada Water in late 2025. This is a full-on wine experience involving production on-site – thereby providing the opportunity for tours and tastings – along with a multi-level wine bar, of course. 

 

The idea of this major investment is that it will tap into the growth in wine tourism and will contribute to attracting wine drinkers to London – and beyond too – to one of the growing number of English vineyards with tasting rooms and restaurants.

 

At heart, the Canada Water Vagabond is arguably just a turbo-powered wine bar, but that is exactly what the industry needs. Bringing greater hospitality experiences to customers is what will continue to determine the winners and losers in the category.

All the investments we are currently making in London are projects that were agreed quite some time ago. We are not actively looking to make new investments into London. We are not comfortable with the marketplace here, and we are certainly not comfortable with the government’s current economic policies. The recent changes to business rates, particularly the decision to ring-fence relief solely for pubs, are incredibly unfair. Support should apply to the whole hospitality sector and retail too; this has been argued for a very long time.

The reason pubs have been protected is because they organised, applied pressure and even went as far as banning Labour MPs from visiting. Hospitality more broadly has not done that, but it is now being discussed among industry leaders and large brands to ban Labour MPs from restaurants and cafés as well. This is yet another example of an inept government with no real plan, long-term strategy or genuine understanding of how our industry actually works. 

 

Business rates are not a side issue for hospitality, they are existential. They are a fixed, non-negotiable cost layered on top of rising rents, increasing food costs, higher energy bills and sustained pressure on wages. For an industry that already operates on some of the tightest margins in the economy, this approach doesn’t just make growth difficult, it actively discourages it, particularly when compared with the advantages afforded to the digital economy and online retailers. Add to this increasing crime in Central London, foreign investors no longer feeling welcome and an investment and entrepreneurial landscape that is shrinking as people leave in the face of a 50% tax rate.

It sends a clear message that hospitality is not being taken seriously as a major economic force, contributing around 10% of UK GDP; nor as the cultural force that it is, despite employing millions of people and playing a critical role in the UK’s international reputation. As we have all experienced over the past 12 to 18 months, margins have become so tight that businesses have been forced to pass costs on to the consumer, fuelling inflation further. This is quickly becoming a vicious cycle. 

 

What we should really be talking about is the fact that New York and London have always been the culinary capitals of the world, alongside Tokyo and Paris. Until around 2017, New York was probably leading, then London truly came into its own. Coming out of covid, and despite the Brexit challenges, London was, without doubt, the culinary capital of the world. There was energy, creativity and ambition across every part of the sector, from fine dining to neighbourhood restaurants and bars. It felt like the UK was building something again. 

 

What is happening now, particularly through business rates and policies that are actively scaring away high-net-worth individuals and non-doms, is going to prevent the next generation of young chefs and restaurateurs from coming through. They simply won’t be able to afford to open, let alone operate, restaurants. Already, around 95% of the industry doesn’t make any real money. The vast majority of operators are working extraordinary hours for minimal return, driven by passion rather than profit. Pile on structural costs that cannot be flexed or negotiated, and what you create is not a challenging environment, but an impossible one. 

 

This will undoubtedly lead to bankruptcies and insolvencies, but more importantly, it will kill off a generation of new talent. The chefs, operators and entrepreneurs who should be opening their first or next restaurants in the UK are instead looking elsewhere. I already know many who are moving to Dubai, Spain, Milan, Ibiza and Madrid to open restaurants instead of staying in the UK, because it is no longer sustainable here. 

These are ambitious, globally mobile people. They will go where they are supported, where the numbers can work and where there is a sense that hospitality is valued rather than penalised. To exacerbate matters, over the last eight to 12 months, there has also been a significant outflow of management talent to these same countries. Between rising taxes and increasing concerns around safety, many no longer see a compelling reason to stay. What is particularly concerning is how many of these individuals are British nationals, whereas previously, this trend was driven largely by international talent. 

 

The long-term knock-on effect will be huge, not just for hospitality, but for tourism and the wider economy as a whole. Restaurants, bars, hotels, theatres and nightlife are a fundamental part of why people come to London and the UK. Our food scene is a major cultural and economic driver. It supports thousands of supply-chain businesses, from farmers and fishermen to designers, architects and artists. London is London because of all of these elements together, and right now, they are being actively weakened. 

 

When London sneezes, the rest of the UK catches a cold. That’s always been true. London sets the pace, the standards and the international perception of British hospitality. If you damage the ecosystem here, the effects are felt nationally and for a generation. It impacts regional tourism, national employment and the UK’s reputation as a global destination. At the moment, the marketplace is being undermined without proper thought for the long-term consequences. 

 

From a business perspective, the outcome is very clear. At Thesleff Group, we would prefer to invest more in the UK. We would prefer to grow here. London is our creative home, and it has played a huge role in shaping everything we do. But the reality is that our next £40m-£50m of investment will go outside the country. That is not because opportunity doesn’t exist here, it absolutely does. It is because the risk profile no longer makes sense versus the returns. 

 

That is £40m-£50m that could have stayed in the UK, creating 1,500-2,000 jobs, training teams, paying taxes, working with British suppliers and contributing to the cultural and economic life of this country. Instead, because of the current government’s strategies and actions, that investment will now go elsewhere. Other cities and countries are actively welcoming hospitality groups, recognising the value they bring and creating conditions where ambitious projects are possible. 

 

Hospitality is not a soft industry. It is infrastructure. It is employment. It is culture. It is tourism. It is one of the most powerful ways a country expresses itself to the world. If we continue down the current path, we are not just making it harder to open restaurants – we are quietly giving away one of Britain’s greatest global strengths.